Best Picture predictions 2024

[filmlover]

48 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

 

While I think Green Book would have still been seen as a white savior movie, I think Three Billboards got hit the hardest by Trump-era progressivism. If Three Billboards was released three years earlier it would have been seen as a progressive film. La La Land also got hit by the Trump politics of the time, especially since it's competition was Moonlight. So it automatically became the conservative option.

 

Three Billboards should have won over Shape of Water smh.

It was popular at the time to blame the over the top Internet backlash over La La Land's loss but in reality it likely had little effect. They probably felt rewarding a love letter to classic Hollywood movies was a bit too on the nose even for them. As much as their detractors like to claim otherwise, the Oscars don't like being too predictable, even something as old-fashioned on the surface as Green Book was an outside the box pick for them considering it came from an unlikely and unusual director choice. Also, I do think the intense (and quite frankly, equally absurd) backlash that movie received probably helped it in giving it a sympathetic narrative that translated to a win. Nobody likes to feel as if they're being bullied into voting against a project and/or being told what to vote for, period.

[ringedmortality]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It was popular at the time to blame the over the top Internet backlash over La La Land's loss but in reality it likely had little effect. They probably felt rewarding a love letter to classic Hollywood movies was a bit too on the nose even for them. As much as their detractors like to claim otherwise, the Oscars don't like being too predictable, even something as old-fashioned on the surface as Green Book was an outside the box pick for them considering it came from an unlikely and unusual director choice. Also, I do think the intense (and quite frankly, equally absurd) backlash that movie received probably helped it in giving it a sympathetic narrative that translated to a win. Nobody likes to feel as if they're being bullied into voting against a project and/or being told what to vote for, period.

 

I think there was a push from younger voters to give Moonlight the Best Picture win to show how progressive they are. I think the Trump of it all during the time is what gave it the final push needed to win.

 

I remember this: https://www.indiewire.com/features/general/mark-duplass-moonlight-best-picture-open-letter-1201785302/

[WorkingonaName]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

 

I think there was a push from younger voters to give Moonlight the Best Picture win to show how progressive they are. I think the Trump of it all during the time is what gave it the final push needed to win.

 

I remember this: https://www.indiewire.com/features/general/mark-duplass-moonlight-best-picture-open-letter-1201785302/

Dude needs a better haircut.

[AniNate]

I don't recall La La being a big conservative pet in the awards season discourse. It would require a ton of cognitive dissonance for them to promote a musical ode to the city that represents everything they hate about their political enemies, even if it did star two hot white people.

 

 

Edited August 16 by AniNate

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I don't recall La La being a big conservative pet in the awards season discourse. It would require a ton of cognitive dissonance for them to promote a musical ode to the city that represents everything they hate about their political enemies, even if it did star two hot white people.

 

 

I mostly remember this over the top think piece: I'm an Arab actor who's been asked to audition for the role of terrorist more than 30 times. If La La Land cleans up at the Oscars, I'm done | The Independent | The Independent

 

Looking up the author's Wikipedia page, their most major acting credit since then is a nothing role in Venom 2. Well, beats being unemployed, I imagine.

[titanic2187]

On 8/16/2024 at 11:17 PM, filmlover said:

It was popular at the time to blame the over the top Internet backlash over La La Land's loss but in reality it likely had little effect. They probably felt rewarding a love letter to classic Hollywood movies was a bit too on the nose even for them. As much as their detractors like to claim otherwise, the Oscars don't like being too predictable, even something as old-fashioned on the surface as Green Book was an outside the box pick for them considering it came from an unlikely and unusual director choice. Also, I do think the intense (and quite frankly, equally absurd) backlash that movie received probably helped it in giving it a sympathetic narrative that translated to a win. Nobody likes to feel as if they're being bullied into voting against a project and/or being told what to vote for, period.

 

In recent years, the BP winner seem to be flip-flopping between a highly refreshing choice to a traditional winner. Like in one year we got Moonlight but they pick GB 2 years after, immediately followed first foreign language winner Parasite and go back to safe choice like CODA. And flip again to first "real" sci-fi comedy win for EEAAO but went all white-male mode for in an Oscar-baity subject matter.   

[filmlover]

 

[Cmasterclay]

Some last pre-fest predictions, sure to be very wrong!

