JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

  Path to 300

There has been a lot of talk about whether or not Frozen could "catch up" to SA. Summer vs. spring is not a fair comparison. I found that one week of summer equals two weeks of non summer for the box office in general or for an individual movie as the midweek can be triple. E=mc2. Light is constant but mass varies. We cant compare energies/BO with the same constant/week time and different masses/moviegoers. Its like filling 2 pools, one with a fire hose for 7 weeks while the other gets a fire hose for 2 weeks and a garden hose for 5 and saying one cant catch up. GW evens the score with and both will have garden hoses going forward, I hear American hoses are larger than Asian hoses, so advantage frozen.   Week 8- SA compared to week 10-Frozen will create an apple to apple comparison, Fuji vs. Macintosh. Both will have finished their summer/SB/holiday periods with similar ticket sales/burn off. Both will face little competition for people/seats/screens for the next several weeks. Then FR enters summer and Obon, SA enters December and New Years. It will be easy to track the strides side by side on the path to 300.

 

This projection is with 15% average drops ) after next weekend which has yet to materialize in the run. At 10% or less and a 100% hold here or there and it climbs to 300m+ quickly.

Spirited Away numbers have been converted to current exchange rate.

 

With the way Frozen has performed I see it keeping pace with SA and I'm calling it a lock, I just don't see it "crashing" like HMC.

 

#   Howl's MC  Spirited Away Frozen
WE Week TOT   WE   Week TOT   MW WE   Week   TOT
1 13.988  13.998 13.998 7.531 9.731   9.731
2 11.680  20.400 44.430  11.300  8.550  19.800 29.535
3 9.832  21.400 65.878   10.000  10.000 10.000   13.400  8.569  22.000 51.579
4  9.165  15.400 81.210 9.500 32.000 42.000   15.300  8.238 23.500 75.100
5 8.100  15.800 97.000 8.700 29.500 71.500    7.800  8.286 16.000 90.600
6  7.400  15.000  112.000 9.200  34.500  106.000    5.900 8.046  14.000  104.800
7 6.866  13.700  125.703 8.700  24.500  130.500 6.500  7.558 13.400  118.400
8 6.171  20.100  145.795 8.800  16.200  146.700   14.100 11.100 24.900 144.400 GW Bump
9  3.367 8.800  154.556 6.700  22.200  167.100 15.800  7.200  23.000  167.400 Smmr/GW-Over(OFF#)
10 2.323 5.300  159.840 6.800  15.100  181.200  5.200  6.500  11.700  178.900 FR/est Leg battle!

11 2.464 3.500  163.425 6.400  13.100  194.300  4.600  5.500 10.100  189.000
12 1.817 2.800  166.170 5.000 12.500  205.800  4.000  4.800 8.800  197.800
13 1.812 4.000  170.218 4.300  11.000  216.800 3.400  4.100 7.500  205.300 Oct/June
14 1.219 2.300  172.561 3.900 6.500  223.300 3.000  3.500 6.500  211.800

15 1.090 1.500  174.104 2.600 4.400  227.700 2.600  3.000 5.600  217.400

16   2.600 4.700  232.400 2.300 2.600 4.900  222.300

17   3.200 5.900  238.300  2.000  2.200 4.200  226.500 Nov/July

18   2.900  5.900  244.200 1.700  1.900 3.600  230.100

19   1.900  3.900  248.100 4.000  2.400 6.400  236.500 Summer Bump FR

20   1.800  3.200  251.300  3.600  2.000 5.600  242.100 

21   2.500 3.800  255.100 3.200  1.800 5.000  247.100 December SA

22   1.500 3.200 258.200  2.800  1.600 4.400  251.500

23 1.100 2.100 260.300  3.500 2.000 5.700  257.200 Obon Bump FR

Extended Run   190.000 Extended Run  294.000 Extended Run   300.000  

 

 

That's with 15% drops Omni. Mondays number bodes well for a 10% or better hold. Like I said your 244 is safe.

Edited May 12, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Omni]

No, that's with 11/12% drops and a few bumps. It can't keep the same kind of holds till August (logic and statistics say that), at some point it will start to slow down, "just like" every other film in the worldwide history of (recent?) box office. [at least, from what I know - maybe there have been exceptions I'm unaware of]

 

I'm pretty sure it will get its 20, 30, 40 and possibly even 50%+ drops later in the run. That's why it's important for it to keep these single-digit decreases as long as possible.

Edited May 12, 2014 by Omni

[mfantin65]

No, that's with 11/12% drops and a few bumps. It can't keep the same kind of holds till August (logic and statistics say that), at some point it will start to slow down, "just like" every other film in the worldwide history of (recent?) box office. [at least, from what I know - maybe there have been exceptions I'm unaware of]I'm pretty sure it will get its 20, 30, 40 and possibly even 50%+ drops later in the run. That's why it's important for it to keep these single-digit decreases as long as possible.

