Weekday Numbers [Aug 26 - Aug 29, 2024] | Tuesday | 2.22M ALIEN: ROMULUS | 2.15M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 1.86M IT ENDS WITH US

[Ryan C]

Deadpool and Wolverine will most likely be past $600M by Monday, but I don't see a scenario where (despite gaining some PLFs back) it holds as well as Guardians of the Galaxy did in its Labor Day weekend. 

 

Maybe I'm wrong and we'll see some kind of crazy hold, but I think a 25% drop for the three-day weekend should be reasonable. 

 

Either way, I'm hoping this will still be enough to get past both The Avengers and Barbie domestically. 

[keysersoze123]

27 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)

ok. I am skeptical its going to increase 146% tomorrow. 10 years back is eons and this is R rated as well. Look at Friday increases last year as better comps than Guardians 10 years ago. 

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

It's good to know they are continuing the tradition. ELEMENTAL returned to 1920 theaters last year for a total of 2155. INSIDE OUT II was still in 1560 locations last weekend, though. I wonder how many they'll add this weekend.

 

3 hours ago, wattage said:

I'm wondering if it can crack 3k but we'll see! Right now I think it'll probably be around 2800 or so. 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257560830-Theater-counts-Deadpool-and-Wolverine-claw-their-way-back-to-widest-release

 

Inside Out 2 is at 2,660 theaters this weekend.

[AniNate]

Didi and Sing Sing both losing theaters. Sigh...

 

The indie stuff not getting any respect this year. Really sucks.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257560830-Theater-counts-Deadpool-and-Wolverine-claw-their-way-back-to-widest-release

 

Inside Out 2 is at 2,660 theaters this weekend.

I doubt it will increase enough to overtake Jurassic World by Monday. But by next weekend I expect it to overtake. It will require under 5m starting this weekend. I am hoping for 3m+. May be even 3.5m. 

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Didi and Sing Sing both losing theaters. Sigh...

 

The indie stuff not getting any respect this year. Really sucks.

 

I guess A24 and Focus' strategy on releasing these films were eventually destined to not pan out soon enough.

 

Also, can we just say that this release strategy of slowly rolling out the movie in a few select markets week by week is an outdated and potentially nonprofitable business model? I wanted to give it the benefit of the doubt on these two movies because of the acclaim they received, but maybe it's better to just release them in as wide of a release of possible. 

 

That may sound bad of me, but I genuinely don't see how this can benefit smaller films when 90% of the time, they barely make any money in theaters. 

[Eric the Marxist]

It's not all bad indie/specialty-wise. Thelma and Late Night with the Devil are the biggest hits for their respective studios in ages. Longlegs has become the biggest hit for Neon period. Big enough where it has crossed over to the mainstream, and that's not even including Immaculate making a big chunk of cash. And if you want to be that guy, you can argue Civil War was set up and financed like an indie production, even if it costs a pretty penny more than all the other movies listed.

 

I'm still very much in the "nostalgic toy commercials are the only things making money" mindset, but there have been minor improvements, and it could have been much, much, much worse. Like two years ago, I was scared Focus/Searchlight were going to be streaming content farms for all eternity.

[cannastop]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I doubt it will increase enough to overtake Jurassic World by Monday. But by next weekend I expect it to overtake. It will require under 5m starting this weekend. I am hoping for 3m+. May be even 3.5m. 

it will be on streaming pretty soon.

[wattage]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257560830-Theater-counts-Deadpool-and-Wolverine-claw-their-way-back-to-widest-release

 

Inside Out 2 is at 2,660 theaters this weekend.

Less than I assumed but still a good amount. It's harder for me to extrapolate based on other Pixar movies that got that Labor Day expansion just because Inside Out 2 was originally in more theaters and getting more daily money. We'll have a much better idea when we see the Thursday to Friday jump.

 

For now I'm just gonna throw out 4 to 5 mill for the 4-day. Most likely frustratingly just under Jurassic so it won't get its splashy headlines on Monday and we have to wait some more. But I'll keep hope alive, maybe it can hit close to a 6 and do it on the Monday! 

[wattage]

13 minutes ago, cannastop said:

it will be on streaming pretty soon.

Will it? Based on the ever extending window Disney's been doing over the last year I don't see it on Disney+ for a while now. I know they vaguely said a 100 day window but that wouldn't line up with what they've been doing with their other movies from later last year. 

