JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Arlo245]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11427.html

 

With 66,007 sampled admissions at 14:00, this is a 23.9% increase from last week for Zootopia.

Do you know how it compares to its opening Sunday?

[LMAbacus]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11427.html

 

With 66,007 sampled admissions at 14:00, this is a 23.9% increase from last week for Zootopia.

 

It's also only a 3% drop from its first Sunday, and its average ticket price has slightly gone up since then. Dead-on estimate of $4.0 million by Corpse.

[cannastop]

Looks like 世界から猫が消えたなら, or If Cats Disappeared, is totally flopping this weekend.

[Jason]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

And yet again, Zootopia beat expectations. I wonder if Corpse saw it coming.

 

From Corpse:

Weekend Forecast (05/14-15)/2016年05月14日-2016年05月15日
01 (01) ¥430,000,000 ($4.0 million), +11%, ¥3,650,000,000 ($34.3 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK4

~snip~

>Zootopia, in particular, is in spectacular shape. It held very well last week over the post-Golden Week weekend to earn its first #1 ranking (in its third weekend), and is looking to repeat this weekend. 

And I'm nearly 100% certain it's going to experience a weekend increase. Audiences are really, really taking advantage of the discount day to see this one. Last year, Cinderella only dropped 4% this weekend (without any assistance), so an increase does look almost assured for Zootopia.

 

Does that count or did you mean Corpse seeing it before this weekend's prediction?

[Foul01]

as of 14:35 local time in Japan,

Zootopia has more tickets sold than the sum its closest three competitors, which includes Conan and two new movies

 

the legs are looking good on Zootopia now.

 

based of previous patterns (where 60% of sales happened before 14:30), Zootopia will likely sell 110K~120K tickets today... around $2.2M~$2.4M
this will make the weekend gross around $4.0M ~ $4.2M.... Corpse is pretty spot on on prediction this time

 

 

Edited May 15, 2016 by Foul01

[a2k]

So looks like Zoo's gonna get that 14x multiplier from Japan to make it 1b ww?

[cannastop]

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11433.html

 

Zootopia is completely dominating the competition. At 19:00, it had a 29% gain over last week's number.

[cannastop]

Alright, it's late enough in the day, and there usually aren't midnight showings on Sunday.

 

　*1　113467　ズートピア(Zootopia)

　*2　*40562　殿、利息でござる！(Tono, risoku de gozaru)

　*3　*39061　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…(Detective Conan 2016)

　*4　*37212　世界から猫が消えたなら (If Cats Disappeared)

 

Zootopia's Sunday number is almost exactly what it was on its opening weekend.

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

[edroger3]

Edited May 15, 2016 by edroger3

[Quigley]

Assuming there were no discounts/holidays or any other factor that could have influenced this increase, the Sunday number is very reassuring that the film's remaining run will have strong legs. I think $50M is pretty much a forgone conclusion at this point? What do you guys think? What does the competition look like from now on?

Edited May 15, 2016 by Quigley

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Assuming there were no discounts/holidays or any other factor that could have influenced this increase, the Sunday number is very reassuring that the film's remaining run will have strong legs. I think $50M is pretty much a forgone conclusion at this point? What do you guys think? What does the competition look like from now on?

I don't think there's really any competition until July, when Alice 2 opens.

And even that is questionable as competition.

 

On a side note, it will take advantage of the 1st of the month discount and open on a Friday rather than a Saturday.

[cannastop]

@edroger3

 

Isn't Sunday also an increase from last week? Shouldn't it be in black?

[Foul01]

Sunday final number 113,467
assuming coverage to be 63%, exchange 108, ticket price 1,350 yen: the revenue today is $2.25M

Zootopia Box Office this weekend in Japan is around $4.05M... around a 12% growth from last weekend

 

Cumulative gross in Japan so far is around $33.9M... which is almost the same as Cinderella after its 4th weekend ($33.5M)

 

However, unlike Cinderella, Zootopia is much less front heavy when it comes to box office in Japan.

Zootopia actually had a $2.6M deficit against Cinderella after the 2nd weekend, now it is leading by $0.4M

Zootopia is on an increasing trend after the 4th weekend whereas Cinderella was decreasing.

Cinderella was also nowhere near as dominating as Zootopia in its 4th weekend.

