Wednesday numbers: Guru Dictator: 4.1 Avengers: 6.3

[doublejack]

Yes, they do hope to just make their money back. Can you tell me how many films make a profit at the theater? Look into it and you'll actually see that not many do. If you really take the 2-1 ratio, then every film has to double their budget to make it back. Not many films do that domestically, they need the international markets to do so. And beyond that, there are so many other revenue streams after it leaves theaters.There's no chance the studio was expecting Borat numbers

If studios went around making movies just hoping to get their money back, they would quickly go bankrupt. One can't run a business that way. Get burned a few times, then investers disappear, and then it's game over because you're getting bills you don't have the cash to pay. I'm aware that many movies don't fully recoup their budget (including marketing and distribution costs) at the box office. Many films do eventually turn a profit though, thanks to secondary revenue streams (DVD/streaming and television, etc).Maybe expecting Borat numbers out of Dictator is a bit strong, but they had to be hoping for it, and thinking it was possible. Instead they're probably getting another Bruno. Do you honestly believe they'll be happy with that? Or even content? I seriously doubt it.I think international box office helps a lot less than many believe, too. This article does a good job of illustrating exactly why - http://www.scribd.co...dios-make-money Edited May 17, 2012 by doublejack

[stuart360]

If studios went around making movies just hoping to get their money back, they would quickly go bankrupt. One can't run a business that way. Get burned a few times, then investers disappear, and then it's game over because you're getting bills you don't have the cash to pay. I'm aware that many movies don't fully recoup their budget (including marketing and distribution costs) at the box office. Many films do eventually turn a profit though, thanks to secondary revenue streams (DVD/streaming and television, etc).Maybe expecting Borat numbers out of Dictator is a bit strong, but they had to be hoping for it, and thinking it was possible. Instead they're probably getting another Bruno. Do you honestly believe they'll be happy with that? Or even content? I seriously doubt it.I think international box office helps a lot less than many believe, too. This article does a good job of illustrating exactly why - http://www.scribd.co...dios-make-money

Studios make a lot of money from tv rights, dvd/blu-ray sales and rentals etc, studio execs have said the same themselves, why do you think we sometimes get sequels to fims that have underperformed and their gross ahs only matched their budget?.

[code65536]

So... in light of all the other TC drops, THG's upcoming loss of 467 now looks stunningly beautiful. It's got a higher TC than films released 5 weeks after it--the widest release of any pre-Avengers film.

Edited May 17, 2012 by Crake

[doublejack]

Studios make a lot of money from tv rights, dvd/blu-ray sales and rentals etc, studio execs have said the same themselves, why do you think we sometimes get sequels to fims that have underperformed and their gross ahs only matched their budget?.

I understand completely. However, I don't think some are taking the whole picture into consideration.Borat's budget was a reported 18M. Bruno's is estimated to be 40M. Now Dictator's is upwards of 60M. It is much easier to take a bit of a gamble on a low budget project, since the risk is low. When the costs escalate, though, executives are going to think twice. It's why Marvel won't say for sure they're willing to make another stand alone Hulk movie.SBC's projects are increasing in cost while trending toward a diminishing return at the box office. That can't... and won't, persist. That's all I'm saying. If Dictator disappoints (and by that I mean ends up with numbers comparable to Bruno) he'll have a very short leash going forward. He won't be given umpteen chances to produce another hit like Borat.

[ecstasy]

THG is such a beast, always has one of the day's best holds :wub:And still top 5 after 55 days!

Truth.

[fishstick]

Shouldn`t Victoria Day (Canadian holiday) help Sunday hold a bit and ifnlate Monday?

[druv10]

Shouldn`t Victoria Day (Canadian holiday) help Sunday hold a bit and ifnlate Monday?

Yes.

