FLOP WEEKEND THRE4D | EXPEND4BLES GIG4BOMBS WITH 8.0M OW | HORROR WINS, THE REST LOSES | The Post-Bomb Venice Thread and Pre-Bomb Creator Thread | WE BOMBING, BOYS!

[filmlover]

Hopefully the trio of new openers next week can provide a jolt to the box office collectively. I'm guessing Paw Patrol 2 takes advantage of the barren marketplace for family fare for a #1 opening.

[Krissykins]

Bring on Saw X and The Exorcist: Believer.

[Giorno]

The screen bleeding next week is gonna be crazy

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I understand this sentiment, but there is a reason why September and October are usually devoid of big releases: the Fall weekdays are terrible and really cut down overall grossing potential, plus major eyeball competition with America's Sport (football) on the weekends. The count of $150M grossing films to have ever released in September stands at FOUR - one of which was Shang-Chi, only getting that slot because of the pandemic schedule shuffling - and only 6 have ever reached even $130M. That's not an accident

 

Oh, but the competition is soft, so legs are better! Ok, a couple of Examples of legs:

• IT = $158.7M OWeek / $327.5M total = 2.06x
• Shang-Chi = $109.8M OWeek / $224.5M total = 2.04x
• Kingsman 3 = $49.7M OWeek / $100.2M total = 2.02x

 

So in theory, if MI7 had the same OWeek gross as it did in July ($91.1M), with those kind of limited competition legs, would have been expected to make ~$185M, or (only) ~$10M more

... BUT, without those sweet summer weekdays, it probably opens a bit softer, ~$85M or so for the first week and ends up pretty much exactly where it is now!

 

Did Oppenheimer cut into MI7's its legs? Absolutely. But this film just didn't have $200M worth of demand no matter what date is was released, and its well past time to just accept that reality. Same with D&D, which netted a 1.95x OWeek from its March release, and maybe in the weaker Fall squeaks over $100M, but likely not much more than that

 

What is surprising this month is the lack of horror releases.  This is when horror goes big, and we have ONE in theaters (Nun 2)?  Unless you really want to count A Haunting in Venice, too...

 

In the past, you'd have a new weekly horror outing almost every weekend from end of August to the week before Halloween.,,

[M37]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Hopefully the trio of new openers next week can provide a jolt to the box office collectively. I'm guessing Paw Patrol 2 takes advantage of the barren marketplace for family fare for a #1 opening.

Lyle Lyle Crocodile says hello

 

Along those lines, the fact that there's no family competition in the immediate future means there also no OW rush to go see it

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Lyle Lyle Crocodile says hello

 

Along those lines, the fact that there's no family competition in the immediate future means there also no OW rush to go see it

Sales are looking pretty big for next Saturday and Sunday near me and it's probably safe to assume there will be some sort of OW rush as part of a fully established property vs. a largely unproven entity. At the very least, it's likely winning those two days next weekend.

[Boxofficerules]

Come on Saw X

[M37]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

What is surprising this month is the lack of horror releases.  This is when horror goes big, and we have ONE in theaters (Nun 2)?  Unless you really want to count A Haunting in Venice, too...

 

In the past, you'd have a new weekly horror outing almost every weekend from end of August to the week before Halloween.,,

Not really every week, more like every other until mid to late October, starting with WB typically planting its horror flag on the post-Labor Day weekend, then the franchises picking up in late Sept into Oct. But also usually some "spooky" themed family films (Goosebumps, House w/ Clock on Walls, Miss Perrigrine, Maleficent, etc) mixed in ... but Disney dumped Haunted Mansion in August to have it on D+ for Halloween

[Eric Prime]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Sales are looking pretty big for next Saturday and Sunday near me and it's probably safe to assume there will be some sort of OW rush as part of a fully established property vs. a largely unproven entity. At the very least, it's likely winning those two days next weekend.

Ah yes. The very devoted Paw Patrol fanbase. Those 3 year olds have to see the movie right away, or else they'll avoid getting spoiled on whether Chase dies or not.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not really every week, more like every other until mid to late October, starting with WB typically planting its horror flag on the post-Labor Day weekend, then the franchises picking up in late Sept into Oct. But also usually some "spooky" themed family films (Goosebumps, House w/ Clock on Walls, Miss Perrigrine, Maleficent, etc) mixed in ... but Disney dumped Haunted Mansion in August to have it on D+ for Halloween

 

Actually, I think Haunted Mansion is on D+ October 4 - Disney didn't even want to wait for Halloween...that might be for A Haunting in Venice to debut...

[Eric Prime]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

What is surprising this month is the lack of horror releases.  This is when horror goes big, and we have ONE in theaters (Nun 2)?  Unless you really want to count A Haunting in Venice, too...

 

In the past, you'd have a new weekly horror outing almost every weekend from end of August to the week before Halloween.,,

I mean we basically have that already? We had Voyage of the Demeter in mid-August, followed by Nun 2 a couple weeks later. Haunting in Venice is definitely a horror movie IMO, having seen it myself, and that dropped a week after Nun 2. We have a lull this weekend, but now we have the new Saw movie next week. Then Exorcist the week after, two weeks of no horror (but I mean with Tay Tay coming in the picture, can you blame them?), and then FNAF to round everything up. Like that's a typical August-October period for horror, just slightly more spaced out.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Eric Ross said:

Ah yes. The very devoted Paw Patrol fanbase. Those 3 year olds have to see the movie right away, or else they'll avoid getting spoiled on whether Chase dies or not.

...are we sure that isn't an actual Paw Patrol 2 spoiler?

 

[Eric Prime]

Though really, at least from a glance at the Tracking Thread, it seems Saw X is doing solid business compared to Nun 2, which inexplicably got to 30M+. Haven't paid too close attention, and I doubt it will go that high considering its more niche, but high teens seems like a possibility, which is a pretty easy #1 victory.

 

In fact, if Expendables really starts to fall apart over the weekend (not impossible!), we could have four weeks in a row where the #1 movie is based off a James Wan franchise. You don't see that every day.

[Gavin Feng]

https://x.com/Variety/status/1705600921609089191?s=20

 

[Issac Newton]

Expend4bles 

 

$3.0M OD (incl. $750K previews)

[Issac Newton]

WAY TOO EARLY TOP 5

 

1. THE NUN II ($8M)

2. EXPEND4ABLES ($7.9999M)

3. A HAUNTING IN VENICE ($6M)

4. THE THREEQUELIZER ($4.7M)

5. BARBIE ($2.75M)

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

It Lives Inside

 

$1.0M FRI (WKend Forecast $2.5M)