May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[redfirebird2008]

Could it be Paramount and Disney(or whoever is actually in charge) being sneaky with the numbers? Holding some back until tomorrow maybe?

No, didn't Nikki say she was hearing these numbers from rival studios? Usually they go on the high end. For instance, this morning rival studios said $20m and the actual studio estimate ended up being $18.7m. I also remember rival studios were telling Nikki that TDK had a chance to break the record, while WB was steadfastly claiming it would make in the neighborhood of $100m. But when Friday night rolled around, she was saying $50m. Then $55m. Then Mason came on and said it was over $60m. Then Nikki came on with another update saying $68m. Actual ended up $67m. Potter's $91m was lowballed too for most of the day if I remember right.

[riczhang]

That may be a factor why your numbers come off so skewed. Say Avengers has 18 shows and THG had 12 shows. So THG got better occupancy percentage.But nation-wide Avengers didn't get 1.5x shows of THG. It would be quite close, maybe a little bit more.It is a case of demand/supply here.

But the demand has to be there at least for that theatre if it got 1.5x the supply compared to THG. Economically speaking of course.

[ecstasy]

Do you mean as in being conservative? Or fudging?The first, yes possibly. I can't see any reason they'd want to hold back the numbers though. They always want to get big numbers out as early as possible, helps with the marketing

Universal lowballed the hell out of fast five last year. First estimate was 55m and it kept going up through the night.I think it ended up opening at 88m

[Dementeleus]

Could it be Paramount and Disney(or whoever is actually in charge) being sneaky with the numbers? Holding some back until tomorrow maybe?

The studios kinda police themselves. Rival studios release their own estimates to people like Nikki and Gitesh, so the discrepancy would be clear.

[spizzer]

Universal lowballed the hell out of fast five last year. First estimate was 55m and it kept going up through the night.I think it ended up opening at 88m

I mean hold back as in shift dollars from Friday into Saturday

[Fake]

So we can safely conclude that it probably missed the #1 OW all-time but got #2 OW all-time.

[riczhang]

So we can safely conclude that it probably missed the #1 OW all-time but got #2 OW all-time.

Probably Got, I can see it missing 158M if it's frontloaded enough.

[redfirebird2008]

So we can safely conclude that it probably missed the #1 OW all-time but got #2 OW all-time.

No we can't. Way too early. Still 9:42 on the West Coast. Also there is no way of knowing how WOM will affect it throughout the weekend. If it's like TDK, you're going to see it hold way better than expected.

[druv10]

So we can safely conclude that it probably missed the #1 OW all-time but got #2 OW all-time.

We don't even have definte number for Friday so no.

[Lordmandeep]

"Never would have thought at the start of the year that THG would beat everything in 2011, even the 3D films domestic totals."In the end it actually beats TS3 and is the best since Avatar and not that far behind even TF2.

[riczhang]

No we can't. Way too early. Still 9:42 on the West Coast. Also there is no way of knowing how WOM will affect it throughout the weekend. If it's like TDK, you're going to see it hold way better than expected.

WOM is crazy, at least from what I'm hearing.

[Lordmandeep]

Can't be sure, all it takes is a solid hold one day like THG on Saturday to change weekend totals by 5-10 million.THG started at 125 million then went to 155 million by Sunday.

[Noctis]

I don't think THG will go the route of Harry Potter because wasn't CoS the least well receive book whereas Catching Fire is the best received? Plus when THG released, book sales weren't as high as Harry Potter so there's more potential to grow the fanbase that way.

PoA decreased $12m from Cos and it was very well received.

[Fake]

But the demand has to be there at least for that theatre if it got 1.5x the supply compared to THG. Economically speaking of course.

Doesn't exactly work like that....Suppose THG and TA have equal showings in a town with 2 theaters. First theater gives than 12 and 18 shows and the other gives them 18 and 12 resp. It is pretty clear that if total attendances are in the same neighborhood, theater 1 will record significantly more attendance for TA and theater 2 will record significantly more attendance for THG.Looking at just attendance for one theater is misleading. Occupancy % gives a more accurate idea.

[Fake]

We don't even have definte number for Friday so no.

That range covers over 90% probability IMO as of now.... so I will go with that.It will take something weird to pass DH2 or miss TDK now.

[riczhang]

Doesn't exactly work like that....Suppose THG and TA have equal showings in a town with 2 theaters. First theater gives than 12 and 18 shows and the other gives them 18 and 12 resp. It is pretty clear that if total attendances are in the same neighborhood, theater 1 will record significantly more attendance for TA and theater 2 will record significantly more attendance for THG.Looking at just attendance for one theater is misleading. Occupancy % gives a more accurate idea.

Economically a theatre wouldn't do that unless they believe that the demand is there, and looking at the figures there is. I'm saying that yes THG had the Higher Occupancy % but if you give THG 18 shows or whatever the figure is, it wouldn't do as well.

[Lordmandeep]

many theaters added additionally shows and added 12 am shows around me.some theaters had one or 2 sellouts only...

[druv10]

That range covers over 90% probability IMO as of now.... so I will go with that.It will take something weird to pass DH2 or miss TDK now.

All it needs is a good hold on Saturday and OW record is back in the picture.

[Fake]

Economically a theatre wouldn't do that unless they believe that the demand is there, and looking at the figures there is. I'm saying that yes THG had the Higher Occupancy % but if you give THG 18 shows or whatever the figure is, it wouldn't do as well.

If you increase the no. of shows, occupancy % will go down a bit, but attendance will go up (unless it is only 1 theater for 100 miles).

[riczhang]

All it needs is a good hold on Saturday and OW record is back in the picture.

Don't start dreaming too big again, sets everyone for disappointment, just remember THG when people thought it would go over 160 and ended up with 152.