WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[ringedmortality]

15 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

TCP's embargo had dropped earlier and it got a 50%, people would have still been surprised by its snub at the GGs,

 

I think in that scenario everyone would have predicted Wonka instead, which also got snubbed.

[MovieMan89]

53 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Chances of Color Purple getting bad reviews are near zero IMO. This is the type of movie that critics usually eat up. Just not seeing any way it gets worse RT than, say, TLM level reviews. Prob gets 85-90% RT.

Again, who is saying it’s getting bad reviews?? Who even said worse than TLM? 
 

All of the hype I’ve heard has to do with the acting though, and there’s usually a critical pattern for those kind of acting driven musicals. 70s seems likely to me, not sure why that would be considered a trashing… 

[vale9001]

we're talking about the same "academy" has nominated  The Prom as comedy-movie so i can see why people were expecting TCP and Wonka to be there but...this year honestly the comedy-musical category is very very strong....barbie, american fiction, the holdovers, may december, poor things... i mean they all are in conversations to get a very likely Best Picture nomination at The Oscars.... yeah we could have expected one of the two musicals instead of Air but that was a very liked movie too and you have Chalamet in the cerimony because of his nomination, same for Fantasia... while you need Air in the movie cateory to have Ben and J. Lo 🤣

Edited December 19, 2023 by vale9001

[titanic2187]

16 hours ago, M37 said:

If one don’t understand why there is significant difference between a stand-alone 12/15 opening and a Wed 12/20 one, in the shadow of a 300 pound gorilla in TLJ, then there is nothing left to discuss 
 

Can’t just scream “holiday legs” and ignore the underlying dynamics that hold true even in December, just to be able to root for an outcome to happen

 

Wonka should be at $150-$170M by the end of its 3rd week (1/04) 

One thing about leg is, the small OW is not a guarantee for good legs, Barbieheimer and Mario + Air are two pairs to prove that smaller isn't translating to better hold.

 

Barbie's OW : 162m > Final: 636m (3.9x)

Oppenheimer's OW: 84m > Final: 327m (3.9x)

 

Mario's 5 day OW: 204m > Final: 574m (2.8x)

AIR's 5 day OW: 20m > Final: 53m (2.6x)

 

It is very clear Oppenheimer and AIR being smaller didn't reward them a better legs as compared to their bigger counterpart like barbie and Mario. They legs out similarly despite reception aren't worse. 

 

Likewise for December release, one just can't expect legs to solve the problem. OW determine just how much volume of WOM going around in the market. Yeah you can say PIB2 as a classic example but to be honest, I seriously think PIB2's leg will be as good as had it opened to 20m OW. A Bigger OW likely won't cut PIB2's leg substantially.  

 

 

 

[baumer]

On 12/18/2023 at 12:14 PM, ChipDerby said:

 

People aren't rational! That's why we track box office. No "analysis" told us Sound of Freedom was going to make almost $200 mil, because it was irrational. I remember when Wonder Woman came out and everyone was adamant that it wouldn't make $300 mil AFTER it opened. Let alone $412 mil. Things happen. @baumer should even know this, as we essentially drove someone off this site for saying WW wouldn't hit $400 mil instead of him paying $1,000.

 

Going around telling people something won't happen makes you THAT guy. 

 

I just want to clear one thing up that you said here. Nobody drove him off the site after he lost a bet. For months while Wonder woman had its run he was argumentative, insulted everybody and even made fun of what I did for a living. Nobody was going to force him to pay $1,000 and that was the number he threw out after Wonder woman's opening weekend.

 

We are living in a different age of box office then we were even 4 years ago maybe even 3 years ago. Films start to stream a lot quicker than they used to and that's one of the reasons why I'm saying I don't see how this movie makes a seven multiplier even over the holidays. Do I think there's a slight chance that it could? No I don't.