JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Cynosure said:

 

It's Zootopia's OW vs Conan's 2nd weekend. Pre-sales tend to make a bigger part of the overall sales on OW.

Yes, but Zootopia's Word of Mouth is most likely going to be humongous. Just like it was in most markets.

[Arlo245]

I think Zoo could increase from Saturday to Sunday like it did in China! $5-6 million is where I realisticly expect it to end up opening weekend but I honestly think it can push $6-6.5 million depending on the effect of WOM and walk-ups. And I think a 10x multiplier is all but guaranteed and 15x likely with Golden Week up ahead and phenomenal WOM. Like cannastop mentioned, 20x is possible as well. This puts the range at $50-130 million for Zootopia, with a $90 million average. I have a strong feeling $1 billion WW will happen! 

Edited April 22, 2016 by Arlo245

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Arlo245 said:

I think Zoo could increase from Saturday to Sunday like it did in China! $5-6 million is where I realisticly expect it to end up but I honestly think it can push $6-6.5 million depending on the effect of WOM and walk-ups. And I think a 10x multiplier is all but guaranteed and 15x likely with Golden Week up ahead and phenomenal WOM. Like cannastop, 20x is possible as well. This puts the range at $50-130 million for Zootopia, with a $90 million average. I have a strong feeling $1 billion WW will happen! 

Well, increasing from Saturday to Sunday might not be rare in a lot of markets. Also, the weekend figures from Japan only count those two days, so that's why the multipliers are huge.

[Cynosure]

Almost all movies increase from saturday to sunday in Japan.  Sunday is the biggest day of the week in the country.

[Finnick]

Just now, cannastop said:

Well, increasing from Saturday to Sunday might not be rare in a lot of markets. Also, the weekend figures from Japan only count those two days, so that's why the multipliers are huge.

These ZOO numbers are going to kill you. 1B is locked but for not soon. You might have to wait for more six weeks.  Keep calm!!! it will happen I guarantee you.

[Arlo245]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well, increasing from Saturday to Sunday might not be rare in a lot of markets. Also, the weekend figures from Japan only count those two days, so that's why the multipliers are huge.

Very true. But still, a 15x multiplier is still hard to achieve in the market but I am almost certain Zootopia can do it.

Edited April 22, 2016 by Arlo245

[Arlo245]

*deleted*

Edited April 22, 2016 by Arlo245

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, leatherjacket said:

These ZOO numbers are going to kill you. 1B is locked but for not soon. You might have to wait for more six weeks.  Keep calm!!! it will happen I guarantee you.

Hmm. Not sure what you're implying.

 

I know that Zootopia's initial numbers might not be astounding, considering all of the obstacles it has right now.

[Finnick]

Just now, cannastop said:

Hmm. Not sure what you're implying.

 

I know that Zootopia's initial numbers might not be astounding, considering all of the obstacles it has right now.

I am not implying, your comments about ZOO are implying.

Zoo initial numbers not astounding!!!! are you kidding me. The optimistic prognostic for this movie was a 500M WW. Now it has a shot to 1B. A Number BvS will dream of all his life. LOL

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, leatherjacket said:

I am not implying, your comments about ZOO are implying.

Zoo initial numbers not astounding!!!! are you kidding me. The optimistic prognostic for this movie was a 500M WW. Now it has a shot to 1B. A Number BvS will dream of all his life. LOL

Oh, OK.

 

I'm saying that Zootopia's initial numbers in Japan might not be astounding, partially due to an earthquake on the island of Kyushu, and unexpectedly strong competition from Detective Conan.

 

Also, I'm pretty much the biggest Zootopia fanboy here.

[Finnick]

Just now, cannastop said:

Oh, OK.

 

I'm saying that Zootopia's initial numbers in Japan might not be astounding, partially due to an earthquake on the island of Kyushu, and unexpectedly strong competition from Detective Conan.

 

Also, I'm pretty much the biggest Zootopia fanboy here.

Sounds fair, ZOO will be the 26th movie to enter the 1B club after CA.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, leatherjacket said:

Sounds fair, ZOO will be the 26th movie to enter the 1B club after CA.

When you said the numbers would "kill me", I didn't know if you meant that it would disappoint me or impress me.

[Finnick]

Just now, cannastop said:

When you said the numbers would "kill me", I didn't know if you meant that it would disappoint me or impress me.

I meant all the waiting and comments are killing you literally. Well, a man has to die trying to achieve his dreams. lol

[Arlo245]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Oh, OK.

 

I'm saying that Zootopia's initial numbers in Japan might not be astounding, partially due to an earthquake on the island of Kyushu, and unexpectedly strong competition from Detective Conan.

 

Also, I'm pretty much the biggest Zootopia fanboy here.

I'm a pretty big fanboy.  but who knows who's the bigger one. I've seen the movie 14 times in theaters and I never got bored every time. But that shouldn't qualify me as a bigger fanboy. There are many factors really but I'd being veering off-topic if I continue 

[Cynosure]

10 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market

 

Zootopia : 10,220

Conan : 11,796

[cannastop]

24 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

10 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market

 

Zootopia : 10,220

Conan : 11,796

Wow, they're neck and neck.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C) 2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

 

Weekend Forecast (04/23-24)/2016年04月23日-2016年04月24日
01 (01) ¥665,000,000 ($6.0 million), -45%, ¥2,400,000,000 ($21.8 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK2
02 (--) ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), 0, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), Zootopia (Disney) NEW
03 (02) ¥256,000,000 ($2.3 million), -36%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.6 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK2
04 (--) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), The Revenant (Fox) NEW
05 (--) ¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) NEW
06 (--) ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($1.8 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) NEW
07 (03) ¥88,000,000 ($790,000), -38%, ¥3,250,000,000 ($29.1 million), Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK5
08 (07) ¥53,000,000 ($470,000), -20%, ¥1,330,000,000 ($12.2 million), Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK6
09 (04) ¥50,000,000 ($450,000), -50%, ¥1,790,000,000 ($16.0 million), Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK5
10 (06) ¥42,000,000 ($380,000), -45%, ¥3,930,000,000 ($35.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK8

>Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare's pre-sales for the day are way down compared to last weekend, but not unexpectedly considering how high it opened. Its morning/afternoon ticket sales are outpacing Zootopia's just slightly, but it's more likely to play better in the evening/night than it, so a second weekend atop the box office is looking pretty good.

>Zootopia is in store for a great debut, even if it may settle for second place. Its pre-sales are just a little behind Big Hero 6's, and Cinderella's (which opened this weekend last year). So, it's likely to do over 400,000 admissions this weekend; resulting in a debut probably over ¥500 million. I'll keep an eye on how it compares to those two films as the day progresses.

Then from there, we have a very contested battle to see which films can make the Top 5.

>The Revenant, based on Friday's performance and today's pre-sales, should clear the ¥200 million mark this weekend, while I Am a Hero might as well, though it's looking like it could narrowly miss the mark.

>Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions didn't actually open on Friday as I mentioned yesterday (that was The Revenant), so its weekend isn't going to be deflated due to burned off demand. Its pre-sales are very strong; morning/afternoon ticket sales are also good; it's likely to land a very successful debut this weekend. It's difficult to predict a figure here, though, considering its small screen count, and what's likely an unpredictable avg. ticket price. I think it'll make the Top 5.

[cannastop]

Zootopia still has half of Saturday and all of Sunday to shake things up.

[Arlo245]

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Zootopia still has half of Saturday and all of Sunday to shake things up.

I'm excited! I've been waiting for this weekend for awhile! 

[Mojoguy]

So Zootopia is finally out in Japan huh? It should be fun tracking how it does there.