JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[lab276]

Japan box office is shit this year

For Hollywood movies, not in general.

[druv10]

I am saying the legs haven't been great. There's a difference between what's good and what's great.The 6-day multiplier is actually 2.41x which is good, but not great. User reviews average are around 3.5-3.8, also good but not great. I'm not saying it's performance hasn't been good, it indeed has, it just hasn't been great enough to indicate a large uptick in the sequel, imo, and is going to gross in it's expected (post-Opening Week) 3.5 billion ($40-50 million) range in the end. The studio was projecting it to reach 5 billion ($65 million) after it's opening and it won't come anywhere near that. Of course, studios in Japan often overproject to build hype, too, meaning it didn't underperform. It still had one of the better performances this year, and arguably the best among Hollywood releases.

You know more about the Japanese BO than me so I won't argue with you regarding WOM for TA but something seems off. I remember you posting users scores and it was behind both Mad3(4.0) and TDKR(4.0). It'll easily double both of them. If it's not WOM then what? Also, your words movies usually only get 2x multiplier for Obon holidays and TA's easily past that number. If you thought 2.4+ is only good then were you predicting bad legs when you said TA should get around 2x and finish with around 35M. Regardless, you worried me with your pre-release prediction of 20-25M TA and finishing third for SH so it's run has pretty much satisfied me. I'm hoping when TA2 comes out, it shocks us again.

[lab276]

Maybe TDKR and Mad3 are better films, but don't satisfy as large an audience as TA?

[druv10]

Maybe TDKR and Mad3 are better films, but don't satisfy as large an audience as TA?

Your point would work for Mad 3 but not TDKR as TA got better a multiplier than it. Usually multipliers are associated with WOM.

[lab276]

Your point would work for Mad 3 but not TDKR as TA got better a multiplier than it. Usually multipliers are associated with WOM.

It works for both, TDKR pleased fewer people better, but TA pleased more people just fine, so it won out.

[druv10]

It works for both, TDKR pleased fewer people better, but TA pleased more people just fine, so it won out.

Maybe but wouldn't a movie with better WOM get a better multiplier over time?

[Corpse]

You know more about the Japanese BO than me so I won't argue with you regarding WOM for TA but something seems off. I remember you posting users scores and it was behind both Mad3(4.0) and TDKR(4.0). It'll easily double both of them. If it's not WOM then what? Also, your words movies usually only get 2x multiplier for Obon holidays and TA's easily past that number. If you thought 2.4+ is only good then were you predicting bad legs when you said TA should get around 2x and finish with around 35M. Regardless, you worried me with your pre-release prediction of 20-25M TA and finishing third for SH so it's run has pretty much satisfied me. I'm hoping when TA2 comes out, it shocks us again.

You can dispute points anytime you want. I may follow the Japan Box Office very closely, but I still can't predict everything correctly 100% of the time.It's mostly the release date that is responsible for the legs. Films released in late July/mid August can develop mammoth legs due to schools being out of session and holidays. This is especially true for films that skew younger since families actually have time during those 6-8 weeks to see movies. Once September hits though, they tend to drop off fast unless they're big audience favorites like this year's 'Wolf Children'. 'The Avengers' hasn't really had any impressive results since then. Also, when I said films usually get around a 2 multiplier when they open mid-week during Obon or Golden Week, remember that there are so few examples of this (I can only recall 3) there is definitely room for a film to have a weaker or stronger multiplier. The Avengers is going to end up with a 6-day multiplier around 2.7. That's good, definitely above average, but again I wouldn't call it great or excellent because post-Summer numbers have been so-so. On a scale of 1-5, I'd give the legs a 3.5-4 for example. Edited September 23, 2012 by Corpse

[Corpse]

Sept. 22-23

Weekend Estimates

1 (1) Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony) ¥470 million ($6 million), -31%, Week 2

2 (2) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) ¥410 million ($5.2 million), -36%, Week 3

3 (3) Rurouni Kenshin (Warner Bros.) ¥110 million ($1.4 million), -34%, Week 5

4 (4) Insight into the Universe (Shochiku) ¥80 million ($1.1 million), -44%, Week 2

5 (6) Dearest (Toho) ¥60 million ($750,000), -45%, Week 5

6 (7) Key of Life (Klockworx) ¥55 million ($700,000), -24%, Week 2

7 (9) The Intouchables (Gaga) ¥50 million ($650,000), -21%, Week 4

8 (6) The Avengers (Disney) ¥45 million ($600,000), -46%, Week 6

9 (8) Mirror Mirror (Gaga) ¥40 million ($500,000), -34%, Week 2

10 (-) Rock of Ages (Warner Bros.) ¥40 million ($500,000), 0, NEW

Excellent second weekend hold for 'Resident Evil 5'. If the estimate holds, it's about 10% better than it's predecessor's second weekend drop and bigger in gross as well. I suppose it's around ¥2.2 billion ($28 million) now and will likely surpass it's NA total by next weekend as it aims for over ¥4 billion ($50 million).

'Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL' dips slight more than expected, though it's three week total probably exceeded ¥3.5 billion ($45 million).

'The Intouchables' has the best hold in the Top 10 again. The lack of any major openers also propels it up the rankings, too. It's definitely exceeded ¥500 million ($6.5 million) by now.

No data is available for 'Tiger & Bunny', so the Top 10 Ranking could change a bit depending on where it lands. I didn't pay much attention to the box office this weekend, however I didn't see as many sellouts as I was expecting for it

Edited September 23, 2012 by Corpse

[Olive]

Did Intouchables go wide?