The weekends are 14-16%, The 15% average accounts for small drops and potentially larger drops.(30%) combined. The weeks increase because of summer. Yes I threw in a bump at beginning of summer and Obon. I think there will be a few flat weekends in there as well and make the forward numbers swell. I don't know about 50% decreases happening. It should do that this weekend if it is ever going to do it. Didnt you say we were going to have steep drops 5 weeks ago because of blah blah. Stop reading corpse, youre losing too much weight. Also it'll probably stay in theaters until December making 1-2m per week in the fall.your 245m is :locked:Thats a triple lock also known as The Ray Subers guarantee. Edited May 12, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

Edroger, didnt you do a daily with toho admidions, tohox and gross a while back. Could you update and post please. Could be of use to calculate this week.it would we good to use the other three chains too starting w last wed if you want to do that Hans. Thx

[edroger3]

Edroger, didnt you do a daily with toho admidions, tohox and gross a while back. Could you update and post please. Could be of use to calculate this week.it would we good to use the other three chains too starting w last wed if you want to do that Hans. Thx

I hope finally someone (bom, boxoffice, the numbers...) update officials for past two weeks, so I can have the right data to do a good work. I think wednesday morning. By the way, with singalong disappeared like a ghost, toho x could be returned over 70 in midweek.

[mfantin65]

Massive overestimation from mfantin.

We're getting used to it :PThis GW could be around 23/24M.

[8....6.171...20.100...145.795.......6.800...15.100..181.200......18.000.10.800...28.800..149.800 POP!!9....3.367.....8.800...154.556.......6.400...13.100..194.300........9.500...7.500...17.000..166.800 Catching up, Summer over for the ghosts.

over estimate? I was 600k short for $48m GW. Not a bad a call 2 weeks out.kiss my ass before wiping it chamber pot boys Edited May 12, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

I hope finally someone (bom, boxoffice, the numbers...) update officials for past two weeks, so I can have the right data to do a good work. I think wednesday morning. By the way, with singalong disappeared like a ghost, toho x could be returned over 70 in midweek.

yup w other cinemas holding well I applied 75x for today like it was 3 weeks ago.

[rhfqkddl45]

Monday 5/12 Admissions [kinezo+109+toho]

 

         

         Wk-6      Wk-7     Wk-10 (This Week)  

 

Toho     20665   14202  12496

109      2486      3097     3428

Kinezo   2535      3279     2971 

*Total 25686     20578    18895

[mfantin65]

Can you throw movix in there please. It'll come in handy down the road.Movix monday 4286

[mfantin65]

I hope finally someone (bom, boxoffice, the numbers...) update officials for past two weeks, so I can have the right data to do a good work. I think wednesday morning. By the way, with singalong disappeared like a ghost, toho x could be returned over 70 in midweek.

The 4 chains combined come out to a 37% market share.Lets double check w deadlines number. A combined multiplier will be more consistent. TMK1x Edited May 12, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[rhfqkddl45]

Can you throw movix in there please. It'll come in handy down the road.Movix monday 4286

 

Yes, of course. and this is last weekend 4 chains total admissions.

 

*195,510  

 

actual weekend gross -  737,761,900 yen

 

edit: weekend Total admssions = 541,094

Edited May 13, 2014 by Hans13

[Omni]

over estimate? I was 600k short for $48m GW. Not a bad a call 2 weeks out.kiss my ass before wiping it chamber pot boys

That was referred to your projections right before and at the beginning of GW. 9.8M weekend (vs 7.6M actual), overestimated first days of GW, 29M+ projection for the first 7 days of GW. We were talking about your short-term throws, not the (usually good) long term ones. It's evident you like to shoot high, and Frozen's Japanese run has always followed or overtaken that craziness so far.

 

About the upcoming months, I still prefer adopting the same caution and 'statistic realism' that worked in NA, SK and Sweden. Yes, this is Japan, but the rule applies there too, it's just a difference of size. A chart including the weekends of the top 10 films in Japan, as well as a chart of the leggiest films in every other country would help. Am I saying Frozen won't break this last ultimate rule, or that it won't beat the absurd limit of a 30.5x multiplier set by Spirited Away? No, it can possibly even get a 20x post-GW and a 40x overall multiplier. But there are negative variables/factor to consider.

Let's travel with Zapotec's time machine. Back to 13 years ago. Spirited Away just had it's 9th weekend: 6.4M (using your adjusted #s) after a mere 6% drop. The weekend before it increased by 1-2%. The overall multiplier already close to 20x, and with no sign of slowing down. Why would it start to slow down all of a sudden? Why just an 11-12x multiplier, so significantly weaker than its pace as of then? Because even that monster couldn't keep stability and interest for more than 2/3 months. Weekend 9 dropped 36% from weekend 1, while weekend 13 was down 60% from weekend 9. That's 4 times worse. Average drop during the first 2 months: 5%. Average drop in the 3rd month: 20%.

