JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

"Might have done relatively well"

 

If they were so bad at reading the pre-sale numbers that they thought two movies that combined ended up making less than Zootopia's weekend should deserve of the 73.8% of seats between the three, then yes, they are stupid. If they want to favor local movies I could understand, but if not it's massive market inefficiency.

Zootopia didn't really come close to selling out all of its seats across the country, so it's not like the movie is being suppressed.

[maxima]

 

46 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Zootopia didn't really come close to selling out all of its seats across the country, so it's not like the movie is being suppressed.

I think Zootopia can keep the pace until July. in normal cases. June is not really a strong month for films.

 

last year didn't however, mid-June was dominated by two films that did far beyond their expectations, plus their fan base and chain did not overlap overlap each other much. So you should hope there is nothing like that happen this year.

 

[LMAbacus]

4 hours ago, Cynosure said:

Seat adjustments in Japan are pretty slow. You almost never have a movie losing a huge amount of seats quickly even when it flops like it happens in China. The biggest movies can manage around 50% capacity at most during their opening weekend so unless you're Frozen there comes a point where more seats really don't make that much of a difference.

 

Well, it seemed to have been adjusted up pretty quickly from Friday (204,381) to Saturday (324,548). I'm fine with Cats not losing seats over the week; after all, US theaters give new wide-release movies at least two weeks. I just wonder why Zootopia kept bleeding seats at such a quick and consistent rate the last two weeks, going from a Golden-Week high of 335,963 to Friday's number, despite being the highest-grossing movie for most of it.

 

Also, giving so many seats to Cats seemed a strange decision itself. Corpse estimates that at its pre-sale peak, Cats had a weekend estimate of only ¥300 million, so it's not like it was some big blockbuster that required a lot of screens, and yet it got almost 400k, and most of the largest screens. And in the end, Cats did lose a huge amount of seats this Saturday, dropping more than 50% from last week.

 

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Zootopia didn't really come close to selling out all of its seats across the country, so it's not like the movie is being suppressed.

 

Well yeah, because a lot of those seats are in low population areas, or at unpopular times like Sunday evening, or showing the subbed version. The dubbed showings at the peak times in higher population centers could very well have been.

 

Also, it's not just about adding screens, but not losing them. Right now the movie is barely ahead of last Friday in admissions despite the discounts, and I just noticed that it lost 22% of screens compared to last Friday, compared to 12-17% for the rest of the week. All that adds up.

Edited May 20, 2016 by LMAbacus

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, maxima said:

 

I think Zootopia can keep the pace until July. in normal cases. June is not really a strong month for films.

 

last year didn't however, mid-June was dominated by two films that did far beyond their expectations, plus their fan base and chain did not overlap overlap each other much. So you should hope there is nothing like that happen this year.

 

 

Love Live and Mad Max, right? The only movie that I recognize this June that might break out is Deadpool. I know that Japan generally doesn't go for superhero movies, and there are a lot of pop culture references that I have no idea how they plan to deal with, but it's far more romantic than the typical superhero movie, which could help with such a female-dominated movie-going demographic. He's also linked with Spiderman (overall design, making jokes, meeting up in the comics, crack fanart), and Spiderman is by far Japan's favorite superhero.

[maxima]

23 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

Love Live and Mad Max, right? The only movie that I recognize this June that might break out is Deadpool. I know that Japan generally doesn't go for superhero movies, and there are a lot of pop culture references that I have no idea how they plan to deal with, but it's far more romantic than the typical superhero movie, which could help with such a female-dominated movie-going demographic. He's also linked with Spiderman (overall design, making jokes, meeting up in the comics, crack fanart), and Spiderman is by far Japan's favorite superhero.

this is enough to make a questionmark, even I believe the odds of Zootopia crossing the mark is still high, for now.

[cannastop]

rank  tickets  seats avl  showings  theaters  percent of last week

*1　20852　208773　*931　223　111.8%　ズートピア (Zootopia)
*2　15218　286641　1090　214　1377.2%　殿、利息でござる！(Tono, risoku de gozaru)
*3　14800　*15388　**43　*28　******　舞台「刀剣乱舞」ライブビューイング (Some live event)
*4　13594　362393　1184　208　******　世界から猫が消えたなら (If Cats Disappeared)

 

11.8% increase for Zootopia due to discounts. Also, this is Tono's first real Friday, so I don't know where that percentage comes from.

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11523.html

Edited May 20, 2016 by cannastop

[Quigley]

11.8% higher than last Friday right?

[cannastop]

14 minutes ago, Quigley said:

11.8% higher than last Friday right?

Yes.

[Cynosure]

Pre-sales for Saturday :

 

*1　19119　222699　723　150　*78.0%　ズートピア
*2　11709　*40761　200　*89　******　ガールズ＆パンツァー 劇場版
*3　10161　*29484　*75　*10　******　機動戦士ガンダム ＴＨＥ ＯＲＩＧＩＮ Ⅲ 暁の蜂起
*4　*5793　*99250　565　152　*55.6%　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・アメリカ
*5　*4440　164896　636　123　******　海よりもまだ深く
*6　*4203　132303　648　139　*42.6%　殿、利息でござる！
*7　*4072　103843　626　141　*46.1%　６４－ロクヨン－前編
*8　*3665　131444　689　139　*38.2%　世界から猫が消えたなら
*9　*3193　*97652　533　150　*48.3%　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の悪夢（ナイトメア）
10　*2364　*23706　110　*86　*18.1%　劇場版 遊☆戯☆王 ＴＨＥ ＤＡＲＫ ＳＩＤＥ ＯＦ ＤＩＭＥＮＳＩＯＮＳ

[LMAbacus]

Are pre-sales actually predictive? Just looking at Zootopia, it had mediocre pre-sale numbers two weekends ago and ended up with over 80k. Then last weekend it saw a massive number of pre-sales, and increased only slightly over the previous week. And now this Saturday pre-sales are down from last week. Are they more useful for new

releases?