[baumer]

See, you'd think the Canadian holiday would make a good hold Sunday but according to numbers, it does not really have much of an effect on it...it looks like we're too busy doing other things. However the Monday has a good hold, a very good hold.Thor Sunday: http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2011-05-22&track=thor.htmIron Man 2: http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2010-05-23&track=ironman2.htmStar Trek: http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2009-05-17&track=startrek11.htm&p=.htmSo don't expect any great Sunday numbers, but Monday is about 8-10% better.

[druv10]

See, you'd think the Canadian holiday would make a good hold Sunday but according to numbers, it does not really have much of an effect on it...it looks like we're too busy doing other things. However the Monday has a good hold, a very good hold.Thor Sunday: http://boxofficemojo...&track=thor.htmIron Man 2: http://boxofficemojo...ck=ironman2.htmStar Trek: http://boxofficemojo...ek11.htm&p=.htmSo don't expect any great Sunday numbers, but Monday is about 8-10% better.

Sunday has been better for TA over other Marvel May openers. It will most likely hold around 27-28% like it has done the previous Sunday.

[doublejack]

Sunday has been better for TA over other Marvel May openers. It will most likely hold around 27-28% like it has done the previous Sunday.

This is easily explained by the fact that of the Marvel May openers, TA is BY FAR the most family friendly. It doesn't have Stark womanizing, and is much easier for kids to comprehend and relate to than Thor.

[baumer]

Sunday has been better for TA over other Marvel May openers. It will most likely hold around 27-28% like it has done the previous Sunday.

And I agree with that. But that doesn't mean its going to have a drop of 23% on Sunday just because of the Canadian Holiday. But Monday will see a smaller drop than usual.

[stuart360]

This is easily explained by the fact that of the Marvel May openers, TA is BY FAR the most family friendly. It doesn't have Stark womanizing, and is much easier for kids to comprehend and relate to than Thor.

Is that why you think its doing so much better than the other films?. The film for me is the best one out of all the Avenger movies but it still suprises me how well its doing compared to the others. Its like when you get someone who doesn't understand box office and they will say something like "well Iron Man made 300mil and Thor and Cap and Hulk made like 150mil each so if you add them all together then The Avengers will make 750mil!", well obviously we know thats not how it works but in this case it will almost be correct!.

[druv10]

And I agree with that. But that doesn't mean its going to have a drop of 23% on Sunday just because of the Canadian Holiday. But Monday will see a smaller drop than usual.

Thanks, I was thinking about 24-25% drop for Sunday but with you posting no discernible difference on previous Marvel Sunday, it will hold normally.

[ZattMurdock]

Is that why you think its doing so much better than the other films?. The film for me is the best one out of all the Avenger movies but it still suprises me how well its doing compared to the others. Its like when you get someone who doesn't understand box office and they will say something like "well Iron Man made 300mil and Thor and Cap and Hulk made like 150mil each so if you add them all together then The Avengers will make 750mil!", well obviously we know thats not how it works but in this case it will almost be correct!.

Nah, it's taking the World by assault because it's a brilliant blockbuster summer movie like we don't have in decades, but even that would be an oversimplification. It's a culmination of all the Marvel Films with a flawless marketing. It's a perfect storm. I'm way more proud of Marvel Films than I've been with Marvel Comics for a quite long time. Seeing all these people falling in love with these characters is a treat, one thing I never thought it'd be possible.

Read here if you haven't already: 6 Reasons ‘The Avengers’ Is Crushing It At The Box Office

It's a really good analysis of The Avengers success.

[doctoru2]

Color me unsurprised. Hopefully this will be the last movie of this type SBC attempts. I know he's got fans, but the films are getting worse and worse.

My box of 64 crayons doesn't have a color named "unsurprised". But I do have a crayon sharpener! :OMG:As for "Dictator", I thought it might open below TA. However, I'd be surprised if the weekend also didn't see a bump.That "C" score though is very surprising. The trailers are amusing - I was even thinking of seeing it (I didn't find the trailers for SBC's other films amusing at all).

