Weekend Numbers | actuals | 30.15M KFP IV | 28.50M DUNE II

[AniNate]

We should get one more of a boost vs 2023 when Godzilla comes out, but the next six months look like they're pretty much gonna be an uphill climb from there. Hopefully the Aug/Sep/Oct slate doesn't change much because the way it's looking it's got real potential to make up for the dead Jan/Feb

 

 

Edited March 16 by AniNate

[Eric the Ape]

This is also a very strong second Friday for Panda. Its 101% jump from Thursday is well ahead of Dragon 3 on the exact same date (+77%), and following the rest of Dragon 3's run from the Deadline weekend projection gives it 180M. Still up in the air, but 200M+ is still possible considering how barren the next few months are, especially for animated movies.

[Squire]

12 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

Dunno if this has been discussed yet, but Dune 2's 2nd week drop was better than Oppenheimer's (-41.3% vs. -43.7%). 

 

If weekly drops are exact same as Oppy from here, Dune 2 would be heading for $290m+ per my math. 

 

If they continue to be better (e.g., -33% drop this week vs. -36% for Oppy), $300m+ would still be in play. 

 

Not predicting, just observing  

It’s amazing how well Dune is doing relative to Oppenheimer considering it doesn’t have some of the same advantages that movie had (summer legs, Barbieheimer phenomenon, and weak post-release competition for several weeks). 
 

Next two weeks will be the real test for Dune’s legs with Ghostbusters and Godzilla x Kong coming out. Ghostbusters won’t really be a major threat internationally unlike GxK, but both will be threats on Dune’s domestic legs. 

[AniNate]

Dune should be fine against Ghostbusters, don't think there is all that much upfront hype for it and I'm gonna go out on a limb and say reviews won't be nearly as good. Godzilla may be more of a threat being a week later and another dramatic PG-13 spectacle.

[Squire]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Dune should be fine against Ghostbusters, don't think there is all that much upfront hype for it and I'm gonna go out on a limb and say reviews won't be nearly as good. Godzilla may be more of a threat being a week later and another dramatic PG-13 spectacle.

Aren’t the presales pretty good? Or maybe they’ve slowed down? 

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, Squire said:

What is the general reasonable consensus on Dune Part 2’s projected WW total when its run is finished? Still a shot at $700M WW? Or has the performance in Asia plus lack of Russia killed that dream? 

 

More likely than not to go over $700m WW. Almost highly likely to pass $275m DOM and $425m OS. Both staying under those numbers unlikely. I'm doing comparison market to market OS Dune 1 and 2 this weekend but I guess we're expecting it to hit between $700-750m WW with a small chance it goes under and smallish chance it'll go over.

[Eric the Ape]

9 minutes ago, Squire said:

Aren’t the presales pretty good? Or maybe they’ve slowed down? 

They've generally been trending for an opening under Afterlife. And nowadays, the vibes from the Tracking Team is around 35M or so. Which makes sense. Law of average typically means there's got to be one underperformer in sea of overperformers, and Ghostbusters has the least going for it out of all the big March movies.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, Chaz said:

I was not at all surprised about Kung Fu Panda 3, but Kung Fu Panda 2 really shocked me. It had a prime release date, fantastic reviews, yet opened and grossed well below the first. 
 

It’s such a great movie.

Exactly! And the fact that the ending scene in the second film really showed that Po’s biological dad (Li Shan) was indeed alive and that there was the panda village which was fully utilized in the third film. 👩🏻‍💼🤩

 

Panda 2 had a lot of box office momentum after the first film. A well-liked first film, first animated film in the summer of 2011….and yet never got even close to KFP1’s DOM gross. Granted it beat the first film’s WW-gross, thanks to OS…but it never went close or even way above it’s predecessor in the domestic market. 😢😔

 

Considering we have seen big animated sequels to first films increase a lot.

Shrek < Shrek 2

Despicable Me < Despicable Me 2

Toy Story < Toy Story 2

Frozen < Frozen 2

 

And then we have well-liked animated sequels that didn’t increase but rather decreased, DOM-wise.

This and another critically liked Dreamworks sequel “How To Train Your Dragon 2” which came out in 2014 (three years after Panda 2).

 

What did those two animated sequels not have that the ones (that did increase from their first films) did have? Despite those said two sequels being more fueled by emotional storytelling. 🤔

[filmlover]

Bob Marley is going to fall short of $100M at this point unless Paramount really pushes it there, but their next movie isn't for another two months (IF) so the only way it reaches the mark is if they pull a Passengers and really drag its run out.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

KFP2 was a favourite to win that summer IIRC. Opening the same day as Hangover 2 just smashing the old R-rated OW record hurt it for sure.

