Weekend Numbers [Aug 02 - Aug 04, 2024] | Actuals | 96.81M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 22.80M TWISTERS | 15.45M TRAP

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Honestly, even though that movie made a lot of money and is still impressive looking at what it did considering it was a Doctor Strange sequel, it's kind of embarassing now comparing it to Deadpool and Wolverine's numbers right now. 

 

The fact that Multiverse of Madness fell 67% in its second weekend despite releasing in May (not as frontloaded a month as July) and had literally no competition in its second frame shows you just how mixed at best the word-of-mouth was for that film. 

 

It may have been an event the first weekend, but it wasn't the case after that. In Deadpool and Wolverine's case, it's gonna remain an event until it's box office run is over. That's why we are even discussing the possibility of it matching or exceeding what Inside Out 2 will do domestically to become the biggest film of the year. 

Yes but it's not a normal sequel. It's the sequel to a non-event movie turned into an event movie. Kind of like DP2 --> DPW or FFH --> NWH. 

 

Domestically it would've done more than 2.5x DS1 if it got an A instead of a B+

Edited August 3 by HummingLemon496

[Killimano3]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

My God, imagine what MoM would have done with positive WOM and if it delivered on those cameos. $1.5B+?

 

Somewhere out there in the multiverse is a universe where MoM was the S-tier horror cameofest the fans wanted and it did avengers numbers and set off a string of hype marvel successes and Benedict Cumberbatch became a cultural icon the likes of which the world has never seen and Kevin Feige was so inspired that he just cancelled Antman Quantumania entirely

[Cheddar Please]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This looks likely. 29 is possible.

29M would make the chances of a 100M weekend very likely 

[AniNate]

What this summer has basically done is stopped the bleeding, but 2024 is still over a billion behind last year and also still trails 2022.  Does look like we can make some good ground up in the fall though.

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes but it's not a normal sequel. It's the sequel to a non-event movie turned into an event movie. Kind of like DP2 --> DPW or FFH --> NWH. 

 

Yeah, but I think Multiverse of Madness is and will now remain a perfect example of what happens when your comic-book movie doesn't have strong word-of-mouth. Regardless of what it is or what it's a sequel to, the second weekend drop would've been much less if audiences had enjoyed it and wasn't divisive. 

[HummingLemon496]

Two Disney movies in a row with a nail-biting chance at 100M second weekend!

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Ryan C said:

 

Yeah, but I think Multiverse of Madness is and will now remain a perfect example of what happens when your comic-book movie doesn't have strong word-of-mouth. Regardless of what it is or what it's a sequel to, the second weekend drop would've been much less if audiences had enjoyed it and wasn't divisive. 

if it was good (A) it would've opened to 220 and dropped to 95 or something

[Ryan C]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

What this summer has basically done is stopped the bleeding, but 2024 is still over a billion behind last year and also still trails 2022.  Does look like we can make some good ground up in the fall though.

 

I feel like a lot of people (including the pessimistic Indiewire) need to come to the realization that unless a literal miracle happens (Glicked becomes a thing?) that we probably won't reach 2023's $9B domestic gross. It may not be as impossible as it was in January, but that's really setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

I still think the Fall slate (outside of the first three weekends in November) are very solid and could result in some strong hits, but it would take another hot streak like the one we're having right now to even compete with 2023's $9B number. 

 

We should definitely top 2022 though. 

Edited August 3 by Ryan C

[TRISTAN]

10 hours ago, grey ghost said:

What's everyone's top 3 most anticipated for next year?

 

Cap 4
Thunderbolts
Fantastic Four 
Superman
Avatar 3
Minecraft
Naked Gun
Snow White
Mission Impossible 8
Karate Kid
Jurassic Park 4
Tron Ares
Mortal Kombat 2
Wicked 2
Zootopia 2

 

 

Avatar 3 

Avatar 3 

Avatar 3

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I feel like a lot of people (including the pessimistic Indiewire) need to come to the realization that unless a literal miracle happens (Glicked becomes a thing?) that we probably won't reach 2023's $9B domestic gross. It may not be as impossible as it was in January, but that's really setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

I still think the Fall slate (outside of the first three weekends in November) are very solid and could result in some strong hits, but it would take another hot streak like the one we're having right now to even compete with 2023's $9B number. 

 

We should definitely top 2022 though. 

 

I'm not gonna be disappointed if it misses, assuming it still ends on the strong note it's expected to. But it does go to show that the movies that broke out this summer were pretty much a necessity to break out. March is still the last month that actually topped last year's calendar take.

 

There has been a lot said still about a lack of profitable small budget counterprogramming, and I think that is a big issue we're still dealing with. Need a lot more than the superheroes and animated franchises to break out to really be back.

[Cooper Legion]

27 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Honestly, even though that movie made a lot of money and is still impressive looking at what it did considering it was a Doctor Strange sequel, it's kind of embarassing now comparing it to Deadpool and Wolverine's numbers right now. 

