Big Hero 6 | November 7, 2014 | Now available on home video

[Caladbolg]

It doesn't open in the best weekend of the year, to say an euphemism. I've never liked the first week of November, it seems it nullifies every potential breakout. No holiday until Thanksgiving, overall weak dailies, lots of competition ahead and Christmas coming when the theatre count is below 1000 and weekend number in the low single digit. Monsters Inc barely got a 4x multiplier, and every other animated film went under that.

 

That said, it's not impossible for BH6 to open to 70+ if it's very weel advertised and 'foxy' enough.

 

BH6 is opening the same weekend slot that Skyfall, TDW, The Incredibles, Monsters Inc, WiR, and several others, posted at least $150m total gross. So it's in a prime slot for breakouts.

 

Other than Dreamwork's Home, BH6 doesn't have any direct competition.  That should help with weekend holds and give it and decent bump through Thanksgiving holidays, and possibly into Christmas, depending on reception of course.

[Mojoguy]

I'm still annoyed at Disney for releasing Princess and the Frog in December 11, 2009, when they could have released it two weeks earlier in Thanksgiving. Yes, it would have went up against the second weekend of New Moon, but all the Twilight sequels had terrible legs after they opened huge. Two extra weeks before Alvin 2 and also Avatar would have REALLY nice.

 

Come to think of it, Disney has been making terrible decisions or having really bad luck with their release dates until recently.

 

Home on the Range was released in early April

Chicken Little was released two weeks before Goblet of Fire

Robinsons was released in late March

Bolt was released on the same weekend as the first Twilight

Pooh going up against Deathly Hallows Part 2 has to be the absolute worst

[AniNate]

After The Lego Movie opened to nearly $70 million in February, I don't think you can use a release date as an excuse.

[Mojoguy]

After The Lego Movie opened to nearly $70 million in February, I don't think you can use a release date as an excuse.

But Home on the Range and Robinsons was released before Lego.

[AniNate]

-HOTR looked really unappealing and would've flopped wherever it was released.

-Robinsons was a mediocre film that did appropriately mediocre at the box office (and Ice Age and HTTYD did very well in March). 

-Chicken Little did better than it deserved even with the competition.

-Bolt you might have a case for, but it wasn't an insurmountable challenge. In theory it should've been great counterprogramming (boy-targeted kids film going up against girl-targeted fantasy).

-I don't think Disney really had an interest in turning Pooh into a hit. It was aimed at small children and they marketed it sparingly with that in mind.

[BadAtGender]

I think the PatF release date was because Disney got incredibly unlucky with Bolt. It seemed like a good, even perfect release date, given how animation like Happy Feet had performed in the pre-Thanksgiving weekend. But Twilight was a huge surprise, came out of nowhere, and had a very strong following among teenage girls, which is one of Disney's core markets. The fact Bolt was well received and had pretty strong legs didn't do enough.

 

Thus, PatF was slotted a few weeks later to avoid the overcast from New Moon. Unfortunately, there really wasn't a good release date for it. Christmas was covered by the chipmunks sequel, so they couldn't push it back that far. It's unfortunately myopic that they didn't go for Thanksgiving itself, but while hindsight is 20/20 showing that the Twilight films were pretty much one and done as far as weekend dominance, that wasn't known until after New Moon opened. Disney was gun-shy and it didn't work out for them.

 

With Tangled and Frozen (and even The Muppets, to a lesser degree), the now know that Thanksgiving is fine for releases, even if there's something big the previous weekend. Of course it helps to have a product that people are going to anticipate seeing. Bolt and PatF were coming off the bad mid-00s period which wasn't good for the studio.

[Omni]

BH6 is opening the same weekend slot that Skyfall, TDW, The Incredibles, Monsters Inc, WiR, and several others, posted at least $150m total gross. So it's in a prime slot for breakouts.

 

Other than Dreamwork's Home, BH6 doesn't have any direct competition.  That should help with weekend holds and give it and decent bump through Thanksgiving holidays, and possibly into Christmas, depending on reception of course.

With 'breakout' I mean a movie that gets an opening weekend around or above expectations and afterwards experience great legs (like 4.5/5x multiplier) thanks to lack of competition and/or strong dailies and/or a couple of holidays. Among the films you listed, only Skyfall broke out, and that is not an animated film, and that didn't open on WIR's weekend.

