South Korea Box Office

[Stewart]

So about $8m as expected for Friday, also pretty much identical (24.2% vs. 24.1%) increase to IW. 

[fabiopazzo2]

$ 22.6M in 3 days

[Sam]

Hmm, so it’s 1.03m for Friday?

 

Sounds like my bet on 1.30m was the closest, guys. I have all three numbers correctly (1, 0, and 3) after all.

[Fish&chips]

Great reporting guys. 

 

Gotta say finished my second showing tonight, the crowd weren’t as enthusiastic as the one on OD. Shame but not surprising I guess.

 

I think the real differentiating factor for Endgame is how well it will hold week 2 onwards. I saw a report after OD that said repeat viewings were 2.2%, which basically means 2 out of the 100 people were repeat viewers. That’s basically unheard of at that stage of release. 

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Fish&chips said:

Great reporting guys. 

 

Gotta say finished my second showing tonight, the crowd weren’t as enthusiastic as the one on OD. Shame but not surprising I guess.

 

I think the real differentiating factor for Endgame is how well it will hold week 2 onwards. I saw a report after OD that said repeat viewings were 2.2%, which basically means 2 out of the 100 people were repeat viewers. That’s basically unheard of at that stage of release. 

I feel this applies worldwide. On the one hand it should be more frontloaded because it's THE finale. On the other hand it's more rewatchable. 

 

Personally I think the legs of this will be surprisingly similar to IW, maybe better in markets where IW didn't hold all that well

[troyand]

Holy shit, today's CGV presales number starts with 528k.

[Stewart]

So 527k for CGV presales. 

 

Based on Captain Marvel, Saturday should be about as presale heavy as OD was. This direct comparison then provides us with 1640k adm. for Saturday!! Still a smaller increase than IW. 

 

Based on this I see 1500k locked.

 

Also presales for all of SK at midnight was around 2.15m, less than OD MN which was expected tbh, but still huge. Based on CGV, 1.1m of these are for Saturday! 

 

EDIT: to see CM's run or other comps, visit my sheet at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

Edited April 26, 2019 by Stewart

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, troyand said:

Holy shit, today's CGV presales number starts with 528k.

I hoped for a bit more tbh

[pepsa]

Spoiler

1 hour ago, Stewart said:

Estimated 1045k admissions today from me. 

 

Here's the table for the first three days, looks like EG having a 25% increase on Friday practically matching IW's increase

 

Wednesday, 24 April		Thursday, 25 April		Friday, 26 April
Time	Adm.	Time	Adm.	Time	Adm.
Presales	431,000	Presales	224,000	Presales	299,000
09:20	443,000	09:20	244,000	09:20	319,000
10:20	452,000	10:20	253,000	10:20	329,000
11:20	463,000	11:20	264,000	11:20	339,000
12:20	475,000	12:20	274,000	12:20	350,000
13:20	489,000	13:20	288,000	13:20	364,000
14:20	505,000	14:20	303,000	14:20	381,000
15:20	517,000	15:20	317,000	15:20	395,000
16:20	529,000	16:20	329,000	16:20	409,000
17:20	540,000	17:20	341,000	17:20	423,000
18:20	550,000	18:20	352,000	18:20	435,000
19:20	559,000	19:20	363,000	19:20	448,000
20:20	568,000	20:20	373,000	20:20	460,000
21:20	575,000	21:20	380,000	21:20	471,000
22:20	582,000	22:20	387,000	22:20	480,000
23:20	588,000	23:20	392,000	23:20	487,000
Actual:	1,339,401	Actual:	832,302	Actual:	1,045,000
			-37.9%		+25.6%

 

 

The surprisingly close run to IW is definitely surprising. Though it certainly won't match IW's +80% increase as that would result in nearly 1.8m adm. requiring ~90% capacity. I'm expecting around 1.55m tomorrow then a soft drop on Sunday due to spillover, around 1.35m. Giving a 6.1m adm. 5-day overall. Total wise would then be looking in the range of 13.5-14.5m depending on legs. Top all time foreign movie in admissions. With the bad ER, top in USD may be difficult. 

 

I fully agree with the +1.55m from you!

Good analysis as always

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

I fully agree with the +1.55m from you!

Good analysis as always

Thanks  Should've stuck with the same % as yesterday though, reduced down to 46.5% and that was my bane.

 

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I hoped for a bit more tbh

Don't be so greedy! 527k is great, actually that means almost 1.1m presales across the all chains as I mentioned. THAT is just batshit crazy... In fact it's not far off IW's final presales Tuesday night...

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Thanks  Should've stuck with the same % as yesterday though, reduced down to 46.5% and that was my bane.

 

Don't be so greedy! 527k is great, actually that means almost 1.1m presales across the all chains as I mentioned. THAT is just batshit crazy... In fact it's not far off IW's final presales Tuesday night...

Yeah 1121k in presales for sat, my problem is I want to see those hourly rates pick up for once. We can't trust them, I mean ps are atleast asured 😛 

[John Marston]

Can someone update the title with Endgame updates?

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Can someone update the title with Endgame updates?

I will give another one 1625k for tomorrow about $13m USD

[pepsa]

5 hours ago, Stewart said:

Estimated 1045k admissions today from me. 

 

5 hours ago, Stewart said:

1,025,178 - will rise to about 1033k, should've stuck with @pepsa's estimate!

 

NOPE you shoudn't have !! 

