Weekend Estimates: TMB @ 13M, PROM @ 20.2M, ROA @ 15M, MAD3 @ 35.5M

[Dementeleus]

I'd love to be as accurate as possible. I think one of the problems is that it's hard enough finding reasonably accurate (not totally spun) production budget numbers. It's much rarer to find marketing budgets, especially for anything that's not a super high-profile tentpole.

[Jack Nevada]

I'm glad both new movies tanked. Expected for Prometheus, I knew the WOM would be mixed and it would have huge drop

[ecstasy]

To be fair, I used to do the same exact thing and I think the forums only still do it because everyone is used to using Mojo as the source (since that's where the forums originate from).When I started working with Boxoffice.com though, it was made "clear", let's say...that those production budgets reported don't tell the entire story.I wish it was more consistent too. But if we're looking at gauging the box office success of a film, I'm not sure how we justify excluding marketing costs personally.

So where does BO.com come up with the figure for the marketing budget? Is it official or is it an estimation. If estimated what is it based on?

[Shawn Robbins]

I'd love to be as accurate as possible. I think one of the problems is that it's hard enough finding reasonably accurate (not totally spun) production budget numbers. It's much rarer to find marketing budgets, especially for anything that's not a super high-profile tentpole.

Very true. We tend to low-ball them as much as possible to be on the safe side. Studios are never going to release that kind of exact information, unfortunately.

[Shawn Robbins]

So where does BO.com come up with the figure for the marketing budget? Is it official or is it an estimation. If estimated what is it based on?

Conservatively estimated, you might say.Honestly, if I was allowed to talk about it more then I would. Its kind of a sensitive subject. Edited June 16, 2012 by ShawnMR

[Mojoguy]

Merida, save us!

That's Merida AND Madea!

[Dementeleus]

Conservatively estimated, you might say.Honestly, if I was allowed to talk about it more then I would. Its kind of a sensitive subject.

[ecstasy]

Conservatively estimated, you might say.Honestly, if I was allowed to talk about it more then I would. Its kind of a sensitive subject.

Dear God.

[ecstasy]

That's Merida AND Madea!

LMAO Madea's twin sister.

[Shawn Robbins]

Dear God.

I know, it sounds like a total cop-out answer. :lol:I'm sure there are probably good reasons to only look at the production budget in some circumstances (such as comparing a filmmaker's resume to himself or others -- its not like the marketing department's lack of ability to put together a good campaign was Chris Nolan's fault on Batman Begins, for example).You could say that the production budget is a slightly better pass/fail test for the talent (directors, producers, etc.) whereas the total budget reflects more on the studio's overall business plan. Edited June 16, 2012 by ShawnMR

[cheesypoofs]

To anybody who said I was "wrong" saying that Prometheus would have a big dropoff because it isn't that good, I TOLD YOU SO!

[Dementeleus]

I know, it sounds like a total cop-out answer. :lol:I'm sure there are probably good reasons to only look at the production budget in some circumstances (such as comparing a filmmaker's resume to himself or others -- its not like the marketing department's lack of ability to put together a good campaign was Chris Nolan's fault on Batman Begins, for example).

I'd LOVE to see the full breakdowns. I know they're impossible to get. I even love accurate production breakdowns -- like when Edward J. Epstein posts budgets.

[TLK]

I know people are talking about production and marketing budgets so I'd like to add this post David Lieberman made at Deadline sometime ago. The numbers are from SNL Kagan.

‘The Avengers’ Soars But ‘Battleship’ And ‘The Dictator’ Sink In Profit Tally: Kagan

Only two of eight major movies released last month are clearly destined to make a profit — and one of them is, surprise!, Marvel’s The Avengers — according to SNL Kagan’s latest monthly tally. The firm says that The Avengers is likely to generate more than $2B in revenues from all sources (excluding merchandise sales) on total costs of $473.2M. The 4.24 ratio of expected revenues over costs is well above the 1.75 threshold that Kagan says establishes a film as clearly profitable. To account for revenue splits, expenses and variables that analysts can’t determine, the firm classifies films with a ratio of less than 1.75 but more than 1.40 as being in a gray area while those below 1.40 are deemed probably unprofitable. By that measure, Fox Searchlight’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel fared well, with a ratio of 2.60 ($169.6M in revenues on $65.2M in costs). Columbia’s Men In Black 3 is on the bubble with 1.53 ($687.2M over $450.0M). Films likely to spill red ink include include Universal’s Battleship ($450M over $401.8M), Paramount’s The Dictator ($171.6M over $176.1M), Warner Bros’ Dark Shadows ($279.3M over $293.4M), Warner Bros’ Chernobyl Diaries ($59.4M over $87.4M), and Lionsgate’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting ($66.8M over $121.5M).

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Takes From The Article : The Dictator has a stated budget of around 65 million but total costs are 176.1 million. Chernobyl Freakin' Diaries has a total cost of over 87.4 million. Battleship actually doesn't look too bad compared to some other movies and when you factor in Hasbro's contributions, it makes sense that no one got fired at Universal for this "debacle".

Edited June 16, 2012 by TLK

[RTX]

"We"? "We" -- as in we at Boxoffice.com -- use the entire estimated budget. Not the production-only budget that Hollywood studios spin as being the only negative cost on a movie.Mojo has never listed the true total budgets for a movie. That confused me for years as well, but, alas... they're inaccurate.(But yes, Prometheus's overall budget is a little more modest compared to those films you listed.)

We are all people from the former boxofficemojo forums. ;)And whatever total budget information BO.com is listing is surely made up and grossly inaccurate. NYT reported Avatar had a total budget of around 500M, but BO.com puts it at mere 360M. Also 200M for DH2? - ridiculous!Marketing budget is usually proportional to the production budget, which means the studio probably spent less money marketing Prom compared to MIB3.

[rockNrollaDIM]

I'm in VEGAS people!! Woooo! Just got into my hotel room.

[ecstasy]

I'm in VEGAS people!! Woooo! Just got into my hotel room.

IP right? How do you like it?

[rahvinn87]

Let's face it, when people like a movie they compare it's takings to the official production budget (or the most favourable estimate they can find).

When they don't like it they compare it's takings to the production+marketing budget/least favourable estimate.

We've all done it!

Marketing budget is usually proportional to the production budget

This seems to me to be the best foundation for comparing movies.

Not saying that it always works, but it is logical, and it's better to be consistent than use movie-by-movie 'guesses' (which often seem to be no more than plucked from thin air) on the marketing/other budgets.

[kayumanggi]

Next weekend is gonna be great. I can feel it. #optimism

[rockNrollaDIM]

IP right? How do you like it?

Haha. It's definitely a shitty hotel. The room is nicer than I expected judging from the outside though. And the pool was good.

[Totem]

Hoping Madagascar and Prometheus see healthy bumps today.