Weekend Numbers [June 07-09, 2024] | actuals | 56.5M BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE | 10.0M GARFIELD | 7.8M IF | 7.0M THE WATCHERS

[kayumanggi]

 

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

With 5.88m, BB4. would need 8.5x IM to hit 50m. That is a very high IM for a live action movie, let alone a R-rated summer flick. Apes, show a better late surge than BB in presale, only managed to get 8.8x IM with MD boost. I can't say I am confident with 50m OW. I haven't seen the gender breakdown but it is safe to say lower female audience turnout is again to "blame" for the drop from BB3. BB3 actually had a good female % for action flick at 44%, a % I doubt BB4 can come close to. 

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-bad-boys-ride-or-die-1235961796/

 

Quote

Demos, which change throughout the weekend, were 36% Black, 29% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Caucasian, 10% Asian, and 4% other. Men over 25 were dominant at 40% followed by women over 25 at 38%.

 

[Joyous Legion]

No idea how this myth of “ @charlie Jatinder overestimates previews” got started but if you just look at the nums it is pretty clearly not true. Sometimes bit more sometimes bit less, pretty close to 50/50 ratio in direction and small in magnitude, exactly what you’d want out of highest possible quality est

Edited June 7 by Legion Again

[titanic2187]

I just realised even if BB4 managed to break 50m or even close to 60m, there are still chance the aggregate weekend number come below 100m in the middle of summer. Also, Sony will likely take first and second place this weekend, at least compensating them in someway during the absence to the sequel of ATSV.

 

 

[John Marston]

Bad Boys 3 was a comeback after 17 years while 4 is just “ more of the same”. Don’t see why it would have topped that movie 

[Kon]

16 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-bad-boys-ride-or-die-1235961796/

 

 

Well, it seems this action movie isn't really rejected by female audience, since female over 25 (38%) is close to male over 25 (40%).

 

We don't know this demographic for audience under 25, but it's a small part of the audience.

Edited June 7 by Kon

[Reed121]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Bad Boys 3 was a comeback after 17 years while 4 is just “ more of the same”. Don’t see why it would have topped that movie 

It seems 4 has better word of mouth than 3.

[titanic2187]

 

Quote

Audience reaction last night to the Will Smith-Martin Lawrence reteam was 5 stars and 88% positive on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak, while Rotten Tomatoes audience score stands at 97%.

 

Looks like A cinemascore to me. Both Father Day and Juneteenth should give material boost to the movie.

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

No idea how this myth of “ @charlie Jatinder overestimates previews” got started but if you just look at the nums it is pretty clearly not true. Sometimes bit more sometimes bit less, pretty close to 50/50 ratio in direction and small in magnitude, exactly what you’d want out of highest possible quality est

I mean reported previews aren't even actuals, they are "estimates" by studios. Sometimes they round up, sometimes they don't. Sometimes they include early shows, sometimes they don't.

[Kon]

33 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

With 5.88m, BB4. would need 8.5x IM to hit 50m. That is a very high IM for a live action movie, let alone a R-rated summer flick. Apes, show a better late surge than BB in presale, only managed to get 8.8x IM with MD boost. I can't say I am confident with 50m OW. I haven't seen the gender breakdown but it is safe to say lower female audience turnout is again to "blame" for the drop from BB3. BB3 actually had a good female % for action flick at 44%, a % I doubt BB4 can come close to. 

We don't know the percentage for women under 25, but women over 25 seems to be 40% of the audience. So, the female % for BB4 seems to be similar (or bigger) than BB3.

 

It's interesting how Bad Boys 4 could get a bigger female audience than Furiosa.

Edited June 7 by Kon

[Eric is Quiet]

17 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

No idea how this myth of “ @charlie Jatinder overestimates previews” got started but if you just look at the nums it is pretty clearly not true. Sometimes bit more sometimes bit less, pretty close to 50/50 ratio in direction and small in magnitude, exactly what you’d want out of highest possible quality est

Two weeks ago, Charlie's projections were 2.5M for Garfield and 4M for Furiosa. It went 1.9M and. 3.5M. Big drops. Charlie said 7M for Kingdom of the Apes, then it went lower at 6.6M. Challengers he had at 2.5M, then the actual was 1.9M. Civil War he had at 3.5M previews, and it was 2.9M.

