JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

So Zootopia is finally out in Japan huh? It should be fun tracking how it does there.

Damn straight! I didn't even know about all of the cool shit you can find out about the box office in Japan.

[Cynosure]

11 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market :

 

Zootopia : 18,107

Conan : 19,648

[Mojoguy]

Corpse explained multipliers in Japan (Posted when Frozen first came out there):

It would have to be frontloaded as hell to not reach $50 million, and the term frontloaded doesn't really exist in Japan. There is usually no more than 5 or so wide-releases a year that get multipliers under 5. Kamen Rider are some of the most frontloaded films, and even they get over 4 and sometimes 5.

Multiplier breakdown:

Less than 3: I've never seen a film have less than this, so I don't believe it's doable...

Less than 5: Usually reserved for films with very niche appeal or very poorly received films released in January, February, June, or October (the four weakest months of the year).

5-7: The norm. The vast majority of releases end up in this range. Even sequels and yearly installments such as Detective Conan or Pokemon have no problem getting here. Films with bad reviews can sometimes pull of a 5, too.

8-10: Films that earn a multiplier in this range usually have holiday support and are released during robust times of the year. Great reviews and WOM also play a big role here. Also, films that play nearly exclusively to the senior demo generally have no problems ending up here.

10+: Wide-scale appeal, plays well with the 40+ audience (the biggest demo in Japan), and has great reviews. A multiplier of this level almost always requires a release date around Obon (July) or New Year (December) to go this high, too, though there are a few exceptions.

15+: Everything that a 10+ film has, but also includes repeat viewings. The Japanese rarely go to the movies, much less to see the same film two or more times (TV remains very popular in Japan). But when they do, big things happen. Fewer than 10 films have earned a 15+ multiplier in the past 15 years, and only one was released outside of July and December.

[Cynosure]

8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

15+: Everything that a 10+ film has, but also includes repeat viewings. The Japanese rarely go to the movies, much less to see the same film two or more times (TV remains very popular in Japan). But when they do, big things happen. Fewer than 10 films have earned a 15+ multiplier in the past 15 years, and only one was released outside of July and December.

 

Just a reminder to the fans here how exceptional a 15 multiplier would be for Zootopia.

[cannastop]

*1　*22812　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の… (Detective Conan)

*2　*22207　ズートピア (Zootopia)

 

Really neck and neck.

[Cynosure]

12 pm (local time) - 2/3 of the market :

 

Zootopia : 28,062

Conan : 30,662

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, Cynosure said:

 

Just a reminder to the fans here how exceptional a 15 multiplier would be for Zootopia.

 

Doesn't it have the highest multipliers for an animated feature in both China and South Korea? It seems that if any movie could be the second one after Frozen it would be this one.

 

Edit: Actually, aren't there at least two such movies? Unless Box Office Mojo is wrong, both Tangled and Frozen have 15+ multipliers, and both were released in March. Add to that Big Hero 6's 15.29 multiplier (even if it was released in December), and you have three of the last four Disney animations hitting the mark. In that light, Zootopia reaching it doesn't look all that exceptional.

Edited April 23, 2016 by LMAbacus

[POTUS 2020]

43 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

Doesn't it have the highest multipliers for an animated feature in both China and South Korea? It seems that if any movie could be the second one after Frozen it would be this one.

 

Edit: Actually, aren't there at least two such movies? Unless Box Office Mojo is wrong, both Tangled and Frozen have 15+ multipliers, and both were released in March. Add to that Big Hero 6's 15.29 multiplier (even if it was released in December), and you have three of the last four Disney animations hitting the mark. In that light, Zootopia reaching it doesn't look all that exceptional.

That was a copy from corpse before frozen opened

 

So the admissions number is now representing 62.5%~ of the market now?

That number seems low for this hour.

Are we looking at the top right column still or the Aeon number to the middle right?

So for a $5m/¥555m weekend it needs 2.3m today@ $13 per ticket. 

177,000 total admissions. 

110,500 admissions reported on mimorim(62.5%)

Edited April 23, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners) [1998-]

01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014)
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
05. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008)
06. 19.96 - Les Miserabes (Dec., 2012)
07. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
08. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013)
09. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
10. 15.26 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014) [Final]
11. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
12. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
13. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
14. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
15. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
16. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
17. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
18. 13.64 - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
19. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
20. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
21. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013)
22. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013)
23. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
24. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
25. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)

[Mojoguy]

Corpse


Walt Disney Picture's Top Grossing Films (1980-)

01. ¥25.48 billion ($249.6 million) / 20.03 million - Frozen (2014) #3 All-Time
02. ¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) / 7.30 million - Alice in Wonderland (2010) #18 All-Time
03. ¥11.58 billion ($96.0 million) / 7.45 million - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) [Final] #19 All-Time
04. ¥11.00 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003) #20 All-Time
05. ¥10.90 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007) #24 All-Time
06. ¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) / 7.20 million - Toy Story 3 (2010) #25 All-Time
07. ¥10.02 billion ($82.3 million) / 7.75 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) #29 All-Time
08. ¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) / 7.60 million - Monsters, Inc. (2002) #38 All-Time
09. ¥9.18 billion ($77.7 million) / 7.22 million - Big Hero 6 (2014) #42 All-Time
10. ¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) / 7.05 million - Monsters University (2013) #47 All-Time
11. ¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) / 5.86 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) #48 All-Time
12. ¥6.86 billion ($56.4 million) / 5.60 million - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2006) #80 All-Time
13. ¥6.80 billion ($60.3 million) / 5.10 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003) #82 All-Time
14. ¥6.54 billion ($63.5 million) / 4.98 million - Maleficent (2014) #86 All-Time
15. ¥5.73 billion ($46.6 million) / 4.46 million - Cinderella (2015)
16. ¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million) / 4.40 million - The Incredibles (2004)
17. ¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) / 3.80 million - Up (2009)
18. ¥4.90 billion ($40.2 million) / 3.95 million - Dinosaur (2001)
19. ¥4.25 billion ($37.2 million) / 3.50 million - Aladdin (1993)
20. ¥4.04 billion ($33.6 million) / 3.40 million - Inside Out (2015)
21. ¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) / 3.20 million - Wall-E (2008)