Edited August 30 by wattage
Typos

[Ryan C]

11 minutes ago, Eric Ripley said:

It's not all bad indie/specialty-wise. Thelma and Late Night with the Devil are the biggest hits for their respective studios in ages. Longlegs has become the biggest hit for Neon period. Big enough where it has crossed over to the mainstream, and that's not even including Immaculate making a big chunk of cash. And if you want to be that guy, you can argue Civil War was set up and financed like an indie production, even if it costs a pretty penny more than all the other movies listed.

 

I'm still very much in the "nostalgic toy commercials are the only things making money" mindset, but there have been minor improvements, and it could have been much, much, much worse. Like two years ago, I was scared Focus/Searchlight were going to be streaming content farms for all eternity.

 

I think the long-term problem is always gonna be that there is not enough of these types of indie/speciality films that break out. We've definitely gotten a lot more this year, but it's still not enough to really make that much of a difference to the overall box office. 

 

Civil War gave April a much-needed hit and Longlegs contributed to the streak the summer box office has been on (while also proving that original horror is not dead), but that's really about it in terms of impact. 

 

I'm not trying to say that every indie/speciality film has to open like Longlegs, but we really need more of these films in the marketplace. Especially to fill in the gaps if the blockbusters and franchise films are not doing well. 

[wattage]

30 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I guess A24 and Focus' strategy on releasing these films were eventually destined to not pan out soon enough.

 

Also, can we just say that this release strategy of slowly rolling out the movie in a few select markets week by week is an outdated and potentially nonprofitable business model? I wanted to give it the benefit of the doubt on these two movies because of the acclaim they received, but maybe it's better to just release them in as wide of a release of possible. 

 

That may sound bad of me, but I genuinely don't see how this can benefit smaller films when 90% of the time, they barely make any money in theaters. 

I see your point but I think it's also what they can negotiate with theaters which is part of the reason they do the slow rollout. If it can't sustain a 1000 theater release then the studio doesn't want to take on more costs for a wider release. Generally the smaller releases are in the biggest marketplaces first. 

 

And it still works sometimes, Poor Things did very well with this model last year. But I think it's better suited for closer to awards season and it a harder sell during peak seasons just because the conversation can't stay around it long enough to keep it going. Poor Things had the benefit of a lot of awards contender buzz and conversation around the film itself. 

Edited August 30 by wattage

[Ryan C]

9 minutes ago, wattage said:

I see your point but I think it's also what they can negotiate with theaters which is part of the reason they do the slow rollout. If it can't sustain a 1000 theater release then the studio doesn't want to take on more costs for a wider release. Generally the smaller releases are in the biggest marketplaces first. 

 

And it still works sometimes, Poor Things did very well with this model last year. But I think it's better suited for closer to awards season and it a harder sell during peak seasons just because the conversation can't stay around it long enough to keep it going. Poor Things had the benefit of a lot of awards buzz and conversation around the film itself. 

 

In the case of Poor Things, that film had a lot more advantages than something like Didi or Sing Sing. It had Yorgos Lanthimos' name attached to it (he's a very popular director amongst the arthouse crowd), very popular stars (I would argue Emma Stone is a draw), and (like you said) was released during awards season and had a ton of buzz surrounding it to help get word out about the film. 

 

Also, even though Searchlight didn't expand to film to more than 4,000 theaters, they eventually put it in 2,300 theaters, which is always good for getting the film into plenty of markets that previously didn't have it. As much as I wish, I don't think either Sing Sing or Didi will release in that many theaters. 

 

I understand that every film is different and that some studios don't want to spend the extra money for a wider release, but if they want these films to be successful, putting them in a lot more theaters would be a serious help for them. Especially for films like Didi and Sing Sing that don't have a popular arthouse director or stars like Emma Stone that could maybe get people interested. 

 

I'm not against limited releases, but playing it in a select few theaters for weeks and weeks and never expanding it beyond the maximum number of theaters (at least 2,000) is not gonna solve their problems. 

Edited August 30 by Ryan C

[wattage]

If Inside Out is coming to streaming soon I'd imagine it would be near the end of the month when is run was basically gonna be done anyway, the movie is gonna have its run cut by Transformers and the Wild Robot more than anything so might as well wait for one or both of those to come out.