[Corpse]

No, but it added several showtimes at Toho this week.

[fmpro]

Incredibly bad for ROA

[druv10]

You can dispute points anytime you want. I may follow the Japan Box Office very closely, but I still can't predict everything correctly 100% of the time.It's mostly the release date that is responsible for the legs. Films released in late July/mid August can develop mammoth legs due to schools being out of session and holidays. This is especially true for films that skew younger since families actually have time during those 6-8 weeks to see movies. Once September hits though, they tend to drop off fast unless they're big audience favorites like this year's 'Wolf Children'. 'The Avengers' hasn't really had any impressive results since then. Also, when I said films usually get around a 2 multiplier when they open mid-week during Obon or Golden Week, remember that there are so few examples of this (I can only recall 3) there is definitely room for a film to have a weaker or stronger multiplier. The Avengers is going to end up with a 6-day multiplier around 2.7. That's good, definitely above average, but again I wouldn't call it great or excellent because post-Summer numbers have been so-so. On a scale of 1-5, I'd give the legs a 3.5-4 for example.

I sounded harsh with my post but thanks for a better clarification.

[The Toymaker]

Can't imagine the Japs liking Rock of Ages. Pretty much a waste of time and money to even release it there.

[Rudolf]

What is the most successful French movie in Japan?

I found that Coco Before Chanel(2009) did $7,045,08 that is more than $4m in Germany and almost as much as in France $8.7m.

[Olive]

Intouchables has amassed 570M yen so far.RE5 broke 2 billion yen mark.

[jerem4502]

Oceans $25,545,132 is n°1

[Rudolf]

Oceans $25,545,132 is n°1

thanks

and for a movie with French sound dubbed in Japanese?

[jerem4502]

The Pianist (2002) $24,559,779

French sound dubbed in Japanese? I don't know. Maybe Amelie Poulain but I don't have a dollar figure. Just more than 1 million spectators.

[Corpse]

Sept. 22-23

Weekend Ranking

1 (1) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) Week 3

2 (2) Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony) Week 2

3 (4) Insight into the Universe (Shochiku) Week 2

4 (3) Rurouni Kenshin (Toho) Week 5

5 (-) Tiger & Bunny The Movie (Shochiku/T-Joy) NEW

6 (9) The Intouchables (Gaga) Week 4

7 (5) Dearest (Toho) Week 5

8 (6) Key of Life (Klockworx) Week 2

9 (8) Mirror Mirror (Gaga) Week 2

10 (7) The Avengers (Disney) Week 6

Interesting weekend. None of the films in the Top 5 rank the same in admissions and gross. Above is the admissions ranking. Here is the gross ranking:

1 (1) Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony) Week 2

2 (2) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) Week 3

3 (-) Tiger & Bunny The Movie (Shochiku/T-Joy) NEW

4 (3) Rurouni Kenshin (Warner Bros.) Week 5

5 (4) Insight into the Universe (Shochiku) Week 2

'Resident Evil 5' exceeded ¥2 billion ($25 million) after 10 days. The actual figure is closer to ¥2.2 billion ($28 milion), though.

'Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL' exceeded 2.5 million admissions and ¥3.5 billion ($45 million) after 17 days.

'Tiger & Bunny' grossed ¥117,650,000 ($1.5 million) over the weekend on 74,143 admissions on just 70 screens. That's a very high avg. ticket price of about ¥1,587 ($21), even a bit higher than 3D releases. This was mainly due to the first day live world premiere on Saturday where tickets went for ¥9,240 ($118!)! 30% of the weekend total came from that single world premiere showing alone on Saturday. 95% of the viewers at the world premiere showing were female. Fans can be crazy sometimes.

Edited September 25, 2012 by Corpse

[cremino]

Sept. 22-23

Weekend Ranking

1 (1) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) Week 3

2 (2) Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony) Week 2

3 (4) Insight into the Universe (Shochiku) Week 2

4 (3) Rurouni Kenshin (Toho) Week 5

5 (-) Tiger & Bunny The Movie (Shochiku/T-Joy) NEW

6 (9) The Intouchables (Gaga) Week 4

7 (5) Dearest (Toho) Week 5

8 (6) Key of Life (Klockworx) Week 2

9 (8) Mirror Mirror (Gaga) Week 2

10 (7) The Avengers (Disney) Week 6

Interesting weekend. None of the films in the Top 5 rank the same in admissions and gross. Above is the admissions ranking. Here is the gross ranking:

1 (1) Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony) Week 2

2 (2) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) Week 3

3 (-) Tiger & Bunny The Movie (Shochiku/T-Joy) NEW

4 (3) Rurouni Kenshin (Warner Bros.) Week 5

5 (4) Insight into the Universe (Shochiku) Week 2

'Resident Evil 5' exceeded ¥2 billion ($25 million) after 10 days. The actual figure is closer to ¥2.2 billion ($28 milion), though.

'Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL' exceeded 2.5 million admissions and ¥3.5 billion ($45 million) after 17 days.

'Tiger & Bunny' grossed ¥117,650,000 ($1.5 million) over the weekend on 74,143 admissions on just 70 screens. That's a very high avg. ticket price of about ¥1,587 ($21), even a bit higher than 3D releases. This was mainly due to the first day live world premiere on Saturday where tickets went for ¥9,240 ($118!)! 30% of the weekend total came from that single world premiere showing alone on Saturday. 95% of the viewers at the world premiere showing were female. Fans can be crazy sometimes.

I remember that the anime was a hit last year