South Korea Box Office

[pepsa]

Looking like another insane day, CGV will end with 34k vs 31k on tuesday 1-1 that would give us 74k Thursday but CGV ratio might be a bit worse but everything is pointing at another increase. Expecting atleast 70k today with upper bound of 75k, at the lowest that means an 20% increase over last week. And like I said at the start of the week last week the friday and saturday jump came back to earth and it should be able to match it this week so yeah.... looks like 3rd weekend is increasing more than its second weekend....

 

Also other than last wednesday every day it has been increasing showing that it isn't slowing down yet. With next weeks competition doing even worse at PS than this weeks it should have another full week to it self and it's perfectly positioned to increase in its 4th weekend. (Obviously demand will burn off at some point but it isn't showing signs yet).

 

My prediction:

2.15m by sunday

930k 4th week (but this could be higher, like I said it has no competition so it might increase)

3.08m by next sunday

 

Point is 3m by its 4th weekend seems very likely, locking 4m and on it's way to 5-6-?...m. If it holds well vs MI the sky is the limit and that would probably mean that it has a good shot at beating it (in total admission).

Edited June 29, 2023 by pepsa

[Olive]

4M is likely with small competitions from other amimated movies.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Looking like 73k admissions today (+7% this Tuesday, +26% last Thursday), very impressive

[Issac Newton]

Toei's "THE FIRST SLAM DUNK"

 

Weekend 1 - 309,316 / 420,120 (3rd)
Weekend 2 - 345,255 / 934,935 (2nd) +11.6%
Weekend 3 - 265,925 / 1,351,360 (2nd) -23.0%
Weekend 4 - 249,167 / 1,922,683 (1st) -6.3%
Weekend 5 - 276,429 / 2,348,306 (1st) +10.9%
Weekend 6 - 325,101 / 2,856,939 (1st) +17.6%
Weekend 7 - 269,984 / 3,282,262 (2nd) -17.0%
Weekend 8 - 170,575 / 3,579,741 (2nd) -36.8%
Weekend 9 - 99,589 / 4,006,842 (2nd) -13.3%
Weekend 10 - 107,517 / 4,155,089 (2nd) +8.0%
Weekend 11 - 89,555 / 4,279,794 (3rd) -16.7%
 

Final Numbers - 4,691,157 admits

 

3 hours ago, Olive said:

4M is likely with small competitions from other amimated movies.

I am thinking the same.

[pepsa]

73.6k thursday, will we see an 25% increase this weekend?

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

73.6k thursday, will we see an 25% increase this weekend?

Yup, up 26.5% from last Thursday where presales were around 99K+ and this week over 119K. Walkups should be good as well and add in higher presales, 30% for the weekend maybe on the cards. With another open weekend afterwards, potentially Elemental could increase again next weekend. I'm starting to think 5M will happen and after that, who the hell knows where it will land.

Just enjoy the crazy ride!!!!

[pepsa]

I will let @TalismanRing post his beautiful charts, much clearer than my top 3/4 movies ^^

 

As for today Elemental had another increase week over week, this time 26.6% to 73.6k. Down from cultures day but that was to be expected. Tomorrow's CGV starts at 21k vs 15k last week, it should easly match the 40% jump of last friday and might match the 50%+ jump of last week even 60% isn't off the table thought a bit crazy. So friday will probably be up more than 30%, I would guess a that we are looking at a 110k friday. PS are also looking great, already up 20% last weekend whilst at the same time becoming less PS dependant.

 

Indi's 56.5k isn't bad, better than spideys first thursday but the PS for friday seem rather week it might not see a great bump unless walkups are very strong tomorrow.

 

Spidey is looking at big drop (20.05k today, down 50% vs last week), but mostly because it lost so many showtimes, i loosing close to 50% of showtimes on wednesday cut it legs hard. Otherwise a 30% drop would have been in the cards, and thats why holding on to showtimes and good capacity numbers are important.

 

Funfact: Elemental still has less showtimes than Roundup even though it's grossing 50% more daily, so there is room to grow.

Edited June 29, 2023 by pepsa

[pepsa]

11 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Yup, up 26.5% from last Thursday where presales were around 99K+ and this week over 119K. Walkups should be good as well and add in higher presales, 30% for the weekend maybe on the cards. With another open weekend afterwards, potentially Elemental could increase again next weekend. I'm starting to think 5M will happen and after that, who the hell knows where it will land.

Just enjoy the crazy ride!!!!

Looking at friday it seems as 5m is much more likely than not making 5m at this point. Ofc we still have to see what happens when its first real competition enters the scene MI followed by oppenheimer the week after. If it survives those as it is counter programming we might see a completely insane run. Helped by schools being out in 2 weeks as well ^^

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

10 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Looking at friday it seems as 5m is much more likely than not making 5m at this point. Ofc we still have to see what happens when its first real competition enters the scene MI followed by oppenheimer the week after. If it survives those as it is counter programming we might see a completely insane run. Helped by schools being out in 2 weeks as well ^^

wtf schools aren't even out yet? wow... this run could be something special

[cannastop]

13 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

wtf schools aren't even out yet? wow... this run could be something special

Looks like August is when schools are out, a little like how it is in Japan.