[Cynosure]

Holdovers usually drop more in pre-sales compared to total weekend holds so that's useful. Considering that last saturday was a discount day at Toho's, pre-sales drop will be a bit harsher compared to a normal weekend, therefore I think with a 22% drop in pre-sales for Zootopia in admissions we're definitely looking at a single-digit drop in admissions for the weekend (around 7-8% I'd say) and an even lower drop in revenue if not a flat weekend overall.

Edited May 21, 2016 by Cynosure

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Weekend Forecast (05/21-22)/2016年05月21日-2016年05月22日
01 (01) ¥394,000,000 ($3.6 million), -14%, ¥4,375,000,000 ($40.9 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK5
02 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), After the Storm (Gaga) NEW
03 (02) ¥124,000,000 ($1.1 million), -36%, ¥550,000,000 ($5.0 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) WK2
04 (03) ¥121,000,000 ($1.1 million), -34%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥116,000,000 ($1.0 million), -31%, ¥950,000,000 ($9.1 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK3
06 (04) ¥114,000,000 ($1.0 million), -32%, ¥5,650,000,000 ($52.1 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK6
07 (06) ¥102,000,000 ($920,000), -28%, ¥2,375,000,000 ($22.0 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK4
08 (08) ¥57,000,000 ($520,000), -27%, ¥1,850,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK6
09 (09) ¥47,000,000 ($430,000), -35%, ¥1,420,000,000 ($13.4 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) WK5
10 (10) ¥46,000,000 ($420,000), -29%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.5 million), Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) WK4

Zootopia is going to win its third-consecutive week atop the box-office, and is looking to score another very impressive chart-topping figure. Since it increased last weekend, and with pre-sales being lower than last Saturday's, another weekend increase doesn't look likely, however, a sub-20% hold is looking good, and I wouldn't rule out a single digit drop either.

Its weekday performance this past week was notably impressive, with each individual day being up versus two weeks ago. Unless it has an unexpected drop this weekend, and there's no signs suggesting that'll happen, the film still hasn't shown any indication of slowing down at the box office quite yet despite going into its fifth week.

After the Storm is award-winning director Hirokazu Koreeda's (Like Father, Like Son, Our Little Sister) latest release starring Hiroshi Abe and Yoko Maki. It's not going to debut to anything remarkable, but it's likely to develop excellent legs thanks to its reception, and also what's bound to be strong weekday business due to its older demographic.

And finally, two films that are very difficult to predict, but are likely going to rank in the Top 10 this weekend:

Girls und Panzer: The Movie (yes, the one that's been playing since last November...) is expanding a lot this weekend; including numerous premium format showing additions. Its pre-sales are very strong and its avg. ticket price will be very high, so it's probably going to chart back in the Top 10 once again. If I had to make a prediction, I'd go with it coming in 7th place this weekend.

And the third film in the Mobile Suit Gundam Origins series is opening this weekend, and could very well make the Top 10 this weekend, too. The last film debuted with ¥55 million last October, which would be enough for a Top 10 position for weekend's release if can replicate its debut. Its chances of making the Top 10 are more likely than not.

 

Edited May 21, 2016 by Cynosure

[POTUS 2020]

Last Saturdays 1400 total was 48500 on a Toho day.  You can reduce that to 43500  for an admission/revenue adjustment.

 

It's pacing 40 -45k right now.

[JohnnyG99]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Last Saturdays 1400 total was 48500 on a Toho day.  You can reduce that to 43500  for an admission/revenue adjustment.

 

It's pacing 40 -45k right now.

47176 as of 14:06

[POTUS 2020]

1401 update -11% WoW. that should be close to flat in revenue.

1406 , 20 minute update jumped 47k. 

Looks like it'll be another $6m week (sat-fri) bringing the total to 43.3m.

60m is the floor if 25% drops start happening next week.

70m a good possibility

80m+ need to see next Saturdays hold. could happen

 

Edited May 21, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Foul01]

14:00 numbers are in.

 

Zootopia is 43,266

 

Considering that 14:00 numbers are 49.3% of the total ticket sales last Saturday, using the same ratio and assuming ticket price is 1,350 yen, exchange rate is 108, and coverage is 63%,

The total ticket sales today should be around 87,760 and the box office should be around $1.74M.

 

This is roughly a 3~4% drop from last Saturday.

 

Good hold.

[kayumanggi]

Where do we see it ending up?

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Where do we see it ending up?

$60M or ¥6.6B for Zootopia. Conservative estimate, I guess.

Edited May 21, 2016 by cannastop

[Quigley]

The floor is Big Hero 6's 15x multiple.

[edroger3]