2004 > The Incredibles opens to a strong though unexciting 70M and then can't even beat Shrek because of a sub-3.8 multiplier.

2005 > Chicken Little: nice 40M opening, followed by weak legs (3.35 multiplier)

2006 > Flushed Away flopped, Santa Clause 3 barely went above a 4x multiplier despite its Christmas theme

2007 > Bee Movie: average opening, meh legs (3.3x)

2008 > Madagascar 2 opened to a respectable 63M but failed to even get a 3x multiplier and closed at 180M

2009 > A Christmas Carol disappointed, opening to a low 30M; then it got strong, though relatively average, legs(4.5x)

2010 > Megamind got an average 46M OW, and couldn't even get to 150M because of weak legs (3.2x)

2011 > -

2012 > Wrech it Ralph opened under 50M, and then got a multiplier lower than 4x despite very strong WOM (many were disappointed by its legs, in fact)

2013 > Free Birds couldn't take advantage of an empty marketplace and opened to 16M before receiving an average 3.5 multiplier for a 55M finish.

 

Conclusion? The first weekend of November is not a strong release date for animated films. History shows it.

A look at the top 20 animated films of all time. Only 2 of them opened in the first November slot (Monsters Inc and The Incredibles), and they were inevitable successes, both of them guaranteed to finish above 225M.

 

Again, the first weekend of November nullifies animated breakouts, and Big Hero 6 will have to try to break that rule.

[Dingdong123]

The early november release limits the potential high amount of legs a film can have, much like a spring release. Ralph's legs is actually really great compared to other early november animated releases. I'd be fine with similar legs given that this looks to open stronger than Ralph.

[Caladbolg]

 

Conclusion? The first weekend of November is not a strong release date for animated films. History shows it.

A look at the top 20 animated films of all time. Only 2 of them opened in the first November slot (Monsters Inc and The Incredibles), and they were inevitable successes, both of them guaranteed to finish above 225M.

 

Again, the first weekend of November nullifies animated breakouts, and Big Hero 6 will have to try to break that rule.

 

It's not so much the release date as it content. You could put Free Birds in May or July and the result would be the same. If BH6 has a good enough appeal, it will perform as well some of the top animated movies. If not it will fall in line with some of the other mediocre films

 

Turbo got a  Summer release date, couldn't  even make it to $90m.  Reception is often more important than release date. This is why we're starting to get "big" movies released outside what has been normally considered the lucrative months.

[Jessie]

With 'breakout' I mean a movie that gets an opening weekend around or above expectations and afterwards experience great legs (like 4.5/5x multiplier) thanks to lack of competition and/or strong dailies and/or a couple of holidays. Among the films you listed, only Skyfall broke out, and that is not an animated film, and that didn't open on WIR's weekend.

2004 > The Incredibles opens to a strong though unexciting 70M and then can't even beat Shrek because of a sub-3.8 multiplier.

2005 > Chicken Little: nice 40M opening, followed by weak legs (3.35 multiplier)

2006 > Flushed Away flopped, Santa Clause 3 barely went above a 4x multiplier despite its Christmas theme

2007 > Bee Movie: average opening, meh legs (3.3x)

2008 > Madagascar 2 opened to a respectable 63M but failed to even get a 3x multiplier and closed at 180M

2009 > A Christmas Carol disappointed, opening to a low 30M; then it got strong, though relatively average, legs(4.5x)

2010 > Megamind got an average 46M OW, and couldn't even get to 150M because of weak legs (3.2x)

2011 > -

2012 > Wrech it Ralph opened under 50M, and then got a multiplier lower than 4x despite very strong WOM (many were disappointed by its legs, in fact)

2013 > Free Birds couldn't take advantage of an empty marketplace and opened to 16M before receiving an average 3.5 multiplier for a 55M finish.

 

Conclusion? The first weekend of November is not a strong release date for animated films. History shows it.

A look at the top 20 animated films of all time. Only 2 of them opened in the first November slot (Monsters Inc and The Incredibles), and they were inevitable successes, both of them guaranteed to finish above 225M.

 

Again, the first weekend of November nullifies animated breakouts, and Big Hero 6 will have to try to break that rule.

