Weekend Thread | October 18-20 | 23M SMILE | 9.3M TERRIFIER

[Cooper Legion]

I am expecting Wicked to have a "weak" finish (as in weak relative to the start, reflecting an audience with high upfront demand, but still good nums overall). On the other hand gotta put at least some % now on heading more in a barbie/io2 direction (reaching into mid 100s and 3.5x+) , which was not my mindspace a month ago.  

 

For the other two... wait and see mode for now

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

just under $200M pre-pandemic

how is the 5-year average below $200M when there is no year prior below $200M, unless I am reading something wrong?

Also

 

2001-2004 - $285M (1.75% of annual adj gross of $16.3B)
2006-2010 - $256M (1.72% of $14.9B)
2015-2018 - $234M (1.70% of $13.9B)
 

Edited Monday at 02:19 PM by charlie Jatinder

[M37]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

how is the 5-year average below $200M when there is no year prior below $200M, unless I am reading something wrong?

Using the 3-day (FSS) weekend instead of 5-day, because daily numbers/5-day data is incomplete prior to like ~2007. Only 2018 is >$200M from 2014 and on 

 

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2001-2004 - $285M (1.75% of annual adj gross of $16.3B)
2006-2010 - $256M (1.72% of $14.9B)
2015-2018 - $234M (1.70% of $13.9B)

Interesting. Now I’m curious how the full 10-day numbers would stack up over time (but I’m about to head out of town, so someone else will have delve into that data). 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Using the 3-day (FSS) weekend instead of 5-day, because daily numbers/5-day data is incomplete prior to like ~2007. Only 2018 is >$200M from 2014 and on 

Yeah IDK how you are getting that because initially I just looked your bar graph and none of the year is below $200M there.

After that I looked up Thanksgiving FSS myself and it confirmed.

	Annual Gross	Adj Gross	Thanksgiving FSS Gross	Adj Gross
2019	11,224,616,986	13,209,753,611	180,855,568	212,840,941
2018	11,946,883,074	14,136,922,897	216,475,781	256,159,047
2017	10,993,923,429	13,212,314,884	188,835,224	226,939,099
2016	11,267,587,337	14,042,145,267	184,385,596	229,789,217
2015	11,155,239,646	14,264,940,806	182,526,007	233,408,109

[M37]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah IDK how you are getting that because initially I just looked your bar graph and none of the year is below $200M there.

After that I looked up Thanksgiving FSS myself and it confirmed.

	Annual Gross	Adj Gross	Thanksgiving FSS Gross	Adj Gross
2019	11,224,616,986	13,209,753,611	180,855,568	212,840,941
2018	11,946,883,074	14,136,922,897	216,475,781	256,159,047
2017	10,993,923,429	13,212,314,884	188,835,224	226,939,099
2016	11,267,587,337	14,042,145,267	184,385,596	229,789,217
2015	11,155,239,646	14,264,940,806	182,526,007	233,408,109

Ah, good catch, did have an error in my formula (from what I was skipping the COVID year from the average)

 

Updated chart here (will update in other two posts as well). It does change the values for the average, but not the overall story of decline

 

[Grand Cine]

Thanksgiving 5 days Weekend % of the total year

 

2009: 2,4%

2010 : 2,3%

2011 : 2%

2012 : 2,6%

2013 : 2,5%

2014 : 2,1%

2015 : 2,1%

2016 : 2,1%

2017 : 2,3%

2018 : 2,5%

2019 : 2,1%

2021 : 3,1%

2022 : 1,7%

2023 : 1,8%

 

This year has a very good chance to have the biggest %

[Mojoguy]

 

[AniNate]

Didn't quite make it to 70%

 

 

[AniNate]

Estimate nailed it

 

 

[Elessar]

Joker performance is amazing, in a negative way.

[AniNate]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mojoguy]

Smile vs Terrifier 2 in 2022

 

Smile 2 vs Terrifier 3 in Oct 2024

 

Smile 3 vs Terrifier 4 in Oct 2027?

 

I love how these 2 franchises keep being released around the same time and both get good critic reviews and fan love. As a fan of both, I say let the scheduling continue.

Edited Monday at 07:58 PM by Mojoguy

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Smile vs Terrifier 2 in 2022

 

Smile 2 vs Terrifier 3 in Oct 2024

 

Smile 3 vs Terrifier 4 in Oct 2027?

 

I love how these 2 franchises keep being released around the same time and both get good critic reviews and fan love. As a fan of both, I say let the scheduling continue.

And with the trajectory of both franchises, Terrifier 4 will probably open higher than Smile 3