Zootopia's gross today is almost equivalent to the sum of its next three competitors, the sum of the next two competitors after Cinderella is already 11% higher than Cinderella.

 

All signs point to Zootopia beating Cinderella in its final run.

Considering Cinderella ended with $47M, Zootopia may well end with $55M or higher. 

 

Seeing as Domestic is closing in on $338M and OS-Japan may add another $10M to end with $612M (last week OS-Japan gross was $7M), Japan only needs $50M

The chance for 1 Billion world wide gross is actually very very good now.

Edited May 15, 2016 by Foul01

[Arlo245]

I think it's supposed to be black. There's no minus sign attached to it so it's probably just an error. 

[Quigley]

30 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

Seeing as Domestic is closing in on $338M and OS-Japan may add another $10M to end with $612M (last week OS-Japan gross was $7M), Japan only needs $50M

The chance for 1 Billion world wide gross is actually very very good now.

 

Currently, it's at $604M from OS-Japan. It added $0.7M this weekend (may be revised closer to $1M), a drop from $2.2M the weekend before (presumably due to Angry Birds). It can really only make $3-4M more from OS-Japan, so a total $607-608M, and an additional $2-3M from Turkey, so $609-611M. Unless Turkey breaks out, $612M is impossible.

[Foul01]

8 minutes ago, Quigley said:

 

Currently, it's at $604M from OS-Japan. It added $0.7M this weekend (may be revised closer to $1M), a drop from $2.2M the weekend before (presumably due to Angry Birds). It can really only make $3-4M more from OS-Japan, so a total $607-608M, and an additional $2-3M from Turkey, so $609-611M. Unless Turkey breaks out, $612M is impossible.

 

Huh, BoxOfficeMojo just updated their numbers.

I could have sworn when I started typing my last post it was still until May 9, 2016

 

According to BoxOfficeMojo, this number is supposedly until May 15, which is a very strange time to update considering the time zones of many countries have still not passed this day yet. This is quite an early estimation.

 

OS-Japan last week was $7M, so to see it drop to $2M this week is very surprising.

 

I have a feeling the numbers from BoxOfficeMojo will be revised to be higher very soon.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Foul01 said:

 

Huh, BoxOfficeMojo just updated their numbers.

I could have sworn when I started typing my last post it was still until May 9, 2016

 

According to BoxOfficeMojo, this number is supposedly until May 15, which is a very strange time to update considering the time zones of many countries have still not passed this day yet. This is quite an early estimation.

 

OS-Japan last week was $7M, so to see it drop to $2M this week is very surprising.

 

I have a feeling the numbers from BoxOfficeMojo will be revised to be higher very soon.

It's not strange. Today is Sunday, the end of the weekend.

[Foul01]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's not strange. Today is Sunday, the end of the weekend.

 

For many countries, it's still Sunday. 

Yet BoxOfficeMojo already has the total foreign gross until Sunday already. 

 

Kind of makes you wonder what the basis of the estimation is... Japan just ended Sunday, did BoxOfficeMojo even receive Japan's gross report yet?

That's why I have a feeling the numbers will be revised to be higher soon.

 

I think last week, BoxOfficeMojo waited until Monday or Tuesday to update the foreign gross of the previous week.

The update this week is very early in comparison

[cannastop]

Just now, Foul01 said:

 

For many countries, it's still Sunday. 

Yet BoxOfficeMojo already has the total foreign gross until Sunday already. 

 

Kind of makes you wonder what the basis of the estimation is... Japan just ended Sunday, did BoxOfficeMojo even receive Japan's gross report yet?

That's why I have a feeling the numbers will be revised to be higher soon.

 

I think last week, BoxOfficeMojo waited until Monday or Tuesday to update the foreign gross of the previous week.

The update this week is very early in comparison

Even if it's Sunday, you can have a reasonable estimate of the numbers. Mojo even has a number for Sunday in the USA+Canada!

[Foul01]

15 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Even if it's Sunday, you can have a reasonable estimate of the numbers. Mojo even has a number for Sunday in the USA+Canada!

 and BoxOfficeMojo has had to revise their estimation to be higher for the last few weeks.

(haven't seen them revise to be lower before)
 

I am like 90% sure this estimation will be revised to be higher

 

so until Tuesday, I am going to be a little suspicious about this foreign total gross.

Edited May 15, 2016 by Foul01