JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[edroger3]

2)-6) I'm sorry I didn't understand any of that...

Sincerely hoped not, but I tried. By the way, someone has understand, so I'm happy. Edited June 17, 2014 by edroger

[Fake]

 

Chill I'm not looking for an argument here. 

 

Unfortunately that graph doesn't really suit your case since it's mixed with weekdays as well as weekends. The huge drop on week 9 was from post golden weekend of $11.1 million and had nothing to do with demand falling. Moreover SA's weekdays have always been stronger than Frozen's (summer weekdays) while frozen's weekends have been consistently bigger since around week 7. the decline in the graph from week 9 onwards is from weaker weekdays as there was certainly no decline from weekends up till week 13. I should remind you that the 12th weekend before that was around the same as opening week. Frozen's main business always came from weekends anyway so it was on course for SA no doubt. About Spirited away's drop, I don't know what caused it and it doesn't really matter in this case. What matters is the reason why frozen dropped and as far as I can tell, the meaningful drops didn't start in week 9 it started in week 13 after the dvd announcements. 

 

Movies doesn't work based on the supply and demand of physical goods that we see in the market economy. Since films aren't a physical product, people can consume it over and over again, and the theatres are under no pressure to continue screening it as they can change it whenever they feel the need. More demand will give you more screens yes but it doesn't just hit a high spot and collapse because people are suddenly disinterested. Sharp falls always have a reason. 

 

I'm one of the ones who "seriously" thought about asking disney to delay the DVD and why not I didn't have anything to lose from it and everything to gain. If only feasible and safe ideas were put into practice humans wouldn't have evolved to the point we're at today. 

 

Just because the big drops started after DVD announcement, doesn't necessarily mean that it was due to DVD announcement.

 

Many movies,when they are having record-setting run, run out of steam at some point or other, and start having big drops. And it was about time that Frozen also started dropping.

 

Let me use Titanic's domestic run to illustrate my point. Titanic was having spectacular holds till weekend 15, with a compound average weekend drop of just 4.4% (Wknd1 = 28.6M; Wknd15 - 15.2M(515M cume)). A case could have been made that it would continue with such drops and finish with 900M+. But then for the next 7 weekends it had 'big' drops of 24.6% on average and its 22nd weekend was just 2.1M(573M cume). There wasn't any DVD release announcement that made it drop. It happened just because it had burned too much demand by then. Similar cases can be shown for many other films.

 

Therefore, Frozen was bound to start dropping at some point or another. Nobody knows how much it would have grossed without a DVD release, maybe it might have beaten SA, but there was a good chance it wouldn't have. Blaming solely the announcement for the drops and acting like it was locked to beat SA in its absence is just short-sightedness IMO.

[Rudolf]

The world cup should have affected the box office just one half day (sunday morning) I can't see how it applies to the drops in every other day. 

true soccer fans watch, when Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy, England, Netherlands, Portugal, Argentine, Cote Ivoire, ... are playing

only fanatic Japanese patriots would concentrate on their own team

in the first days we have up to 4 games (almost 2 hours each) a day

Edited June 17, 2014 by Rudolf

[edroger3]

Sunday admissions

 

Wk  Admiss. Diff%

1   319.816 
2   359.992 12,56
3   398.982 10,83
4   332.523  -16,66
5 368.529 10,83
6   344.815  - 6,43
7   343.850  - 0,28
8 457.862 33,16
9 301.520  -34,15
10  365.719 21,29
11  286.346  -21,70
12  459.311 60,40
13  240.127  -47,72
14  152.169  -36,63

 

Someone can explain to me why the 12th Sunday is the highest in admissions and as this is not a big anomaly?

 

Bonus hint: The average of last three is 283.869. The average of previous three is 317.861. A -11,97% drop.

[Rsyu]

Just because the big drops started after DVD announcement, doesn't necessarily mean that it was due to DVD announcement.

 

Many movies,when they are having record-setting run, run out of steam at some point or other, and start having big drops. And it was about time that Frozen also started dropping.

 

Let me use Titanic's domestic run to illustrate my point. Titanic was having spectacular holds till weekend 15, with a compound average weekend drop of just 4.4% (Wknd1 = 28.6M; Wknd15 - 15.2M(515M cume)). A case could have been made that it would continue with such drops and finish with 900M+. But then for the next 7 weekends it had 'big' drops of 24.6% on average and its 22nd weekend was just 2.1M(573M cume). There wasn't any DVD release announcement that made it drop. It happened just because it had burned too much demand by then. Similar cases can be shown for many other films.

 

Therefore, Frozen was bound to start dropping at some point or another. Nobody knows how much it would have grossed without a DVD release, maybe it might have beaten SA, but there was a good chance it wouldn't have. Blaming solely the announcement for the drops and acting like it was locked to beat SA in its absence is just short-sightedness IMO.

