Labor Day Weekend Thread | Reagan 525K previews, AfrAId 400K

[JonathanMB]

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Titanic

4. Barbie

5. Avatar

6. Black Panther

7. Top Gun: Maverick

8. Incredibles 2

9. Avengers: Endgame

10. The Avengers

11. Inside Out 2

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

13. Spider-Man: No Way Home

14. Avengers: Infinity War

15. Deadpool & Wolverine

16. Jurassic World

 

I like all of these to some extent, although I don't think I have any desire to ever rewatch the bottom two movies. The top 4-6 are the only movies I truly love. 

[Eric the Marxist]

16 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$300-399M range would be pretty disappointing, tbh

Cool.

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, Eric Ripley said:

Cool.

I'm expecting $600M+ 

 

Though imo disappointment range would be sub-$400M

Edited September 1 by HummingLemon496

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Haven’t seen Inside Out 2 or Deadpool & Wolverine yet (I will when I buy them on DVD 📀), but I really, really like all the other $600M+ DOM grossing movies.

[ZeroHour]

25 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

No, Disney+ was the right home for both. Prey was coming off of the despised Shane Black Predator movie that flopped back in its day, and would, at least in my opinion, have similarly flopped had it been released in theaters. Last year showed plenty of examples as to how poisonous a bad movie can be to a franchise.

 

And Hocus Pocus 2 would've suffered a similar problem to Twisters. It could have performed decently enough in America, but it most likely would've tanked overseas. No one outside the States has even heard of the original Hocus Pocus. In a marketplace where overseas revenue is pivotal, I doubt Disney would be happy with Hocus Pocus 2 making mere pennies there.

 

Some movies fit in small screens, and some belong on the big screen. That's just how it is.

You’re absolutely right, Twisters should have gone straight to streaming lol. At a $40 million budget, who cares if Hocus Pocus 2 didn’t put up big overseas numbers. It wouldn’t have needed to!
 

Also Prey would have landed in a barren August with glowing reviews and done a ton to revive the theatrical prospects of the Predator brand even if it wasn’t an absolute smash at the box office. It could have definitely hit the $100 million domestic that Alien: Romulus will (though probably not hit the same highs overseas). Unless you think Alien: Romulus should’ve also skipped theaters. 

[baumer]

36 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$300-399M range would be pretty disappointing, tbh

 

According to who? That would be $100 million increase from the last film.

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, baumer said:

According to who? That would be $100 million increase from the last film.

Me 

[filmlover]

Is anyone else getting "nonevent" vibes from Venom 3? I dunno, the previous one actually had a hook bringing on a big star ala Woody Harrelson, genuine enthusiasm for this seems low though being the first PG-13 tentpole in a while and a release right before Halloween might prevent too much bleeding.

[AniNate]

Venom's quorum is pacing more or less the same as Twisters, so I'm not prepared to call it a fizzle yet. Personally never really got the appeal in the first place so not really for me to assume interest is sagging based on vibes. And yes the schedule does work in its favor.

 

 

Edited September 1 by AniNate

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Venom's quorum is pacing more or less the same as Twisters, so I'm not prepared to call it a fizzle yet. Personally never really got the appeal in the first place so not really for me to assume interest is sagging based on vibes. And yes the schedule does work in its favor.

 

 

It's also one of the few aspiring tentpoles this year to have a female director behind it (then again, she was a screenwriter on the previous movies and the prerequisite for this gig was probably "must be willing to put up with Tom Hardy for a few months") so it would be nice if 2024 had one of those succeed.

[filmnerdjamie]

Moana 2 feels destined to win this fall (domestic and worldwide) at this point.

 

The Moana live-action redo is the one that will crash and burn...

[James]

 

6 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Moana 2 feels destined to win this fall (domestic and worldwide) at this point.

 

The Moana live-action redo is the one that will crash and burn...

Joker will win the fall. Idk about domestic, but WW is a lock. OS will be gigantic. The first one did almost 750m OS without China and its just been confirmed that Joker 2 is getting a China release as well.

[AniNate]

Need some smaller movies to surprise as well but the September-November slate of tentpoles very much seems like it has the potential to challenge 2002 in admissions. Top six movies in that year did about $1.66 billion adjusted for inflation, and that seems well within reach for the combination of BJ, Joker, Venom, Gladiator, Wicked and Moana

[filmnerdjamie]

For the longest time, I had Joker 2 pegged to underperform as severely as Joker overperformed.

 

Obviously that's wrong and Joker 2 will make major bank. But "win the fall" major?

 

I just don't see it.

[HummingLemon496]

8 minutes ago, James said:

 

Joker will win the fall. Idk about domestic, but WW is a lock. OS will be gigantic. The first one did almost 750m OS without China and its just been confirmed that Joker 2 is getting a China release as well.

Where?

[AnthonyJPHer]

I’m pretty sure Moana will likely win WW regardless of Jokers overseas performance. It’s domestic gross alone will get it over Joker and it’s also PG so more likely to have longer legs. Although Joker did have great legs domestically in 2019

 

also am I the only one who thinks Mufasa will easily win December?

[filmlover]

They obviously won't challenge the bigger tentpoles but there's actually a number of specialty titles (like Saturday Night, We Live in Time, Anora, A Real Pain, Heretic) that could catch on and find an audience after this summer was low on movies that moved past the arthouse theaters.

[AniNate]

I think everyone's sleeping on the September animated movies. Not ideal that they're opening within a week of each other but then they have a clear runway for nearly two months after that. Both seem to have really good advance buzz and could keep bored families with time to kill coming back for awhile.

 

 

Edited September 1 by AniNate

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Out of all the fall blockbusters, I also think Moana 2 will likely win DOM & WW. The question is how high and how much exactly can it do in order to win over other fall movies like Joker 2 for example? 🤷🏻‍♀️👩🏻‍💼

 

Probably a repeat of what happened this summer with Inside Out 2 winning over Deadpool & Wolverine. The animated sequel over the comic book movie sequel.

Edited September 1 by MrFanaticGuy34

[AniNate]

TFOne I do imagine probably won't exceed 150m even under ideal circumstances, given Mutant Mayhem's rather unimpressive box office. But Wild Robot I definitely think can grab some of that single Disney adult audience if festival buzz is as enthusiastic as Dreamworks is hoping it is.