baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Here is a sampling of non Pixar animated films released in the summer and their multipliers:Despicable Me: 256 mill off a 56 mill opening: 4.48Shrek 4: 238 off 70: 3.4Kung Fu Panda: 215 off 60: 3.58Ice Age 3: 196 off 41: 4.78Kung Fu Panda 2: 165 off 47: 3.5Over the Hedge: 155 off 38: 4.07Now, the lowest opening of these animated films in the summer is 38 mill but that was for an original film. So the next lowest is 41 mill for IA3. Now it ended up being really well received and had a massive multiplier. So let;s say Madagascar is not well received and it opens to about what IA3 did. Give it a 43 mill opening. Give it a low multiplier of 3.4 (which is the lowest multpiler on here..shrek 4) and with that you have 146 mill. Voila. This is not making less than 100 mill and I'll put a big bet on that. There is simply no precedent for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 This probably wont manage a 45M OW ...Middle 30s opening perhaps. Prometheus will destroy its OW and 2 weekend later there comes Brave.Prometheus will destroy it opening weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I don't agree with Baumer, but Prometheus and Mad3 are going after completely different audiences, so one shouldn't have any effect on the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Guys, don't dismiss my post. I've given you plenty to go on here. You are saying that Mad 3 will buck the trend and just all out tank. There is no data to support that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 (edited) This is not making less than 100 mill and I'll put a big bet on that. There is simply no precedent for it.I'm not saying it's going under $100m either. But why on earth would it open that high? That's only slightly less than KFP2 and that opened on Memorial Day weekend. It had two Saturdays. Edited March 21, 2012 by lab276 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Yeah, the problem is not the multiplier, the OW is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I'm not saying it's going under $100m either. But why on earth would it open that high? That's only slightly less than KFP2 and that opened on Memorial Day weekend. It had two Saturdays.Why would it open that high? 43 mill? That's high for an animated film with a built in audience in the summer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 You forgot the KFP2 bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Yeah, the problem is not the multiplier, the OW is.i'm simply stunned at this logic. What do you think it will open to, and why? Show me another film with a built in audience and in 3D, in the summer and a kids film that didn't open to more than 40 mill? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 You forgot the KFP2 bit It opened to 47 mill. What's your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 (edited) Did it not have a built-in audience? Did it not have summer? Edited March 21, 2012 by lab276 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Did it not have a built-in audience? Did it not have summer?Yes, and the multipler was 3.5 for part 2 and part 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 (edited) Mad2 didnt manage 3 multiplier. Edited March 21, 2012 by firedeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Mad2 didnt manage 2 multiplier.2.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Mad2 didnt manage 2 multiplier.Not a three multi you mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Not a three multi you mean.Yes, 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Yes, and the multipler was 3.5 for part 2 and part 1.And it opened significantly lower than the first one with 3D and inflation. And it wasn't a threequel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 So if Mad3 opens to the lowest possible opening, IA3's 41, and has the worst summer legs, 2.85, it makes 117 mill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 And it opened significantly lower than the first one with 3D and inflation. And it wasn't a threequel.Exactly, it wasn't a threequel. We already know how the other two did, so there is no reason to think this will drop significantly with 3D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Well I say it opens to 34 and has a 3.4 multi for just over $115m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