 

Picture (in rough order of winning chances)

1. Nickel Boys (winner)

2. Dune 2

3. Anora

4. Emilia Perez

5. Sing Sing

6. Blitz

7. Gladiator 2

8. The Room Next Door

9. Conclave

10. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig

Could def see it for Saturday Night or Joker 2 if they are good, obviously Complete Unknown and Queer potent contenders too.

 

Director

1. Villeneuvue, Dune 2

2. Baker, Anora

3. Ross, Nickel Boys

4. McQueen, Blitz

5. Rasoulouf, Seed of Sacred Fig

 

Actor

1. Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Phoenix, Joker 2

3. Chalamet, Complete Unknown

4. Mescal, Gladiator 2

5. Fiennes, Conclave

 

Actress

1. Gascon, Emilia Perez

2. Madison, Anora

3. Jolie, Maria

4. Swinton, Room Next Door

5. Ronan, The Outrun

 

Supporting Actor

1. Maclin, Sing Sing

2. Denzel, Gladiator 2

3. Culkin, A Real Pain

4. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

5. Hechinger, Nickel Boys

 

Supporting Actress

1. Saldana, Emilia Perez

2. Deadwyler, Piano Lesson

3. Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

4. Moore, Room Next Door

5. Ronan, Blitz (The double nom!!)

 

 

Edited August 28 by Cmasterclay

[filmlover]

Gonna be some fascinating developments from Venice the next several days. Wolfs and Maria screening days apart means the Brangelina confrontation should be a bare minimum, but how will Phoenix handle the press conference in which questions about his recent act of unprofessionalism (and a potential lawsuit that might be brewing because of it) are bound to come up?

 

Here's when to expect reviews/reactions for the big ones:

 

8/29: Maria

9/1: Wolfs, The Brutalist

9/2: The Room Next Door

9/3: Queer

9/4: Joker

[filmlover]

Golden Globes news. On one hand, less of a "Who?!" gif than some of their recent hosting choices but on the other, she can be quite merciless in her roasts. 

 

 

[Rorschach]

 

[filmlover]

Netflix picked up Maria as well so it's safe to assume we know who their Actress push (and A24's #1 Actor push) is at this point.

[filmlover]

Telluride slate released:

 

Telluride Film Festival 2024 Lineup: 'Saturday Night', 'Conclave', More (deadline.com)

 

Titles of note:

 

Better Man

Conclave

The End

The Friend

Nickel Boys

The Piano Lesson

Piece by Piece

Saturday Night

[vale9001]

Maria like Spencer we'll only get a nomination for the main actress (and of course it's still not 100% sure, we need to see how the season evolves) and that's all. 

 

A second nomination but way less probable is for the costume design cause they are more "period drama" and less modern than Spencer ones (we know how much they love old clothes 😅)

Edited August 31 by vale9001

[filmlover]

Babygirl is sitting at an 82 on MC. Not sure how much of an awards player it will be (A24 is opening it in the right before Christmas spot ala The Iron Claw), but one to look out for regardless.

 

Conclave is also getting early praise, for Ralph Fieness especially.

[WorkingonaName]

Brutalist is gonna be a top contender,  Would be funny if Brody won for 2 holocaust movies. 

[filmlover]

Depends on who gets it since it's currently without a distributor. At 215 minutes, it's not going to be an easy pickup.

[filmlover]

September 5 has a lot of buzz coming out of Telluride and is expected to land a major distributor soon. Have we found our surprise contender?

[lorddemaxus]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

September 5 has a lot of buzz coming out of Telluride and is expected to land a major distributor soon. Have we found our surprise contender?

Sorry, but no one has actually talked about this film. The only thing they have going for it is “narrative” (which has more controversy attached to it than anything). Quite frankly find this article and the one by Variety to be quite sus considering I haven’t heard a single person of importance who went to either Venice and Telluride talk about it.  Feels like a story put out by the producers to get a distributor attached to it

Edited September 3 by lorddemaxus

[WorkingonaName]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

September 5 has a lot of buzz coming out of Telluride and is expected to land a major distributor soon. Have we found our surprise contender?

If Munich blanked then I don't see a likely lesser version amounting to anything.