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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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rhfqkddl45 Indie Sensation

rhfqkddl45

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Posted

Wednesday 5/28 Admissions [Last Wk-Today]

 

*4 chains

109....6444----6024 -6.5%
kinezo.5507----5649 +2.5% (*estimate)
movix..8376----7902 -5.7%
toho...27983--26580 -5%
 
total..48331--46155 -4.5%
                   (actual)
 
 
*Today Estimate - 175m yen ($1.72m)
 
*Current Total Estimate - 20.27b yen ($199.1m current exchange rate)
 
 
 
Note: wednesday admissions
 
*3 chains Wednesday admissions (109+toho+Kinezo)
wk-6....45441
wk-7....49149
wk-9....41055
wk-10...49035
LastWk..39995
Today...38253
 
* 4 chains Wednesday admissions 
wk-9...50248
wk-10..58200
Lastwk.48331
Today..46155
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SamComedian Straight-to-DVD

SamComedian

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Posted (edited)

Hans13

Wednesday 5/28 Admissions [Last Wk-Today]

*4 chains

109....6444----6024 -6.5%

kinezo.5507----5649 +2.5% (*estimate)

movix..8376----7902 -5.7%

toho...27983--26580 -5%

total..48331--46155 -4.5%

(actual)

*Today Estimate - 175m yen ($1.72m)

*Current Total Estimate - 20.27b yen ($199.1m current exchange rate)

Note: wednesday admissions

*3 chains Wednesday admissions (109+toho+Kinezo)

wk-6....45441

wk-7....49149

wk-9....41055

wk-10...49035

LastWk..39995

Today...38253

* 4 chains Wednesday admissions

wk-9...50248

wk-10..58200

Lastwk.48331

Today..46155

Good numbers at this point. Go Frozen, go Japan!

Edited by SamComedian
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mfantin65 Box Office Gold

mfantin65

Posted
Posted (edited)

Tracking the true weekend multiplier. The column that holds steadiest and closest to its mean becomes the likely target.
Consistantly ascending total is too low a multiple, descending is  too high. Summer midweeks will cause an increase.
 
 
Wk   WE    Tot       12x      18x      24x     30x
 
 9)  7.2   167.4     253.8    297.0    340.2   383.4
10)  7.9   181.3     276.1    322.5    370.9   418.3
11)  6.85  194.3     276.5    317.6    359.3   399.8
Lets go with a wed projection here and see how this looks.
 12)  6.6   206.9     286.1    325.7    365.3   404.9

 
12x steadily increases and is thereby too low. We need a couple more weeks to have a clear picture, but it is looking at 18x right now as week 12 proj snaps back above week 10.
 
These multiples are based on steady drops should that start being consistant and do not account for summer midweek bump or a drawn out run which I estimate at 30m that can be added to the projected total. SA averaged a 20 multiple at weekends 12 thru 18 with the extended run factored in.

Edited by T E Lawrence
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Quigley Box Office Gold

Quigley

Posted
Posted

Hans13

Wednesday 5/28 Admissions [Last Wk-Today]

*4 chains

109....6444----6024 -6.5%

kinezo.5507----5649 +2.5% (*estimate)

movix..8376----7902 -5.7%

toho...27983--26580 -5%

total..48331--46155 -4.5%

(actual)

*Today Estimate - 175m yen ($1.72m)

*Current Total Estimate - 20.27b yen ($199.1m current exchange rate)

 

So apparently, the release of Rio 2 on Wednesday had absolutely no effect on Frozen (I never believed it would). If anything, the small minority of people who went to the movies to watch Rio 2 saw that Frozen was still playing and they changed their minds.  :P

 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2357291/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ql_9

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mfantin65 Box Office Gold

mfantin65

Posted
Posted (edited)

1         7.531     9.731   9.731
2   11.300  8.550+13 19.800 29.535
3   13.400  8.569 +1 22.000 51.579
4   15.300  8.238 -5 23.500 75.100
5    7.800  8.286 +1 16.000 90.600 week is 15m w/o SB day mon.
6    5.900 8.046 -3 14.000  104.800 down 6% after reducing prev mon
7    5.900  7.558 -6 13.400  118.400 down 4%
8   14.100 11.100+48 24.900 144.400 
9   15.800  7.200-36 23.000  167.400 GW out performs SB two week total. 49m to 45m up 9%
10   6.000  7.900+10 13.900  181.300 up   4% from week 7 after GW "burn". We should call it "WOM fuel"
11   6.150  6.850-13 13.100  194.400 down 6% after a bump and was weakened by field day. 
12   5.600  6.600   *12.600  207.000 down 4% small boost from post field day mon. *Est

Essentially, its single digits across the board when looked at properly.
There isn't a 10, 15  or 20% decline in sight right now. 
$250m+ :locked2: on the day Maleficent opens with the weekly at or near 10m still.
You're right edrodger, I am low..... 
 