 

Like...yeah. He does overestimate previews. And in some cases, like Furiosa or Challengers, that's a pretty significant amount. Is it every single time? Of course not. But this has been a pretty consistent pattern of Charlie's. And I think it's fair to call it out when it happens this many times in the span of a few weeks. I'm clearly outnumbered in people thinking it should still be posted. But Charlie needs to figure out how to fix up his projections when he tweets this stuff out. Because this information isn't helpful. If anything, it makes things way worse for all parties.

[AniNate]

I mostly wish he would drop the plus. No one will care if the number is a little off but adding a + sets up a high expectation, and if it's - even by a little bit the board freaks out.

 

Like even now, that 5.88 could've been an "oh nice, it came in over the estimate" instead of "so it performed as expected"

 

 

Edited June 7 by AniNate

[Eric is Quiet]

Just now, AniNate said:

I mostly wish he would drop the plus. No one will care if the number is a little off but adding a + sets up a high expectation, and if it's - even by a little bit the board freaks out

That's also a big problem. Like I didn't bring it up, but he said IF was going to have "1.8M+ previews". That implies 1.8M is the minimum it can do. When it goes to 1.75M...yeah, I got a problem with that. Because you just said it did lower than even what is posted as the "low end". I'm sure that's not Charlie's intentions, but intentions don't equal actions.

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, Kon said:

It's interesting how Bad Boys 4 could get a bigger female audience than Furiosa.

Not really? Even with his image taking a bit of a hit from the Oscars mess, Smith remains one of the most famous people on the planet who is a draw to all demos in the right projects, and this franchise in general tends to play to an older crowd at this point (as expected for a series in which both leads are in their mid/late 50s). 

[kayumanggi]

I remember back in the day, the forum just depended on Nikki Finke's very early numbers and we knew that they could be off because of how early they were reported. We enjoyed how the numbers changed throughout the day until the studios released their estimates. Fun times.

[Shadow2001]

So sad so bad that a Nepo Baby's bad movie isn't going to do so well.

Edited June 7 by Shadow2001

[Joyous Legion]

28 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

Two weeks ago, Charlie's projections were 2.5M for Garfield and 4M for Furiosa. It went 1.9M and. 3.5M. Big drops. Charlie said 7M for Kingdom of the Apes, then it went lower at 6.6M. Challengers he had at 2.5M, then the actual was 1.9M. Civil War he had at 3.5M previews, and it was 2.9M.

 

Like...yeah. He does overestimate previews. And in some cases, like Furiosa or Challengers, that's a pretty significant amount. Is it every single time? Of course not. But this has been a pretty consistent pattern of Charlie's. And I think it's fair to call it out when it happens this many times in the span of a few weeks. I'm clearly outnumbered in people thinking it should still be posted. But Charlie needs to figure out how to fix up his projections when he tweets this stuff out. Because this information isn't helpful. If anything, it makes things way worse for all parties.

No, it’s absolutely not a consistent pattern. You just decided to list one half without paying attention to all the ones recently where it came in over his number  

 

there is nothing to “fix” here except your biased impression 🤷‍♂️ 

Edited June 7 by Legion Again

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

2.5M for Garfield

Garfield previews actuals are $2.45M including early shows.

 

Furiosa and Apes I just rounded up and did put ~ in front of them.

 

Civil War and Challengers did come a bit lower than I would have liked them to be.

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

That's also a big problem. Like I didn't bring it up, but he said IF was going to have "1.8M+ previews". That implies 1.8M is the minimum it can do. When it goes to 1.75M...yeah, I got a problem with that. Because you just said it did lower than even what is posted as the "low end". I'm sure that's not Charlie's intentions, but intentions don't equal actions.

 

Ummm, $1.75M is just 2.5% lower than $1.8M.  If you could get within 2.5% of an estimate, you should be getting paid - Deadline rarely gets that close, even with weekend estimates on Sunday.

 

Now, I know BO has sucked...but this is not the hill to die on.  Charlie has been a great resource...and as mentioned, preview announcements are the numbers that can never be proven.  Sometimes, studios give out higher numbers to hype the weekend, sometimes lower if they look at weekend presales and don't want to be "that movie" with the horrific multiplier, sometimes they add earlier sneak peak shows, sometimes they don't...

 

So, if he gets within 10-20%, that's a win.  If he gets within 2.5% of the eventual studio announcement, he's Nostradamus...

 

Now, here I thought we'd complain that $6-7M previews is the new $17M previews from, was it just last year?  That was ages ago in box office, it seems...

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, Legion Again said:

No, it’s absolutely not a consistent pattern. You just decided to list one half without paying attention to all the ones recently where it came in over his number  

 

there is nothing to “fix” here except your biased impression 🤷‍♂️ 

I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.