 

Yeah I wasn't only pinpointing the DVD announcement though just saying it is a factor. To say it was only a coincidence that frozen dropped just as the announcements came is just as far-fetched as saying it is the sole cause of it. I get what you're saying with Titanic but surely it isn't a recurring pattern with all leggy films? Do they all hold extremely well and suddenly plummet because of burnt out demand? There's got to be other examples where the drops were gradual. 

[Rsyu]

true soccer fans watch, when Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy, England, Netherlands, Portugal, Argentine, Cote Ivoire, ... are playing

only fanatic Japanese patriots would concentrate on their own team

in the first days we have up to 4 games (almost 2 hours each) a day

 

The time difference means it's very difficult to catch games from over here. quite alot happen around 1am ish. Much better to watch replays during the day.

[Omni]

Someone can explain to me why the 12th Sunday is the highest in admissions and as this is not a big anomaly?

 

Bonus hint: The average of last three is 283.869. The average of previous three is 317.861. A -11,97% drop.

Then next Sunday will rise to 200K+. Sweet.

[Fake]

Yeah I wasn't only pinpointing the DVD announcement though just saying it is a factor. To say it was only a coincidence that frozen dropped just as the announcements came is just as far-fetched as saying it is the sole cause of it. I get what you're saying with Titanic but surely it isn't a recurring pattern with all leggy films? Do they all hold extremely well and suddenly plummet because of burnt out demand? There's got to be other examples where the drops were gradual.

Couple of years back when Intouchables was having a record-breaking run, the 5th weekend was similar to the OW and the gross was already 100m+, I remember thinking that Intouchables could do 200m. But in the following two weekends, it had over 30% drops and 200m was gone.Similarly, Avatar, which once looked set for 800m, dropped rapidly from 23.6m in its 9th weekend to less than a million in its 16th weekend.

[Rsyu]

Couple of years back when Intouchables was having a record-breaking run, the 5th weekend was similar to the OW and the gross was already 100m+, I remember thinking that Intouchables could do 200m. But in the following two weekends, it had over 30% drops and 200m was gone.Similarly, Avatar, which once looked set for 800m, dropped rapidly from 23.6m in its 9th weekend to less than a million in its 16th weekend.

 

So what you're saying is all leggy movies plummet suddenly rather than fall gradually? Interesting concept. 

[Fake]

So what you're saying is all leggy movies plummet suddenly rather than fall gradually? Interesting concept.

Depends on your definition of 'plummet'. 25-30% drops is not plummeting. They only look big in comparison to the 5-10% drops, but are otherwise solid drops.So I am saying that most movies who have a crazy run in the beginning, start dropping 'normally' after some time. Edited June 17, 2014 by Fake

[Rsyu]

Depends on your definition of 'plummet'. 25-30% drops is not plummeting. They only look big drops in comparison to the 5-10% drops, but are otherwise solid drops.So I am saying that most movies who have a crazy run in the beginning, start dropping 'normally' after some time.

 

Comparatively speaking of course, it is plummeting. To go from unprecedented to normal drops..it's too rapid a transition.  

[tong kosong]

Just because the big drops started after DVD announcement, doesn't necessarily mean that it was due to DVD announcement.

 

Many movies,when they are having record-setting run, run out of steam at some point or other, and start having big drops. And it was about time that Frozen also started dropping.

 

Let me use Titanic's domestic run to illustrate my point. Titanic was having spectacular holds till weekend 15, with a compound average weekend drop of just 4.4% (Wknd1 = 28.6M; Wknd15 - 15.2M(515M cume)). A case could have been made that it would continue with such drops and finish with 900M+. But then for the next 7 weekends it had 'big' drops of 24.6% on average and its 22nd weekend was just 2.1M(573M cume). There wasn't any DVD release announcement that made it drop. It happened just because it had burned too much demand by then. Similar cases can be shown for many other films.

 

Therefore, Frozen was bound to start dropping at some point or another. Nobody knows how much it would have grossed without a DVD release, maybe it might have beaten SA, but there was a good chance it wouldn't have. Blaming solely the announcement for the drops and acting like it was locked to beat SA in its absence is just short-sightedness IMO.

 

Just like I said in my previous posts. I agree that the DVD release is not the only reason. But to completely dismissing the effect of DVD release is also wrong. My point is that the DVD release might have an impact but it's not the only reason why it dropped

[edroger3]

Yeah I wasn't only pinpointing the DVD announcement though just saying it is a factor. To say it was only a coincidence that frozen dropped just as the announcements came is just as far-fetched as saying it is the sole cause of it. I get what you're saying with Titanic but surely it isn't a recurring pattern with all leggy films? Do they all hold extremely well and suddenly plummet because of burnt out demand? There's got to be other examples where the drops were gradual. 