 

Im sorry but how is a 70m OW considered 'not exciting'? That number adjusts to over 100m now with 3d which for an original movie is pretty damn impressive. It couldn't beat Shrek because Shrek was adored, people love it but in no way does that make The Incredibles a disappointment. It probably sold a similar amount of tickets as what Frozen will end up selling come the end of its run but because this was 10 years ago, you all forget this.

[Dingdong123]

With 'breakout' I mean a movie that gets an opening weekend around or above expectations and afterwards experience great legs (like 4.5/5x multiplier) thanks to lack of competition and/or strong dailies and/or a couple of holidays. Among the films you listed, only Skyfall broke out, and that is not an animated film, and that didn't open on WIR's weekend.

2004 > The Incredibles opens to a strong though unexciting 70M and then can't even beat Shrek because of a sub-3.8 multiplier.

2005 > Chicken Little: nice 40M opening, followed by weak legs (3.35 multiplier)

2006 > Flushed Away flopped, Santa Clause 3 barely went above a 4x multiplier despite its Christmas theme

2007 > Bee Movie: average opening, meh legs (3.3x)

2008 > Madagascar 2 opened to a respectable 63M but failed to even get a 3x multiplier and closed at 180M

2009 > A Christmas Carol disappointed, opening to a low 30M; then it got strong, though relatively average, legs(4.5x)

2010 > Megamind got an average 46M OW, and couldn't even get to 150M because of weak legs (3.2x)

2011 > -

2012 > Wrech it Ralph opened under 50M, and then got a multiplier lower than 4x despite very strong WOM (many were disappointed by its legs, in fact)

2013 > Free Birds couldn't take advantage of an empty marketplace and opened to 16M before receiving an average 3.5 multiplier for a 55M finish.

 

Conclusion? The first weekend of November is not a strong release date for animated films. History shows it.

A look at the top 20 animated films of all time. Only 2 of them opened in the first November slot (Monsters Inc and The Incredibles), and they were inevitable successes, both of them guaranteed to finish above 225M.

 

Again, the first weekend of November nullifies animated breakouts, and Big Hero 6 will have to try to break that rule.

 

Of all the films you listed, only Wreck-it Ralph and The Incredibles were great. Both of which had great legs for an early november release. And nothing was disappointing of their runs. Well Megamind was fine. The others were a big meh. And don't forget Monster's Inc. which had an almost 5x multiplier from its OW. So yeah, it mostly depends on the quality of the film.

[John Marston]

Wreck it Ralph was an average film IMO. Won't be surprised if audiences felt the same seeing as it failed to really break out ,like the Lego Movie is doing now

[CJohn]

Wreck-It Ralph is a poor attempt at making something great. The first half is especially boring. The 2nd half is good and last 15 min are great.

[Jessie]

Well Megamind was my favourite animation of the last 5 years so it shows how much I know lol. I wish they made a sequel to that rather than Despicable me

Edited February 17, 2014 by Jessie

[Omni]

Of all the films you listed, only Wreck-it Ralph and The Incredibles were great. Both of which had great legs for an early november release. And nothing was disappointing of their runs. Well Megamind was fine. The others were a big meh. And don't forget Monster's Inc. which had an almost 5x multiplier from its OW. So yeah, it mostly depends on the quality of the film.

Monsters Inc opened to 62.5 and finished with 255, its multiplier was just a tad above 4x. It's not really "all about quality" (or a matter of how much moviegoers like the movie, which is not the same thing), the actual scenario is very different. We see a general flattening of legs. The range is 3.3/4.0, and there's not much difference from a crappy Free Birds (3.52) and the Incredibles (3.75).

Things change a lot when we take March releases, or the mid-June openers, or even the October "lessers", etc etc. Ranges are wider, you have Horton and you have Dragon Trainer. And you have the Madagascar films.

