baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Well, my official prediction in the summer game is a 55 mill opening and a 165 mill finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 The market is up this year and the trailer will appeal to kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I agree with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Madagascar sold 28.5 mio tickets in Europe and Madagascar 2 sold 31 mio tickets, and since the second movie didn't suck IMO, I would expect flat numbers in admissions at least.These were the admissions of European Union. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 (edited) The movie title will surely help the Europe gross, regarding America I'm not so sure. "Asias most wanted" would have been a better choice regarding worldwide box office, I guess...Madagascar 2 made about 300m in the whole of Europe.Madagascar 3 would make about 400m in the whole of Europe with the help of 3D. Edited March 22, 2012 by SentryTrans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 (edited) The market is up this year and the trailer will appeal to kids.I think either this or Ice Age have to give. I'm just concerned for animated sequels now entirely (Despicable Me 2 should be more than fine, though), especially because I don't think Madagascar 2 or Ice Age 3 got nearly as good a response as the first Cars or Kung Fu Panda movies did, and the sequels to those two were largely ignored at the box office. Madagascar will actually get two pretty open weekends for the family market, but I see no reason for it to do as well as KFP2.Worldwide I think this should easily meet or exceed the 600m that Madagascar 2 made. Edited March 21, 2012 by Gopher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I just see no evidence that kids won't love this one like the other two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 $150-160M seems likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Here is a sampling of non Pixar animated films released in the summer and their multipliers:Despicable Me: 256 mill off a 56 mill opening: 4.48Shrek 4: 238 off 70: 3.4Kung Fu Panda: 215 off 60: 3.58Ice Age 3: 196 off 41: 4.78Kung Fu Panda 2: 165 off 47: 3.5Over the Hedge: 155 off 38: 4.07Now, the lowest opening of these animated films in the summer is 38 mill but that was for an original film. So the next lowest is 41 mill for IA3. Now it ended up being really well received and had a massive multiplier. So let;s say Madagascar is not well received and it opens to about what IA3 did. Give it a 43 mill opening. Give it a low multiplier of 3.4 (which is the lowest multpiler on here..shrek 4) and with that you have 146 mill. Voila. This is not making less than 100 mill and I'll put a big bet on that. There is simply no precedent for it.Despicable Me, Over the Hedge and Kung Fu Panda are not comparable at all. They aren't sequels.That leaves you with 3 movies of which 2 are from Dreamworks and both dropped massively against their predecessors. Madagascar 2 had awful legs and didn't receive as good WOM as KFP so the most comparable comparison is Shrek 4.Except Madagascar has never been as popular as Shrek and Shrek 4 had less admissions than the original.Madagascar 3's trailer is also worse than KFP2/Cars2/SFA. But, I'm not going to go on and on about this. I think you're being purposefully contrarian like usual and have no need to engage in this. We'll see who's right when the time comes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I see no reason why this would drop more than $40M from the second one. It's the first animated film of the summer, based on a well-known franchise. It's not as if the second one was hated. It opened with $63M and fell 44% second weekend in November without the benefit of summer weekdays. Bolt opened on its third weekend with $26M and knocked it down, as Brave will do this year, but it'll pass $100M (probably on that weekend) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 this-looks-so-bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Despicable Me, Over the Hedge and Kung Fu Panda are not comparable at all. They aren't sequels.That leaves you with 3 movies of which 2 are from Dreamworks and both dropped massively against their predecessors.Madagascar 2 had awful legs and didn't receive as good WOM as KFP so the most comparable comparison is Shrek 4.Except Madagascar has never been as popular as Shrek and Shrek 4 had less admissions than the original.Madagascar 3's trailer is also worse than KFP2/Cars2/SFA.But, I'm not going to go on and on about this. I think you're being purposefully contrarian like usual and have no need to engage in this. We'll see who's right when the time comes.Believe me I am not being contrarian. My analysis fits the bill perfectly and the analysis says it will not open to less than 43 mill and won't have a multiplier less 2.8 mill. That means the absolute minimum it will do is 120 mill. It will do much more than that imo. The trailer is excellent and kids will love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Can't see the pic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 OS audience is going to eat this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Can't see the pic.That is an Italy poster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 If i had to make an early prediction WW, I'd say 700 mill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 With the help of 3D and exchange rate, it will have a huge increase in overseas markets, especially in Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia.A lot of movies benefited from 3D and emerging markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted March 25, 2012 Share Posted March 25, 2012 Maybe at least 645 M worldwide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted March 26, 2012 Share Posted March 26, 2012 700M WW is possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