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

That was a copy from corpse before frozen opened

 

So the admissions number is now representing 62.5%~ of the market now?

That number seems low for this hour.

Are we looking at the top right column still or the Aeon number to the middle right?

So for a $5m/¥555m weekend it needs 2.3m today@ $13 per ticket. 

177,000 total admissions. 

110,500 admissions reported on mimorim(62.5%)

The percent is low because some theaters are closed due to an Earthquake on the island of Kyushu.

[cannastop]

*1　*76912　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の… (Detective Conan)

*2　*58876　ズートピア (Zootopia)

 

Looks like Detective Conan is pulling out ahead. Unless Zootopia really surprises on Sunday, Conan will win.

[Olive]

Zootopia Saturday runs slightly ahead of inside out, so 500M OW seems reasonable.

[23IsEverywhere]

So about a 4.4-4.5m usd ow.  How was the WOM of Inside Out in Japan?

[Olive]

1 minute ago, 23IsEverywhere said:

So about a 4.4-4.5m usd ow.  How was the WOM of Inside Out in Japan?

Wom was not as great as elsewhere, but it was released in Summer so legs were good.

[Melvin Frohike]

22 hours ago, cannastop said:

And a multiplier of 20 isn't out of the question, in my opinion. Yes, that is near Frozen's multiplier.

 

If you think it can get near Frozen's multiplier, then that would be 33.34, which would take Zootopia to a final gross near $150M, given the way things are looking now.  Since 1998 only five movies (that grossed ¥1B or more) have had multipliers higher than 20, so it would be a historic run.

 

 

16 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

Edit: Actually, aren't there at least two such movies? Unless Box Office Mojo is wrong, both Tangled and Frozen have 15+ multipliers, and both were released in March. Add to that Big Hero 6's 15.29 multiplier (even if it was released in December), and you have three of the last four Disney animations hitting the mark. In that light, Zootopia reaching it doesn't look all that exceptional.

 

It sure seems that Tangled had a multiplier of around 17.6, although it should be noted that when a movie opens so small it is easier for it to have an outsized multiplier.  In this case, the movie opened the day after the Tōhoku earthquake struck and on the same day as the start of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, so its opening was presumably significantly smaller than it otherwise would have been, thereby inflating its multiplier.  But even so, I get that WDAS movies tend to be very leggy (worldwide, including Japan and NA), and that even a 15+ multiplier in Japan is not as unlikely for them as it is for movies in general, so it's a possibility that I wouldn't immediately rule out.

 

 

15 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Corpse

Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners) [1998-]

 

I wonder why Tangled isn't included on this list.

Edited April 23, 2016 by Melvin Frohike

[Jack]

It's only the first day for Zoo. WOM hasn't even kicked in yet. Isn't this movie about prejudice? Won't be surprised if it reaches 20x multiplier.

[Agafin]

People expecting Zootopia to have a multiplier of 15+ or more are (most likely) going to be disappointed imo. It has an outside chance of having such a multiplier especially with the great reception so far but you guys have to remember that a multiplier of 15 in Japan is probably about as rare as a multiplier of 5.5 or 6+ in the US so people throwing it around like it's the bare minimum this will get seem overly optmistic. Zootopia is looking to end with a multi of about 4.5 domestically which is great of course but expecting Japan to do 15+ would mean expecting Japan to overperform relative to DOM. That's unlikely imo. After the golden week, Zootopia will have to make almost all of its money on weekends since it'll have no summer weekdays, nor spring break, nor New Year's holidays, or really, anything that can boost its weekdays. Getting such a huge multiplier without strong weekday support is really hard (Frozen did it, but well, that's frozen). Also, using South Korea or China to gauge how a movie will perform in Japan is useless. Japan is probably closer in its tastes to Europe than it is to the rest of Asia. Superhero movies are a proof of that.

 

I personally think that with a 550m yen opening weekend, the goal should be 6b yen. Obviously, the more it makes, the better.

[LMAbacus]

2 hours ago, Agafin said:

Japan is probably closer in its tastes to Europe than it is to the rest of Asia. Superhero movies are a proof of that.

 

And I can point to the Ice Age movies as evidence that they can be nothing like Europe. Those movies absolutely dominated the European markets while in Japan they did worse and worse until the last one wasn't even given a release.

[Cynosure]

Foreign animated sequels almost always follow that trajectory in Japan  (Ice Age, Kung Fu Panda and Shrek come to mind). They have their own animated sequels every year (Conan, Doraemon, Pokemon, Shin-chan etc.) so they'll prefer original material when it comes to animated foreign movies. Only exceptions are sequels which are released far and away from each other (Monsters University in 2013 and probably Finding Dory this year).

Edited April 23, 2016 by Cynosure