In a closed ecosystem, or perfect, in which it acts only one limiting factor (in this case the need to watch the movie), the decline would be gradual and would follow an asymptotic curve.

 

In reality, however, there are many limiting factors that act independently and when they are added together produce an exponential decline.

 

Too hard?

Edited June 17, 2014 by edroger

[Rsyu]

In a closed ecosystem, or perfect, in which it acts only one limiting factor (in this case the need to watch the movie), the decline would be gradual and would follow an asymptotic curve.

 

In reality, however, there are many limiting factors that act independently and when they are added together produce an exponential decline.

 

Too hard?

 

It's easy to make up theories to suit established facts. Any man can look like a financial genius with tomorrows newspaper and to be honest what you just described is high school level biology so no it wasn't too hard. Also that is basically what we've all been saying all along, the variables (weather, DVD announcement, world cup etc) all came together to bring about a steep decline over the past few weeks.  

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Edited June 17, 2014 by Henry II of Arendelle

[tong kosong]

Edited June 17, 2014 by tong kosong

[Hernan Gonzalez]

So you guys are saying that the announcement of the DVD release didn't and will not have any effect at all until it's release ?

We know about the DVD releade date because we read this thread. Do you know DVD release dates in your country?? Do you think japanese people know that? I don't even know the DVD release date for 8 Apellidos Vascos here in Spain and it is a huge success

[tong kosong]

We know about the DVD releade date because we read this thread. Do you know DVD release dates in your country?? Do you think japanese people know that? I don't even know the DVD release date for 8 Apellidos Vascos here in Spain and it is a huge success

 

Depends on whether they advertised the release date or not. If they show the release date on TV or somewhere on the street, I might know it. If I remember correctly the DVD release date was shown on TV in Japan, so people in Japan might know about it.

See, my point is the DVD announcement might have an impact even if it was a small impact. Small impact is still an impact right ?

Your previous example was about the people who really want to see Frozen. I never argued about them, my argument was about the people who is unsure whether they want to watch it in cinema or not.

[BadAtGender]

So you guys are saying that the announcement of the DVD release didn't and will not have any effect at all until it's release ?

 

Well, it didn't have an effect in the US.

 

Jan 17–23	5	$18,148,844	+0.6%	2,979	-260	$6,092	$338,780,205	9
Jan 24–30	5	$11,922,124	-34.3%	2,757	-222	$4,324	$350,702,329	10
Jan 31–Feb 6	3	$11,062,297	-7.2%	2,754	-3	$4,017	$361,764,626	11
Feb 7–13	4	$8,426,588	-23.8%	2,460	-294	$3,425	$370,191,214	12
Feb 14–20	7	$9,513,121	+12.9%	2,101	-359	$4,528	$379,704,335	13
Feb 21–27	8	$5,420,808	-43.0%	1,891	-210	$2,867	$385,125,143	14
Feb 28–Mar 6	8	$4,914,971	-9.3%	1,746	-145	$2,815	$390,040,114	15
Mar 7–13	8	$4,198,736	-14.6%	1,660	-86	$2,529	$394,238,850	16
Mar 14–20	10	$2,770,411	-34.0%	1,466	-194	$1,890	$397,009,261	17
Mar 21–27	13	$1,044,614	-62.3%	1,069	-397	$977	$398,053,875	18
Mar 28–Apr 3	17	$485,138	-53.6%	387	-682	$1,254	$398,539,013	19

 

I don't remember exactly when the DVD announcement came out. It may have been in January that we first got wind of it, though. In any case: What Frozen established in January and February was a pattern of solid holds followed by larger drops, but overall it held up extremely strong. The biggest drop came after the Presidents/Valentines weekend. That was also coincidentally right after the VOD release, but if you check out the early March holds, it still remained strong.

 

It was only right after the DVD release on March 18 that it started to drop precipitously. Up to that point, people were perfectly willing to go watch it. And note it was still playing extremely wide in first run theaters, so it's not like families could go see the film for $10 as a group or anything.

 

And competition wasn't key, either. The openings of The Nut Job, The Lego Movie, and Mr. Peabody & Sherman all came during this span and Frozen was only negligibly affected by any of them.

Edited June 17, 2014 by DamienRoc

[catlover]

We know about the DVD releade date because we read this thread. Do you know DVD release dates in your country?? Do you think japanese people know that? I don't even know the DVD release date for 8 Apellidos Vascos here in Spain and it is a huge success

 

It was on TV, and also Frozen has one of the highest pre-orders for DVD if I remember correctly, so obviously people in Japan know about it. What happened in Spain (or in the US) doesn't necessarily reflects what's happening in Japan. Yes that movie in Spain didn't fall because of DVD announcement (and it might not have any impact in the US), but that doesn't mean in Japan, Frozen didn't fall because of that. There are facts that lead us to the conclusion that it is likely the DVD announcement has some kind of impact to its box office in Japan.