To sum up, I just can't feel confident about 250M+ because of how things shaped up in the past. Without this burden, I'd consider 250M a lock and I'd be relatively disappointed by anything under 270M. Around 245M with SA's legs. I'll stick with that. Can't predict it to be the biggest box office thing of all time.

Frozen should hopefully keep most of its strength till late May (6.5+ weekend expected), while June won't be kind. Reasons above, and in my gut. Projection for June: many digestion troubles.

[Murgatroyd]

The weekends are 14-16%, The 15% average accounts for small drops and potentially larger drops.(30%) combined. The weeks increase because of summer. Yes I threw in a bump at beginning of summer and Obon. I think there will be a few flat weekends in there as well and make the forward numbers swell.I don't know about 50% decreases happening. It should do that this weekend if it is ever going to do it. Didnt you say we were going to have steep drops 5 weeks ago because of blah blah. Stop reading corpse, youre losing too much weight. Also it'll probably stay in theaters until December making 1-2m per week in the fall.your 245m is :locked:Thats a triple lock also known as The Ray Subers guarantee.

 

Looking at the other top animated movies that we have numbers for, 50% week-to-week drops are unheard-of except at the very end of the run.  25-35% drops, on the other hand, are fairly common.

[mfantin65]

Toho Movix Kinezo 109 = 36% market share = 2.78 x$15.00= 41.67 weekday TMK1x$13.30= 37.00 sunday/holiday$13.20= 36.70 weekend total$13.10= 36.40 saturday$12.00= 33.36 Wednesday $11.40= 31.70 discount dayThank you Hans.

Edited May 13, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

That was referred to your projections right before and at the beginning of GW. 9.8M weekend (vs 7.6M actual), overestimated first days of GW, 29M+ projection for the first 7 days of GW. We were talking about your short-term throws, not the (usually good) long term ones. It's evident you like to shoot high, and Frozen's Japanese run has always followed or overtaken that craziness so far

I did say in the beginning I wasnt sure how the days would go with the uncertainty of vacation days. I did blow the first weekend but in total I nailed it. U broke balls a little, I had to break back :)Eat and be merry! The run will be monumental. Only The Avengers is going to take this monster down, right Quigley? I just had Oreos and half'n half. Edited May 13, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[catlover]

Btw some people here asked about competitions for Frozen in the coming weeks. Here's the schedule for May, June and July:

Wk 10　(5/17～)　(Nothing in particular)Wk 11　(5/24～)　Seiten no Hekireki　　Wk 12　(5/31～)　X-Men (5/30 release), MONSTERZ (5/30 release), All-Round Appraiser QWk 13　(6/07～)　PompeiiWk 14　(6/14～)　Noah (6/13 release), Haru wo SeotteWk 15　(6/21～)　300: Rise of an Empire (6/20 release), Saint Seiya: Legend of SanctuaryWk 16　(6/28～)　TranscendenceWk 17　(7/05～)　Maleficent, Edge of Tomorrow (7/4 release), Kawaki (7/4 release),Wk 18　(7/12～)　Say "I Love You"Wk 19　(7/19～)　Planes 2, When Marnie Was There (Ghibli), Pokemon, Kamen RiderWk 20　(7/26～)　Godzilla (7/25 release), Eight Ranger 2

 

All-Round Appraiser Q might break out and challenge Frozen for #1, it looks very "Da Vinci Code"-ish. If it doesn't, then 300 could, but unlikely. I'm not sure about Noah. Johnny Depp is huge in Japan and The Tourist opened with $3.8m, so Transcendence might do similar number. If those movies fail, then Frozen will probably stay at #1 until Maleficent.

[BadAtGender]

How popular is Angelina Jolie in Japan?

 

Actually, I think it's more likely that Edge of Tomorrow will be bigger than Maleficent that weekend.

[mfantin65]

Toho 4684

[mfantin65]

Saturday 5/10 admission 2:30 PM Local

 

added to LABAS previous Post

 

           m      t      w      t      f      s       s

First W   ---------------------------18517--29035--38186

Second    9396--10976--21854--12231--33278--32430--39828

Third    14958--19027--46478--25446--21273--29380--45305 (SB)

Fourth   25661--41430--43550--25701--22309--28912--39206 (SB)

five     11300---6600--15565---4400---3900--25002--38584  

Sixth     8552---3795--12737---3642---4167--23857--38683

7th       6919--15728--14489---3828---3850--25879--39237

8th      11905--42217--18274--21316---8933--43529--51195 (GW)

9th      60863--56650--12570---4430---4214--23741

not the smallest day yet. Maybe 7m has a shot this weekend. Wed will be a good bell weather.

[23IsEverywhere]

It beats 6th week Tuesday so I'm happy

Edited May 13, 2014 by 23IsEverywhere