And I see my point was somehow missed. You can't pick a film (Free Birds or the Incredibles) and just focus on it. I've never said or thought that a film like Free Birds would have been a probable hit in another slot, though it could have a 70+ potential with a different release date. And The Incredibles came after Toy Story 2, Monsters Inc and Nemo - when the two 'predecessors' opened to 62.5 and 70 respectively, and after a trend on increasing numbers on OW, 70.5 is a tad bitter (in fact, I'm sure it was the first Pixar film to gross below expectations - or maybe the second if you include Bug's Life). Give Up the first weekend of November, and you won't see it getting close to 300M. Frozen three weekends earlier? DM2 would have kept the title. And we can continue. The first slot of November does not make a film disappoint, in fact there have been some successful 'cartoons' opening that weekend. It just limits its potential, reduces the range, lowers the ceiling. Too many weak dailies, and too many upcoming blockbusters overshadowing you - soon, there will be something else to see, you won't be one of the major options on Thanksgiving, and you'll be forgotten by Christmas. Again, that's clearly proven by the fact that no unexpected breakout has ever opened on that weekend, that every huge breakout took place in a different period of the year and that among the more 'modest' CGI releases that managed to do surprisingly well not even one of them opened on that slot.

[Spidey Freak]

But Dingdong has a point that none of those movies save for MI and TI had REAL potential to breakout. MI did splendidly for what was just the dawn of Pixar. As for The Incredibles, I think GA went in expecting the heart and sentimentality of TS2 and FN and ended up with something else completely. Plus, as I mentioned before, it was a little ahead of its time because it came BEFORE the peak of superhero popularity in pop-culture. I'm sure that if it had come out now when the GA has become much more genre savvy regarding superheroes, than they were ten years back, they would have been able to appreciate the movie more.

 

Ultimately, Disney didn't have much of a choice when it came to BH6. Dreamworks had already nabbed the Thanksgiving slot for Home. So BH6 would have to go head to head with that (a big NO! even if BH6 is the superior and more anticipated movie). So instead they decided to release it two weeks earlier to give it a headstart on Home and build great WOM. No ways would WDAS release anything in December now after the TPATF debacle. October is an option but kind of risky especially since BH6 is not Halloween/horror themed. So first weekend of November was the best choice among what lesser options there were. Two weeks for itself, and when Home rolls out, BH6 may have already amassed lots of strong WOM, so that it holds up against that movie in a spectacular fashion. Allows for a greater OW and initial holds than immediately going up against Home and MJ1 if it had come out during Thanksgiving. 

[Jonwo]

I think PATF was also affected by A Christmas Carol already having a November slot, had that not been there, PATF likely would have had the early November slot. 

 

The Thanksgiving slot hasn't proved best for DWA as Guardians flopped and unless it's got exceptional marketing and trailers, I can't see Home doing much better. 

 

 

 

Turbo got a  Summer release date, couldn't  even make it to $90m.  Reception is often more important than release date. This is why we're starting to get "big" movies released outside what has been normally considered the lucrative months.

 

 

With DWA and Disney snapping the best release dates years in advance, studios like WB, Sony started to release films in the quieter months to give their animated films the best possible chance. March never used to be such a big month but then films like 300, Alice in Wonderland, Hunger Games etc have made it a lucrative month.

Edited February 18, 2014 by Jonwo

[BadAtGender]

If Disney did move BH6 to Thanksgiving, I bet Dreamworks would move. They've actually had better relative success in the early November slot (Madagascar 2, Megamind, Bee Movie).

[Spidey Freak]

If Disney did move BH6 to Thanksgiving, I bet Dreamworks would move. They've actually had better relative success in the early November slot (Madagascar 2, Megamind, Bee Movie).

 

But Disney Animation has not yet reached the "bully" position, and especially not in a position to bully a big player like Dreamworks, even despite Frozilla. If Home doesn't move then both movies would end up hurting each other a lot, instead of one owning the other.

[a2k]

Disney got it's ass kicked when DM2 released in MU's 3rd weekend.

 

MU has the worst multiplier after Cars 2 for Pixar. Even though it's 2nd weekend drop of 44%, despite being a sequel, was better than originals like Wall-e and Brave, and same as Cars.

 

3rd weekend onwards it's drops were 57%, 46% ,52%, 44%, 51%, 51%. How many 50%+ drops is that for an animation movie that dropped less than 45% in 2nd weekend!

 

They could have moved ahead 2 weeks and gotten 4 weekends between DM2 and MU, but after TS3 maybe they overestimated MU and underestimated DM2.

 

As animation movies go, unless they are making a princess movie or a Pixar movie, Disney cannot afford to play chicken with a studio like DW.

Edited February 18, 2014 by a2knet