[druv10]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Looking at friday it seems as 5m is much more likely than not making 5m at this point. Ofc we still have to see what happens when its first real competition enters the scene MI followed by oppenheimer the week after. If it survives those as it is counter programming we might see a completely insane run. Helped by schools being out in 2 weeks as well ^^

Correct, as I said yesterday everything is there for Aladdin type of run. Aladdin was unexpected as well just like Elemental.

 

Fly in the ointment is MI7 since Tom and Mission Franchise are both big in SK. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with MI7 and usually multiple movies can survive each other but screen loss, could be critical to 6-7M admissions versus 10M+ like Aladdin.

 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

Looks like Elemental's SK gross will overtake its China gross this weekend, might end up doubling it by the end of its run if all goes to plan.

[druv10]

Days	Daily Admissions	Weekly %	Total Admissions
Wednesday (OD)	48,002		52,039
Thursday  (Lowest Day)	41,921		93,960
Friday	64,999		158,959
Saturday	177,851		336,810
Sunday	179,225		516,035
Monday	52,398		568,433
Tuesday	55,730		624,163
Wednesday	60,867	+27%	685,030
Thursday	58,135	+39%	743,165
Friday	81,941	+26%	825,106
Saturday	205,899	+16%	1,031,005
Sunday	210,688	+18%	1,241,693
Monday	65,141	+24%	1,306,834
Tuesday	68,444	+23%	1,375,278
Wednesday  (Culture Day)	110,284	+81%	1,485,562
Thursday	73,648	+27%	1,559,210

 

 

I figured we needed a table to contextualized Elemental's run.

Edited June 29, 2023 by druv10

[TalismanRing]

June 29, 2023 (Thursday)

 

Rank	Title		Release Date	Daily Gross (Total)	Admissions (Total)	Number of Screens	Revenue Share
1		Elemental U.S.	Jun 14, 2023	$549,151 ($11,627,919)	73,648 (1,559,210)	1,015	28.65%
2		Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny U.S.	Jun 28, 2023	$424,685 ($1,121,543)	56,513 (164,562)	1,208	22.16%
3		THE ROUNDUP : NO WAY OUT South Korea	May 31, 2023	$319,828 ($74,256,339)	49,040 (9,897,364)	930	16.69%
4		The Childe South Korea	Jun 21, 2023	$165,294 ($3,425,249)	21,873 (464,697)	717	8.62%
5		Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse U.S.	Jun 21, 2023	$160,062 ($3,741,990)	20,047 (462,813)	687	8.35%
6		Detective Conan: The Story of Ai Haibara: Black Iron Mystery Train Japan	Jun 23, 2023	$46,508 ($422,062)	6,319 (53,943)	167	2.42%
7		My Love China	Aug 25, 2021	$42,397 ($402,037)	5,961 (59,369)	222	2.21%
8		2022 YOUNGTAK CONCERT : THE MOVIE South Korea	Jun 28, 2023	$70,865 ($284,460)	3,893 (15,623)	57	3.69%
9		Asteroid City U.S.	Jun 28, 2023	$25,193 ($113,313)	3,504 (15,770)	254	1.31%
10		The Flash U.S.	Jun 14, 2023	$18,455 ($4,923,122)	2,611 (609,854)	233	0.96%

[pepsa]

I have no words for this movie, this run

Last week friday it ended with a CGV of 35k for an 82k friday. At 2.20pm it already crossed 37k on CGV by 3.20pm it's at 41 CGV.

Midday is somewhere between these so for the bare minimum it's doing 53k (so 112k), much more likely is a finish around 58k or 124k if CGV ratio doesn't change to much.

 

So at worst we are looking at a jump of 52% (week to week of 32%), but 124k would mean a 68% jump over thursday and a jump of 51.3% week to week!!

I mean if the saturday jump is higher than last week (very doable) we could be looking at close to a 60% week to week jump from its second weekend! It's madness.

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

This might be my favourite run this year, been following it more than the entire DOM market the last few days

[LegionWrex]

Genuinely insane run happening for Elemental right now, I can feel it. Thinking it can beat Inside Out which is still Pixar's top grosser there ($30M USD), it's still got a bit to go but it's just doing insanely well there right now.

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

This might be my favourite run this year, been following it more than the entire DOM market the last few days

This is why I love markets like China and South Korea. These markets usualy give you bad legs, maybe 1.8-2.5x your OW but if the movie clicks than all of sudden 8-10-20x multi runs become possible. It spices up boxoffice so much

[JustLurking]

If Japan clicks as well asian markets could carry this film to profitability 👀

 

for the love of god disney no quick d+ window. just let this leg out.

Edited June 30, 2023 by JustLurking

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

5 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

Genuinely insane run happening for Elemental right now, I can feel it. Thinking it can beat Inside Out which is still Pixar's top grosser there ($30M USD), it's still got a bit to go but it's just doing insanely well there right now.

At this point I think that's locked, it will be at 2.2-2.3m admissions after this weekend and at least match last weeks weekday numbers (bar Wednesday) taking it to 2.4-2.5m. On this trajectory I don't see it having a sudden drop either next weekend so that would be another ~600k admissions. Mon + Tue would add another 100k at worst for 3.1-3.2m ($24m) before MI7 comes out. Even if it loses a lot of screens it should crawl its way past Inside Out from there.