 

Though i still assumed around October-November based on the release dates for Indiana Jones, Wish, and the Marvels but theyre not super consistent with that and I wouldn't be shocked if it dropped on the Wednesday before Transformers or Wild Robot or something. 

[Eric the Marxist]

Will say I do think @Ryan C is onto something that maybe we need to retire the platform/limited theater rollout. Or at least deemphasize them apart from the occasional Licorice Pizza or Asteroid City. All the indie movies I listed were in at least 1,000 theaters on their opening weekend, which made it a lot easier for their target audiences to seek them out, and make it easier and faster for WOM to spread.

 

Plus these types of NY/LA releases really only worked when you could get some big PTAs you could make headlines over. And that was only possible thanks to specialty/boutique theaters like Arclight/Cinerama Dome. In 2018, something like The Fabelmans would have gotten the biggest auditorium, maybe even two auditoriums, in places like the Dome and other theaters specifically designed for arthouse fans/cinephiles. But in 2022, it had to play in some AMC/Regal locations, where Wakanda Forever had all the big auditoriums, and it had to also share space with stuff like Black Adam or Ticket to Paradise or The Menu. That's a problem. And nowadays, those giant 60K+ PTAs are more and more elusive post-COVID, unless you're an auteur darling like PTA or Yorgos or Wes Anderson. And even then, if Spielberg can only barely get to 40K, then what does that mean for newcomers who don't have such luxuries or popularity?

 

I doubt Sing Sing or Didi would have been Big Sick-style winners, but maybe just having them open in 1,800 theaters would have helped them get at least close enough to the 10M threshold.

[cannastop]

21 minutes ago, wattage said:

Will it? Based on the ever extending window Disney's been doing over the last year I don't see it on Disney+ for a while now. I know they vaguely said a 100 day window but that wouldn't line up with what they've been doing with their other movies from later last year. 

Hmm for some reason I thought it would be September 10th, earlier than 100 days, but I guess a solid date hasn't been set yet. Either way, should be around September 22nd when it's on Disney Plus.

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I have DPW at 608 by EOD Monday. Following GOTG 1 from there gets us ~660M

 

Does this sound right? @Cooper Legion

I have it at 606.x, but it's true that if it gets to 608 then following gotg would be 660 (wouldn't follow gotg though).  

 

Fwiw @keysersoze123 DPW's fri/th increases have been higher than gotg1's for last weekend, and the weekend before that (and the weekend before that). That's due to the 1 week offset in the runs in part -- I do expect the Fri jump to be weaker this weekend, but probably not by much

[DAJK]

@Eric Ripley has been cooking in this thread today.

[wattage]

19 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

In the case of Poor Things, that film had a lot more advantages than something like Didi or Sing Sing. It had Yorgos Lanthimos' name attached to it (he's a very popular director amongst the arthouse crowd), very popular stars (I would argue Emma Stone is a draw), and (like you said) was released during awards season and had a ton of buzz surrounding it to help get word out about the film. 

 

Also, even though Searchlight didn't expand to film to more than 4,000 theaters, they eventually put it in 2,300 theaters, which is always good for getting the film into plenty of markets that previously didn't have it. As much as I wish, I don't think either Sing Sing or Didi will release in that many theaters.

See that's the thing I don't think it would've gotten that 2k theaters if the PTA wasn't as big as it was when it was when the theater count was sub 1000. And the stars and the much more known director definitely had a part in that, but regardless of why it and stronger grosses to justify an expansion. They didn't think they were taking any risk there and the theaters themselves would've been on board for that. Putting a movie in more theaters doesn't really mean it'll have more success it could just mean a ton of empty theaters, we've had two recent wide releases that prove that one lol.

 

I really just think summer is a tough season to try and do the model. So I do agree with you in a way, if they wanted to do summer they needed a faster expansion. On its third expansion it should've been in more theaters than just 450 it should've been much closer to 1k or above that. It relies even more on buzz, and there's so many releases coming out at any given time, movies get cut much quicker. The winter month pace just isn't suitable unless they have stars behind it, and even then that's not guaranteed. But I still don't think the problem is the model, I think it just needs to be selectively applied. See what you're working with and then decide. 

 

I'm glad I got to see Didi though I did really enjoy it. 

Edited August 30 by wattage

[Eric the Marxist]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

@Eric Ripley has been cooking in this thread today.

I always cook. You should try my spaghetti carbonara. It's a banger!