                                                        :locked: $350,000,000 :locked:
                                                                                  :locked:
 
                                   DOM in play 401

Edited by T E Lawrence
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mfantin65 Box Office Gold

mfantin65

Posted
Posted (edited)

Frozen Japan over DM2 DOM?

アナと雪の女王 Japan over Frozen DOMThe weekly has fallen an average of just 2% since week 5. Didnt you point out that since week 2 the weekend dropped just 2% ave? Edited by T E Lawrence
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mfantin65 Box Office Gold

mfantin65

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Posted (edited)

Okay people. Time for another Frozen Japan BO challenge. We had a pre and post GW contest, now we have sick weekly holds and a run you may never see again. These holds still make it difficult to pin down a final number at week 12 and that's what makes it fun and not a time to be conservative.
 
This is not a revision. The first two rounds stay intact, although I feel they're decided.... and I won them both ;)  
Take the week to contemplate it, due by 1200 Tokyo saturday, 11pm ny friday. This could be months before its decided, if you're all not too low. We have yet to have a regular(non holiday) week over week 10% drop. The current week is looking at 12m+. Will it be 8, 12, 16 or 20 times that? Aim high and stay in the game until New Year.

Round 1 April 25th                   Rnd 2 May 10          Rnd 3 may 29
mfantin .............314.800                 325.000               ???.???
SamComedian                        272.000
Boxx93........ ......260                    265.000               300.000
Kingslayer..........250                    275.000
KZ-boy                                                    340.000

Henry II                             262.000
Quigley                             255.000                303.000
Chucky ..............240                    252.252
ZackZack                            250.000
Omni .................225                    245.000                375.000 :rant:
Song of Iceroll. .222
Ray.....................215                    273.000                316.000
Spizzer...............215                                           315.000
Edroger..............210
Queen Elsa........210                                           280.000
Ball Lightning.....210
Incaradine..........207                    250.000               368.061.266
Rsyu...................205
Tong Kosong......203                    245.000               318.000
Gokai Red                                                  317.800

Murgatroyd.........200                    258.000
Keysersoze.........200                    225.000
Hans13............. .195                    228.000               305.000
DamienRoc........193,435,058              266.972               321,176,421
Catlover..............190                    255.800
Olive Max...........188.4
Chasmmi............187
Cynosure ...........185
Ray subers.........175 "200 is absurd"         IDK, a lot               500.000 BOM total if the dollar  crashes :ph34r:
corpse ...............170 "never break 244"       200.000               300.000 50/50 never say never!
Labas.................170
‏@giteshpandya ..150                    at 194m "going to blasting thru 200!" - no shit
Lab276 ..............147

Winner is closest dollar amount away from final number. up or down. np penalty for going over. Aim high aim true!
First prize is ray subers job♣
Second place is Gitesh Pandya's job
Third place, a set of steak knives,
 
To prevent the currency rate from coning into play,  the final total will be yen total divided by 102.12, the average rate during the run thus far.
New people welcome.

Edited by T E Lawrence
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mfantin65 Box Office Gold

mfantin65

Posted
Posted (edited)

300m for round 3 baby  B)

 

This train won´t stop!!!

You mite be in the middle of the pack. I think you just went from crazy high in march to conservative. Even Omni has gone batshit crazy  :o
Edited by T E Lawrence
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Ray Indie Sensation

Ray

Posted
Posted

I think my last "prediction" was merely my desire to see it reach $1.3b WW. What's the WW total sans Japan? $1,025.6 according to BOM? In that case, I'll go with $316m, reflecting my desire to see Harry Potter taken down. If my sans-Japan number is off, I'd like to adjust accordingly.

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