 

Actuals are 1.047.188 that $8.4m USD

 

Updating prediction to 1650k for tomorrow (13.2m USD)

 

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

 

 

NOPE you shoudn't have !! 

 

Actuals are 1.047.188 that $8.4m USD

 

Updating prediction to 1650k for tomorrow (13.2m USD)

 

Goddammit. I'm better than I think I am. 

 

Edging closer and closer to @Brainbug's promised 1.6m or whatever it was. 

 

I'll go for 1625k, still not sure it can realistically fill everything up. Plus let you have the upper ground this time  

[Brainbug]

Hey guys who is this Brainbug guy and why did he post that ridiculous (but also kind of nice) 1,696,969 prediction? Seems like that guy doesnt know shit about anything huh.

[ZeeSoh]

9.20 CGV update is at 553k admissions. That is 73% higher than what the number was at the same time yesterday. If this number holds for the entire day then Saturday will see 1.811m admissions!!!! A 73% jump is also not crazy. Infinity War jumped 80% and recently Captain Marvel jumped 142%

 

The number seems crazy so I am gonna stick with 1.6-1.7 million admissions for the day. But it would be awesome if it touched 1.8m

Edited April 27, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[pepsa]

4 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

9.20 CGV update is at 553k admissions. That is 73% higher than what the number was at the same time yesterday. If this number holds for the entire day then Saturday will see 1.811m admissions!!!! A 73% jump is also not crazy. Infinity War jumped 80% and recently Captain Marvel jumped 142%

 

The number seems crazy so I am gonna stick with 1.6-1.7 million admissions for the day. But it would be awesome if it touched 1.8m

Yeah but the morning has never been to problem it's the walk ups that have to come (they haven't in the last few, atleast not hugely because of the insane amount of PS's). The positive is that CGV's % of the market goes down on Saturday so it has to make less on CGV tracking to make the same. 

[Stewart]

5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

9.20 CGV update is at 553k admissions. That is 73% higher than what the number was at the same time yesterday. If this number holds for the entire day then Saturday will see 1.811m admissions!!!! A 73% jump is also not crazy. Infinity War jumped 80% and recently Captain Marvel jumped 142%

 

The number seems crazy so I am gonna stick with 1.6-1.7 million admissions for the day. But it would be awesome if it touched 1.8m

So, me and @pepsa used the spreadsheet to roughly work out what we would expect throughout the day. Up until about 2:20 we were practically spot on, then we missed the 3:20 update by a tad. 

 

However, as he explained above, the evening has always been slower for walkups due to the sheer lack of seating. At the moment our formulas are indicating a 54% increase to 1615k, though me and him both think it could go a little higher.

 

Needless to say, the single day record is well beyond gone by now.

 

Saturday, 27 April
Time	Adm.
Presales	527,000
09:20	553,000
10:20	564,000
11:20	577,000
12:20	591,000
13:20	607,000
14:20	623,000
15:20	638,000
16:20	652,000
17:20	667,000
18:20	680,000
19:20	694,000
20:20	707,000
21:20	719,000
22:20	728,000
23:20	735,000
Actual:	1,615,385

 

full sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

[Stewart]

So, me and @pepsa were trying to figure out if there is a pattern with the % of sales CGV has and the total sales for the day. What we noticed was that as the sales get much bigger, the % CGV has decreases. 
 
Now, this logically makes sense right? As CGV sells out people have to go elsewhere to the smaller chains and independents, so therefore CGV's % decrease. We decided to plot this onto a graph to actually try and make sense of it. We only used days from Captain Marvel and Endgame (the movies we have data for) that had large admissions, otherwise the CGV caps at around 50%. So we went for days with 750k admissions or more. Below you can see the graph that was plotted:

 

 Now, obviously 5 data points isn't very many, but having a trend of 0.937 / 1.0 is actually a very very good correlation. This implies that it might actually work to use this to estimate the % CGV will take for Saturday.

 

 Now we come to Saturday itself. The 11:20pm number should end up being roughly 736k adm., which means at the very least means over 1600k admissions. However, to abide by the graph above, it indicates that perhaps a % around 42.5% would be more appropriate. Using 42.5% gives us 1732k admissions for the day. Now, this sounds absolutely monstrous, but it is believable. It would only require somewhere around 80% capacity, which is still huge. 

 

 The official % me and Pep will be going for is 43%, since this is laying on the side of caution and is not far from Opening Day's % of 43.9%. This gives an official estimate of 1712k admissions for Saturday. Now, this is humongous and a 63.5% increase from Friday. However that's actually a very small increase for the MCU. For comparison Infinity War increased 80% and Captain Marvel over 140%. So we believe Endgame has absolutely destroyed the Single Day record. Now when numbers come in just over 90 minutes time, the number will be about 2% off the final figure, since we're dealing with such huge numbers, we'd expect a first result of around 1670-1680k to rise over and up to our 1712k. Anything over 1665k should assure that 1.7m happens. 

 

Here's the usual table for today:

 

Saturday, 27 April
Time	Adm.
Presales	527,000
09:20	553,000
10:20	564,000
11:20	577,000
12:20	591,000
13:20	607,000
14:20	623,000
15:20	638,000
16:20	653,000
17:20	667,000
18:20	680,000
19:20	693,000
20:20	707,000
21:20	718,000
22:20	728,000
23:20	736,000
Actual:	1,711,628
	+63.5%

 

 

And for more comparisons you can see the full spreadsheet here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

 

Oh, and of course this means Sunday has a chance to beat the previous Single day record as well.

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Stewart