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Shawn Robbins

May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

Posted
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If you increase the no. of shows, occupancy % will go down a bit, but attendance will go up (unless it is only 1 theater for 100 miles).

There is a saturation point, the theatres would've added additional shows for THG if the theatres thought that they could achieve further saturation. I'm sure that if the theatre had 18 shows for TA, that they could've easily added shows to get THG to 18 shows or more a day too if they thought they could get better attendance, to justify adding more shows. Edited by riczhang
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Lordmandeep Global Phenomenon

Lordmandeep

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"Don't start dreaming too big again, sets everyone for disappointment, just remember THG when people thought it would go over 160 and ended up with 152."Actually, THG ended up quite well based on its opening day.Perdictions of 160 million came after we knew about the epic Saturday.Saturday should be around 50-54 million for TA.See no reason why it should not hold better then THG.

Edited by Lordmandeep
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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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I think Saturday will be close to 60

That's just insane, why don't we wait until Friday is more concrete before we throw anymore wild Saturday projections out? 60M is like 20% higher than the previous record, and that's just kinda hard to believe.
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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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MAXIMUM amount? As in, every single ticket sold? Probably over 100M...

I think if Revenge of the Sith came out on a Friday in 2012 with 3D, it could definitely make over $100m. Amazing how times have changed in 7 years. $50m was a jawdropping number at the time.
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Chewy Global Phenomenon

Chewy

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That's just insane, why don't we wait until Friday is more concrete before we throw anymore wild Saturday projections out? 60M is like 20% higher than the previous record, and that's just kinda hard to believe.

The last time we had a massive massive OW in May was SM3 in 2007. With inflation and 3D its Saturday adjusts to close to 70M. Edited by Chewy
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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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The last time we had a massive massive OW in May was SM3 in 2007. With inflation and 3D its Saturday was close to 70M.

Exactly. $60m is very doable. Can't look at the percentage increase from the previous record just in terms of dollar amount, you have to look at what the admissions record is and then figure out what Avengers theoretically could make with similar admissions and 2012 prices (including a 3D boost).
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Lordmandeep Global Phenomenon

Lordmandeep

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ROTS 4-day is actually a few million behind TDK adjusted.No doubt in terms of an opening weekend ROTS would be in the same level as Spider Man 3 and TDK in opening weekend admissions.Saturday will be around 52 million+ This should stay flat from non midnights at least.All signs point to a big Saturday... I mean big...

Edited by Lordmandeep
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Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

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Uh, guys, her update now says $70m.

FRIDAY 10 PM… REFRESH FOR LATEST… Disney is looking at even stronger North American box office for Marvel’s The Avengers in Digital 3D, RealD and IMAX 3D than even rival studios thought. The gross number now is thought to be $70 million on opening day Friday (including $18.1M midnights) and $160+M through Sunday. “Freakin’ phenomenal,” one studio mogul phoned me tonight. ”It has a real shot at the weekend record,” another movie boss emailed me. Warner Bros’ Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (also a 3D movie)holds both the Friday opening record of $91M and the first weekend record of $169M. The AMC theater chain is selling so many Avengers tickets today that its entire credit card processing system is delayed.

Edited by rallax
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