[doublejack]

Is that why you think its doing so much better than the other films?. The film for me is the best one out of all the Avenger movies but it still suprises me how well its doing compared to the others. Its like when you get someone who doesn't understand box office and they will say something like "well Iron Man made 300mil and Thor and Cap and Hulk made like 150mil each so if you add them all together then The Avengers will make 750mil!", well obviously we know thats not how it works but in this case it will almost be correct!.

Yes, I think this is a huge factor.This is anectodal - one showing at one theater, but I took my daughter to view TA on Friday last week for a prime time 2D showing... 8pm. My ticket was $10, hers was $6.50. The showing was a sellout, and no exaggeration the audience was at least 40% children. I'm probably underestimating there. It was like we were at an Ice Age or Madagascar showing. The audience was primarily families. The couple in the row in front of me had two boys, and they brought along almost a dozen other kids. When I went to the men's room, there was a father in there with his two sons - one had an Iron Man mask, the other a Hulk mask. Considering it was the second weekend I was pretty floored.It makes me wonder if Disney / Marvel made a mistake releasing this in May, instead of during the summer when the kids are all out of school. I also think that the attendance calculations are off, since this movie skews far younger than the other box office titans. TDK, Titanic and Avatar aren't even close to being this kid friendly. Edited May 17, 2012 by doublejack

[stuart360]

Yes, I think this is a huge factor.

This is anectodal - one showing at one theater, but I took my dauther to view TA on Friday last week for a prime time 2D showing... 8pm. My ticket was $10, hers was $6.50. The showing was a sellout, and no exaggeration the audience was at least 40% children. I'm probably underestimating there. It was like we were at an Ice Age or Madagascar showing. The audience was primarily families. The couple in the row in front of me had two boys, and they brought along almost a dozen other kids. When I went to the men's room, there was a father in there with his two sons - one had an Iron Man mask, the other a Hulk mask. Considering it was the second weekend I was pretty floored.

It makes me wonder if Disney / Marvel made a mistake releasing this in May, instead of during the summer when the kids are all out of school. I also think that the attendance calculations are off, since this movie skews far younger than the other box office titans. TDK, Titanic and Avatar aren't even close to being this kid friendly.

Which makes their success even more impressive really. Yeah i don't agree about releasing in the summer as it would have more competition plus whatever its missing out on weekdays now, its making it up on the weekends.

If kids are playing a big part in its success then i'm happy for it as it makes a change from 'x' cartoon making tons regardless of quality just because its a kids film.

[rockNrollaDIM]

I always thought you were against THG, hense your 'stupid numbers' sig.

Hahaha, no way! That was a quote from a Hollywood Reporter article referencing the tracking for the movie in the 2 weeks before its release... a box office analyst said the tracking points (awareness etc) was "Huge, stupid numbers"... and thus a legend was born.

[doublejack]

Which makes their success even more impressive really. Yeah i don't agree about releasing in the summer as it would have more competition plus whatever its missing out on weekdays now, its making it up on the weekends.

If kids are playing a big part in its success then i'm happy for it as it makes a change from 'x' cartoon making tons regardless of quality just because its a kids film.

Fewer kids means a smaller audience, but it also means more money per ticket sold. I don't think one is more impressive than the other, really. It's just two different ways to an end.

I can also see both sides to the summer vs. May debate. There is definitely less competition now than if the movie came out in late June or some time in July, and kids get out of school early enough for families to catch early evening showings (I saw a 4:50 showing get out and it was 3/4+ full and consisted of a lot of moms + kids, and entire families). Yet I think TA could have been a matinee monster, putting up weekday numbers like we've never seen.

Anyway, Star Wars was legendary for drawing in children back in the day, while also being a very entertaining movie for adults. That's the formula I feel TA has hit on better than any film in a very long time. It was so refreshing to have something that both my daughter and I were very enthusiastic about seeing.

[TLK]

C cinemascore is probably because his fans were expecting this movie to be similar to his previous two. This is more like a regular movie with real Hollywood actors and situations. This is actually bad news because he is not going to attract any new fans at this point.