JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Cynosure]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

[cannastop]

Hmm. Looks like Zootopia isn't going to be able to match what Detective Conan did last week, given the number of seats.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Usual Locations - Seating/Showtimes (Two-Thirds of Overall Market)

[Sat., 04/23]
TW (LW) Seats (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (01) 464,132 (-16%), [208/1,299], Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK2
02 (--) 346,638 (---), [213/1,425], Zootopia (Disney) NEW
03 (--) 189,755 (---), [194/1,016], I Am a Hero (Toho) NEW
04 (02) 178,969 (-47%), [205/957], Crayon Shin-chan: Fast Asleep! The Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK2
05 (--) 174,150 (---), [207/993], The Revenant (Fox) NEW
06 (--) 127,212 (---), [97/527], Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimension (Toei) NEW
07 (03) 82,805 (-60%), [200/636], Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK5
08 (04) 63,083 (-63%), [208/448], Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK5
09 (--) 56,209 (---), [91/415], The Fifth Wave (Sony) NEW
10 (07) 45,285 (-49%), [193/368], Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK6
11 (06) 41,350 (-55%), [202/321], The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) WK6
12 (--) 35,837 (---), [47/220], I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee (Aniplex) NEW
13 (05) 33,466 (-66%), [198/270], Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK8
14 (08) 32,832 (-61%), [81/265], Spotlight (Long Ride) WK2
15 (09) 32,625 (-56%), [182/244], Suspicious Woman (Shochiku) WK4
16 (12) 30,304 (-63%), [197/207], The Summit of the Gods (Toho) WK7
17 (11) 27,531 (-49%), [186/199], Kamen Rider 1 (Toei) WK5
18 (--) 26,088 (---), [29/150], Sound! Euphonium (Shochiku) NEW
19 (16) 20,295 (-41%), [46/152], Thomas & Friends: Sodor’s Legend of the Lost Treasure (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK3
20 (15) 15,215 (-57%), [52/120], Room (Gaga) WK3
21 (14) 11,358 (-71%), [80/81], What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku) WK7
22 (18) 11,059 (-48%), [53/64], PriPara Everyone's Longing Let's Go PriPari (Avex Pictures) WK7
23 (17) 10,501 (-59%), [25/126], Kansai Johnnys' Jr. no Mezase ♪ Dream (Shochiku) WK2
24 (13) 10,012 (-76%), [65/73], Precure All Stars: Sung by Everyone♪ Miracle Magic! (Toei) WK6
25 (10) 7,427 (-93%), [58/63], The Good Dinosaur (Disney) WK7

Note: Some theaters are still closed due to last week's earthquakes, so this week's listing above represents ~60% of the overall market instead of the usual ~67%.

We should be in store for another strong weekend, and this weekend's holds will be very important for every holdover. Golden Week begins next weekend, and with it comes many notable wide openers that will result in severe theater/screen cuts for most holdovers.

>Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare will likely repeat atop the box office this weekend. It can experience the largest second weekend decline in the series, even up to 50%, and it's still probably going to come in first place due to its enormous opening last weekend. I doubt it'll see a significant decline, too, since its opening was very slightly deflated due to the quakes, and having exceeded 50% capacity last weekend anyway, there'll still be a lot of demand to see it this weekend. I expect a second weekend around ¥700-750 million ($6-7 million).

>Zootopia is probably going to settle for a second place debut, unless it really, really breaks out, but that'd require an opening above Big Hero 6 and likely Frozen, too, if it's to challenge Conan; the latter being quite unlikely. Still, look for a strong opening weekend that could exceed ¥500 million ($4.5 million+), and with Golden Week coming up, great legs are sure to follow.

>I haven't looked into how I Am a Hero or The Revenant may perform this weekend, but their counts aren't too impressive, or exciting. For now, I'd expect something around ¥200/250 million for both films this weekend.

>Also, look for Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions to perform very well this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised by a Top 5, or the potential at a Top 3, debut. It's actually opening on Friday, though, so some demand will be burned off, but its advance ticket sales from last December were huge, as are its current pre-sales for the weekend frame.

