Weekdays Thread (2/12-15) | V-Day #s: Marley 14, Web 6, ABY 1.2, Argylle 1.1

[TMP]

56 minutes ago, Eric Web said:

 Is Bob Marley really that big of a deal and I just never noticed?

If you’ve ever lived in a college town, gone to a weed store or even eaten at a soul food restaurant you’ll see just how big Marley is. This movie hits the perfect cross-road of being based on someone that everyone knows & loves but whose story isn’t as well publicized compared to his legacy.

[Eric S'ennui]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

If you’ve ever lived in a college town, gone to a weed store or even eaten at a soul food restaurant you’ll see just how big Marley is. This movie hits the perfect cross-road of being based on someone that everyone knows & loves but whose story isn’t as well publicized compared to his legacy.

Well that answers that question. I'm a queer white boy who's lived in the suburbs my whole life, only had a gummy once in my life that I don't think ever actually did anything, and I live with parents who hate soul food and only listen to 60s and 70s rock bands. So I'm in the wrong neighborhood apparently

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, Eric Web said:

I'm never really good at deciphering how big certain musical acts are in the current zeitgeist and pop culture landscape. I was even down on Elvis for the longest time (though in my defense, it wasn't that I was doubting his popularity, it was more doubting whether old people would show up). But Bob Marley's performance is legit shocking to me. Like even with it being inevitably frontloaded af, its 30M+ 5-Day is what I expected the film to finish at even just a few weeks ago. My thought process was that he was always a "loved, but not idolized" figure a la Aretha Franklin. Is Bob Marley really that big of a deal and I just never noticed?

I followed music charts when I was younger, Legend (Bob Marley and the Wailers' greatest hits album) was a steady seller on the Billboard album charts well into the 2000s and 2010s. Even in the 2020s a resort chain like Sandals was using "One Love" in their ads. Marley is like Queen where people too young for their heyday have still been exposed to more of the music than they realize.

 

 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Wonder how well the Amy Winehouse movie will do later this year. A nonevent, I'm guessing (like Whitney, everyone knows her life was highly depressing and then there's the recency of it all, plus it's being released by Focus).

I think the Amy Winehouse movie will run into "too soon, they're exploiting her" problems. The movie's production has her father's involvement and her fans dislike him, think he was not a good parent to her in life and is flogging her memory for money. There's skepticism about the Amy casting. Sam Taylor-Johnson is directing so Twitter will hate it.

 

 

37 minutes ago, TMP said:

If you’ve ever lived in a college town, gone to a weed store or even eaten at a soul food restaurant you’ll see just how big Marley is. This movie hits the perfect cross-road of being based on someone that everyone knows & loves but whose story isn’t as well publicized compared to his legacy.

Yeah, lots of Bob Marley posters in American college dorm rooms.

Edited February 15 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[TMP]

Just now, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Yeah, lots of Bob Marley posters in American college dorm rooms.

We used to spend late nights smoking reefer with the boys; now we up at 3 am crunching excel files. The remembrance of things past…

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, Alexander said:

70M budget and OS probably won't count for more than 30-35% so this may not make any money in theaters.

 

70M? Oh no.

[Eric S'ennui]

 

[WorkingonaName]

9 minutes ago, TMP said:

We used to spend late nights smoking reefer with the boys; now we up at 3 am crunching excel files. The remembrance of things past…

Sounds like you switched to Meth.

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited February 15 by kayumanggi

[Cmasterclay]

A rare Cmasterclay W on the One Love number - I've been calling it for weeks. As much as I love these boards and find it full of brilliant people, some of the posts about Marley and his place in the culture were stark reminders that this place is still an internet message board of young white guys. Never made sense to comp it to Whitney or Aretha remotely - Marley transcends in a different way (also both those movies would have made more money in their own right without COVID and poor marketing). 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited February 15 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[titanic2187]

A pleasant surprise that the biggest mid-week VD since 2017 is happening when we thought VD is gonna be a wasteland like 2023 and 2022. Still not calling One love the first 100m movie of 2024 no matter how great the WOM is if TCP offered any lesson about a big OD with great WOM.

[Eric S'ennui]

13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A rare Cmasterclay W on the One Love number - I've been calling it for weeks. As much as I love these boards and find it full of brilliant people, some of the posts about Marley and his place in the culture were stark reminders that this place is still an internet message board of young white guys. Never made sense to comp it to Whitney or Aretha remotely - Marley transcends in a different way (also both those movies would have made more money in their own right without COVID and poor marketing). 

Oh, I won't argue in Whitney's case, that her movie should have done way better than it actually did and that Sony fumbled the bag big time when it came to advertising and promoting the film as the event it should have been. But maybe this is my white boy background talking, and I'm more of a huge Whitney fan anyways, but it always felt like she was a bigger deal than Marley? Like The Bodyguard soundtrack is still one of the most successful music albums in history. Her numbers haven't been matched until Adele and Taylor Swift. Her death was an event on par with the death of Michael Jackson. The planned Whitney tribute was cited as one of, if not the biggest reason the Grammy Awards that year saw a ratings high the ceremony has never achieved since. Like it always felt like she was a bigger deal than Bob Marley to me, and that her movie would have a 14M OD. Guess I was wrong.

 

But I guess in hindsight, it also helps that Ziggy Marley has been an active part of the music business for decades and has kept his name alive for so many. There's a reason why the bigger biopics typically have the subject, or powerful people associated to the subject, alive to promote the movie project (BoRhap w/ Brian May and Adam Lambert, Elvis w/ Priscilla Presley, Rocketman, Compton).

[Kon]

12 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

It shouldn't be so surprising, but the increase of ABY for VD is really good.

Edited February 15 by Kon

[JonathanMB]

14 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Its biggest midweek number since MLK Day a full month ago. Still love that they managed to stay in theaters for nearly two months and get a Valentine's bump when everyone insisted it should open this month instead. 

[vafrow]

I'm throwing this link in here. It's @M37 analysis of what type of multiples we can see off a Valentine's Day opener.

 

 

Historical comparables are very light. There's been few cases of mid week openers like this.

 

The multiple to get to the 6 day weekend ranges from around 4 to 5.25. I'm rounding down slightly on the low end, since these are old comps, and it's more likely things have become more front loaded.

 

This leaves One Love in the range of $56-74M. Based on what we're seeing on the Thursday sales, I think a lot of demand was consumed up front, and this might hit the lower end despite the strong Cinemascore, but I'm guessing if it does, it may stabilize after that.

 

MW is in trouble, with a range of $24-32M.

 

If we can say this wasn't a true Valentine's Day draw (uncertain), maybe this can strive for the mid point. But, it's an uphill climb with a C+ score.

[JustWatching]

42 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A rare Cmasterclay W on the One Love number - I've been calling it for weeks. As much as I love these boards and find it full of brilliant people, some of the posts about Marley and his place in the culture were stark reminders that this place is still an internet message board of young white guys. Never made sense to comp it to Whitney or Aretha remotely - Marley transcends in a different way (also both those movies would have made more money in their own right without COVID and poor marketing). 

I completely agree and think people are still underestimating OL, both domestically and internationally.

[Krissykins]

Yeh Bob Marley did £1.8m here in the UK yesterday at #1. 
 

$14m and $6m is more than expected for both to be fair. Was thinking $10m and $4-5m. 

[Krissykins]

I’m dreading the Michael Jackson film. He gives me the ultimate ick.