True. Despite those two being counter-programming on the same weekend in terms of the types of films they are (One comedy sequel that is R-rated and more for adults, while the other is an animated sequel for the families), Kung Fu Panda 2 did not make over $200M+ DOM like the film it competed against (The Hangover: Part 2).

 

Fortunately for Dreamworks, they did have an animated sequel the year after (2012), that DID overshadow the R-rated summer blockbuster, when Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted vastly beat out the sci-fi horror film “Prometheus” by a landslide. And that was 12 years ago! So much has passed. 🤯

[Squire]

21 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

They've generally been trending for an opening under Afterlife. And nowadays, the vibes from the Tracking Team is around 35M or so. Which makes sense. Law of average typically means there's got to be one underperformer in sea of overperformers, and Ghostbusters has the least going for it out of all the big March movies.

That’s a good point. Could be pretty ugly if reviews aren’t good.

 

I don’t know why Sony put it in March. They could have put it in April or later in the year. 

[Joel M]

12 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

And then we have well-liked animated sequels that didn’t increase but rather decreased, DOM-wise.

This and another critically liked Dreamworks sequel “How To Train Your Dragon 2” which came out in 2014 (three years after Panda 2).

 

What did those two animated sequels not have that the ones (that did increase from their first films) did have? Despite those said two sequels being more fueled by emotional storytelling. 🤔

 

I think that was partially a by-product of the change in popularity of animation brands that was happening at the time. The 2000s were PIXAR vs DW with everyone else a very distant third.

During 2010 in the shadow of TS3 and Shrek 4, Illumination broke out with Despicable Me and WDAS had a comeback with Tangled. The tide shifted quickly after that and suddenly Princesses and Minions were all the rage, while PIXAR and DW started feeling a bit played out for a time.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

 

1 minute ago, Joel M said:

 

I think that was partially a by-product of the change in popularity of animation brands that was happening at the time. The 2000s were PIXAR vs DW with everyone else a very distant third.

During 2010 in the shadow of TS3 and Shrek 4, Illumination broke out with Despicable Me and WDAS had a comeback with Tangled. The tide shifted quickly after that and suddenly Princesses and Minions were all the rage, while PIXAR and DW started feeling a bit played out for a time.

To be fair to Pixar though, some of their biggest animated sequels like Finding Dory, Incredibles 2 & Toy Story 4 did increase over their previous films. First two being first sequels that increased big (or insanely huge in Incredibles 2’s case), and one fourthquel that had a small but sure bump from the third film.

 

And so far even after 6 years, Incredibles 2 still holds the golden crown as the highest grossing animated film in DOM-gross. With Illumination’s The Super Mario Bros Movie being a close second silver place.

[Liiviig 1998]

How to train your dragon 2 domestic run was just so bizzare to me. Some projections had it as high as 325m Dom final.

OS came  through for it though same as panda 2.

 

 

[filmlover]

DreamWorks started really losing their power in the early 2010s after ruling most of the aughts, something that would continue through the decade with a mixture of box office flops and cancelled projects that were well into development. Today, under the Universal acquisition, everyone who oversaw the company during its heyday have been largely replaced with Yes Folks.

 

What'll be even more fascinating to see is how the live-action How to Train Your Dragon does next year, since it'll be a test as to whether there's a marketplace for live-action remakes of non-Disney hits. If that's a hit, it wouldn't be a surprise if Sony immediately commissioned a live-action Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs to be fast-tracked for 2027.

[Eric the Ape]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

it wouldn't be a surprise if Sony immediately commissioned a live-action Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs to be fast-tracked for 2027.

...

[AniNate]

It's too bad Wild Robot is coming out when they've already made the decision to outsource most of their animation production. Seems like their most ambitious creative effort since the first HTTYD. I suppose one can hope it strengthens Chris Sanders' clout at least, whether it means doing the rest of the trilogy or something else original.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

...

lol you would? I certainly wouldn't.  Especially since Sony seems desperate for some IPs these days.

 

Rule of thumb seems to be that the most remake-able types are the ones that have plenty of human characters in them, unless it's guaranteed to make far too much money to pass on (see: Lion King '19).

[AniNate]

Meatballs seems like a big stretch, it's not like the movies were THAT big of hits, I also feel like Lord/Miller and everyone else are much more interested in exploiting the Spiderverse IP at this point

[MrFanaticGuy34]

9 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

How to train your dragon 2 domestic run was just so bizzare to me. Some projections had it as high as 325m Dom final.

OS came  through for it though same as panda 2.

 

 

Yeah. It’s not like there was any other big animated film that summer of 2014, that would steal Dragon 2’s thunder or cut it’s legs off. Even Planes 2 which came in July, wasn’t really a big animated film to begin with. So what other movie prevented HTTYD2 from grossing $200M+ DOM or increasing from the first film’s numbers, despite this being another great animated sequel? Who knows? 🤷🏻‍♀️