>Sony is dumping The Fifth Wave, which honestly surprises me. Sony usually gives just about anything they distribute a reasonable release, even if they're destined to under-perform. I highly doubt this one will crack the Top 10.

[cannastop]

@Cynosure

Will Zootopia add screens next week?

[cannastop]

Oh, so the seats number is just about 65% of the actual number of available seats for the movie?

 

Sorry for being a noob.

Edited April 22, 2016 by cannastop

[Cynosure]

A few screens will be added as theaters affected by the earthquake continue to reopen in upcoming days/weeks but beyond that I suppose it will depend on its opening weekend performance and how the holdovers perform.

 

And yes, all available numbers on that link throughout the weekend will represent around two-thirds of the market.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Cynosure

[cannastop]

delete.

Edited April 22, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

I was wondering how Conan managed to sell out 90% of its cinema seats. Thanks for the clarification.

[Cynosure]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Is the seats number is just about 65% of the actual number of available seats for the movie?

 

Yes. Although it can vary a bit for each movie depending on the screens and seats allocated to them by the other distribution companies not represented in the figures provided on that website.

[cannastop]

Hmm. Looks like Zootopia's facing a few challenges in Japan.

Still, it's going to be pretty big, especially considering the holidays.

[cannastop]

BTW, it looks like The Revenant is kicking ass.

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

[cannastop]

I've noticed that a lot of press is calling the current release of Zootopia a "roadshow".

 

2016年4月23日（土）ロードショー 公式ホームページ

[cannastop]

Looks like the Japanese audience adores Zootopia.
 
http://movies.yahoo.co.jp/movie/354239/
 
The current reviews have watched previews.

[Murgatroyd]

11 hours ago, cannastop said:

I've noticed that a lot of press is calling the current release of Zootopia a "roadshow".

 

2016年4月23日（土）ロードショー 公式ホームページ

 

That is standard Japanese terminology for any movie release. It has no particular significance.

[cannastop]

46 minutes ago, Murgatroyd said:

 

That is standard Japanese terminology for any movie release. It has no particular significance.

Ah, thanks. That's why I included the Japanese text.

[Cynosure]

The link has new numbers : 28,094 for Zootopia and 27,572 for Conan. Those are probably pre-sales.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Cynosure

[edroger3]

Looking at the usual location on Toho cinemas it seems that Zootopia presales aren't so strong, there are few screens with 50%+ tickets sold and zero soldout. However this couldn't be a good indicator cause the great numeber of showing (but almost all in small screens) and the competition with the 2nd weekend of  Conan. I think a 400/500MYen OW, then huge weekdays and drops near to zero in next weekends with a final multiplier around 15x (like BH6) for a total between 7 and 8 BYen. We'll see.

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

Looking at the usual location on Toho cinemas it seems that Zootopia presales aren't so strong, there are few screens with 50%+ tickets sold and zero soldout. However this couldn't be a good indicator cause the great numeber of showing (but almost all in small screens) and the competition with the 2nd weekend of  Conan. I think a 400/500MYen OW, then huge weekdays and drops near to zero in next weekends with a final multiplier around 15x (like BH6) for a total between 7 and 8 BYen. We'll see.

What about walk-ups? Aren't there people who buy their tickets 30 minutes before the show?

 

And a multiplier of 20 isn't out of the question, in my opinion. Yes, that is near Frozen's multiplier.

Edited April 22, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

The link has new numbers : 28,094 for Zootopia and 27,572 for Conan. Those are probably pre-sales.

Honestly, it kind of surprises me, seeing how everyone said Conan was going to be #1 this time around.

[Cynosure]

Just now, cannastop said:

Honestly, it kind of surprises me, seeing how everyone said Conan was going to be #1 this time around.

 

It's Zootopia's OW vs Conan's 2nd weekend. Pre-sales tend to make a bigger part of the overall sales on OW.