 

The fact that Multiverse of Madness fell 67% in its second weekend despite releasing in May (not as frontloaded a month as July) and had literally no competition in its second frame shows you just how mixed at best the word-of-mouth was for that film. 

 

It may have been an event the first weekend, but it wasn't the case after that. In Deadpool and Wolverine's case, it's gonna remain an event until it's box office run is over. That's why we are even discussing the possibility of it matching or exceeding what Inside Out 2 will do domestically to become the biggest film of the year. 

 

 

Even DS2’s OW was pretty disappointing tbh

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Cooper Legion said:

Even DS2’s OW was pretty disappointing tbh

Congratulations, every word of what you just said. . .was correct 

 

^ The movie I (mostly) just quoted would have been kicked out of the top 5 OWs if DS2 was well received

 

Also damn look at that drop:

 

 

[filmlover]

It's been a pretty good summer overall IMO. Had some obvious weak spots (the riskier bets - see: The Fall Guy, Furiosa - never caught fire, attempts at adult counterprogramming were greeted with indifference, little movies kept that status), but overall, I'd say the season has overperformed compared to what was expected heading in.

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

I'm not gonna be disappointed if it misses, assuming it still ends on the strong note it's expected to. But it does go to show that the movies that broke out this summer were pretty much a necessity to break out. March is still the last month that actually topped last year's calendar take.

 

There has been a lot said still about a lack of profitable small budget counterprogramming, and I think that is a big issue we're still dealing with. Need a lot more than the superheroes and animated franchises to break out to really be back.

 

I absolutely agree with all of this, but I do think that next year (with hopefully no strike-related impact) that we can start making heads or tails on the state of the box office and what kinds of movies are breaking out. We definitely need more than just superhero movies, four-quadrant animated sequels, and the occasional strong franchise film to break out, but considering how messed up the schedule was for this year because of the strikes, I really do take anything (even the most blatant franchise cash-in) as a win for theaters. 

 

Also, when I was saying to not be disappointed, I wasn't explicitly talking about you. I'm sure everybody in this thread knows that the box office needs more than franchises to survive and that 2024 will not be in the levels of 2023 (as sad as that sounds). I was mainly talking to the people (like Indiewire or the people who thought The Fall Guy and Furiosa bombing was the death of cinema) who are ready to throw out their doom and gloom posts regarding the fact that 2024 is still behind 2023's pace while completely forgetting about the reasons why January, February, April, and May were so weak in the first place. 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I just did that tweet. How is it shared 3 times already 👀

Because you're at this point bigger than Deadline & Box Office Mojo. 

 

Except for Indians, they are too up in their fan wars to see the greatness that is staring them in the eyes. 

[Ryan C]

5 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Even DS2’s OW was pretty disappointing tbh

 

When compared to the $200M+ that it could've done, it was pretty disappointing. Still, $187M is nothing to scoff at in terms of opening weekends. 

[AniNate]

If Ends and Alien do end up doing as the tracking is advertising, that might a good sign we're back

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Even DS2’s OW was pretty disappointing tbh

Entire DS2 was a disappointment.

 

Can't remember anything attached to it that was not.

[Cmasterclay]

31 minutes ago, AniNate said:

What this summer has basically done is stopped the bleeding, but 2024 is still over a billion behind last year and also still trails 2022.  Does look like we can make some good ground up in the fall though.

It'll top 2022 I think, but 2023 would require virtually everything to wildly overperform in at least the way Twisters did, with a couple of DP2 and IO2 sized breakouts. Maybe! But really doubtful to thread that needle.

 

Way I see it, we are headed towards 24 100m movies (23 obvious ones and one surprise), which is close to last year (with Garfield, Fall Guy, and Marley just missing it). Problem is, we are probably going to finish 10 or so 50m movies behind last year, and about the same number of 25m+ movies less too. The bottom fell out in that part of the bracket, and it is an open question whether it is just a strike issue and more content will fix it, or if the box office is going to be this top heavy moving forward.

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's been a pretty good summer overall IMO. Had some obvious weak spots (the riskier bets - see: The Fall Guy, Furiosa - never caught fire, attempts at adult counterprogramming were greeted with indifference, little movies kept that status), but overall, I'd say the season has overperformed compared to what was expected heading in.

 

It definitely overperformed, but I'll admit that even as escatic as I am about Deadpool and Wolverine's numbers right now and the rest of the summer films that overperformed, the adult counterprogramming that bombed this summer really is a shame. 

 

The Bikeriders, Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1, Kinds of Kindness, Fly Me to the Moon, and even The Fall Guy (though people slowly showed up for that one) had potential to be solid hits, but people made it pretty damn clear that they did not want to see any of those movies in a theater. Though I still love the irony that people panicked when the franchise prequel (Furiosa) flopped and not any of those films that weren't IP-driven and were attempts to play alongside the franchise titles.