The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[Olive]

FIRST FRENCH NUMBERS FOR PARIS AT 2PM

4,300 admissions

8th best of the year.

I expected more, but it's too soon to judge. But still, it's disappointing for such a movie.

IA4 11463

TDKR: 7333

007：7142

MADAGASCAR 3 7112

AVENGERS 5922

LA VERITE SI JE MENS 3 5059

SUR LA PISTE DU MARSUPILAMI 4380

TH1 4300

PROMETHEUS 4248

TASM 3942

[Fullbuster]

IA4 11463

TDKR: 7333

007：7142

MADAGASCAR 3 7112

AVENGERS 5922

LA VERITE SI JE MENS 3 5059

SUR LA PISTE DU MARSUPILAMI 4380

TH1 4300

PROMETHEUS 4248

TASM 3942

Thank you Olive

I was wrong about TASM being higher, but wasn't far from it

Yeah, that's weak for the successor of LOTR. But it's way too soon to be worried, have faith guys

Edited December 12, 2012 by Fullbuster

[keysersoze123]

That is awful. If France under performs 1B OS is dead for sure. It needs to be super strong in all major markets(as close to ROTK admissions as possible) to hit 1B OS. My feeling is we are looking at ROTK unadjusted than 1B OS.

[IndustriousAngel]

I never saw 1bil OS as a goal - possible, yes, but very improbable. Look at what the LotR-films did. The fanbase is not growing, and more expensive 3D tickets are countered by less admissions.

[Fullbuster]

$900m OS would be great, I don't expect $1B.

[John Marston]

I hope this just means people are waiting to see it over the Holidays. Which is not that impossible to believe

[peludo]

That is awful. If France under performs 1B OS is dead for sure. It needs to be super strong in all major markets(as close to ROTK admissions as possible) to hit 1B OS. My feeling is we are looking at ROTK unadjusted than 1B OS.

TH does not need the same number of admissions than ROTK to reach 1 billion OS. With about a 30%-35% drop in admissions in 2003 developed markets you have the same gross than ROTK (the drop is compensated with inflation and 3D). And then you have to add expanding markets and some exchange rates quite favorable right now relative to 2003.But the initial drop in France is quite higher, about 60%. We have to wait.

[John Marston]

900m always felt more realistic especially considering this is only the first part

[Rudolf]

In France, there's a LOTR fanbase that frontloaded every entry back then. But it seems that the craze has worn off and many are considering to wait for the weekend or the holidays to check it. It's not The Event of the year anymore.

But what is?Asterix disappoined. Marsupilami was not that big. Skyfall is biggest, but small compared to other European countries.

[Fullbuster]

But what is?Asterix disappoined. Marsupilami was not that big. Skyfall is biggest, but small compared to other European countries.

France disappointed this year, clearly. We're starting to feel the economic crisis, consumption drops hard. Edited December 12, 2012 by Fullbuster

[Ajde]

Guys, come on?Since when is the Hobbit supposed to break records for presales, an opening day or an opening weekend.It's December, many kids have school til 22nd or so and people gotta go to work. It's not Summer.If anyone feels tad dissapointed it's probably due to the overhyping the film's opening that has been built up on forum literally since ages by ourselves.We just might have put the expectations a bit too high for it.None film that opened in December set records in terms of a single day gross, presales etc.Since it's not very frontloaded judging by the first results, strong holds are needed and we'll have to wait couple of days to see whether that happens or not. So no need to worry too much right now.Its strength relies on good weekdays and Xmas' and New Year's bumps.

[Fake]

I was expecting this......And remember, LOTR movies also opened in December, so 60% lower start means the final admissions figure will still be well behind LOTRs.

[Fake]

That is awful. If France under performs 1B OS is dead for sure. It needs to be super strong in all major markets(as close to ROTK admissions as possible) to hit 1B OS. My feeling is we are looking at ROTK unadjusted than 1B OS.

ROTK unadjusted was always more probable than 1B OS if it got 'good but not great' kind of WOM.

[peludo]

Guys, come on?Since when is the Hobbit supposed to break records for presales, an opening day or an opening weekend.It's December, many kids have school til 22nd or so and people gotta go to work. It's not Summer.If anyone feels tad dissapointed it's probably due to the overhyping the film's opening that has been built up on forum literally since ages by ourselves.We just might have put the expectations a bit too high for it.None film that opened in December set records in terms of a single day gross, presales etc.Since it's not very frontloaded judging by the first results, strong holds are needed and we'll have to wait couple of days to see whether that happens or not. So no need to worry too much right now.Its strength relies on good weekdays and Xmas' and New Year's bumps.

I know it. You are right, but the French data is too far from LOTR. Of course, this is a week earlier than LOTR releases and it has to affect, but still is a bit weak. That's all.

[peludo]

I was expecting this......

And remember, LOTR movies also opened in December, so 60% lower start means the final admissions figure will still be well behind LOTRs.

A week later than this. But yes, admissions will be well behind. The question is if it will be not as far as to get what some of us have been saying.

[keysersoze123]

TH does not need the same number of admissions than ROTK to reach 1 billion OS. With about a 30%-35% drop in admissions in 2003 developed markets you have the same gross than ROTK (the drop is compensated with inflation and 3D). And then you have to add expanding markets and some exchange rates quite favorable right now relative to 2003.But the initial drop in France is quite higher, about 60%. We have to wait.

that may work. I dont think Japanese ticket prices have changed that much and ROTK was HUGE back in 2003. SO it will lose in that market for sure. I think best way to set expectations is Hobbit needs to make 120% of USD gross of ROTK in all the major markets(any market where hobbit needs to make at least 10M). I also think it needs to do 60M in china/50M in Russia/30M in mexico/20M in brazil.

[Fake]

A week later than this. But yes, admissions will be well behind. The question is if it will be not as far as to get what some of us have been saying.

That makes it even worse. More away from the holiday period the opening is, smaller multiplier it will have.

We shall see.... do we have any comparisons for December movies from past couple of years?

[Neo]

People shouldn't start freaking out. This isn't breaking any opening records, but over the holiday period and new year, it'll play very, very well. I'm expecting about 900-950m OS. Same as DH2.

So no opening records? That includes IMAX midnights in Euorpe, Asia as well as opening days in various countries. So no records of any kind for the OW?

[peludo]

that may work. I dont think Japanese ticket prices have changed that much and ROTK was HUGE back in 2003. SO it will lose in that market for sure. I think best way to set expectations is Hobbit needs to make 120% of USD gross of ROTK in all the major markets(any market where hobbit needs to make at least 10M). I also think it needs to do 60M in china/50M in Russia/30M in mexico/20M in brazil.

Very reasonable. Japanese case has the peculiarity that exchange rate has risen a 18% since 2003, so it could soft the drop.

[keysersoze123]

Sweden was crazy. ROTK almost grossed 25M. I doubt Hobbit will come anywhere close in there or in other scandinavian markets. I hope we get better perspective in a day or two.