Weekend Actuals 6/29-7/1

[tidbit]

I wonder with a soft drop if TA can pass SWATH, MK, & Prometheus? Too much too ask given this weeks % drop? And probably continued harsher theater drops ( especially if what discussion and my local theater count looks like is nationwide)

[ecstasy]

Estimates pretty much nailed Ted and MM, but Madea was overestimated by a million.

I thought Madea was always at 26m

[CJohn]

Avengers

[lilmac]

I literally jumped in my chair when I saw TA in the top 10.

[lilmac]

Another good Sunday drop for TA.

[tommycruise]

Teds theater average was higher than most of Uni's blockbusters!

[vc2002]

So TA stayed in the top 10, again?

[BenedictL11]

My analysis:

Ted generates the highest R-rated opener in over a year while Magic Mike still over-performs at #2 coming close to my optimistic prediction. For the first time ever two R-rated hits started higher than $35M OW. Meanwhile, Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection beats expectations. However, People Like Us represents the first wide release since Glee: The Concert Move 3D to open outside of the top 10 but Moonrise Kingdom jumps to 7th place with a sturdy performance.

1. Universal’s Ted premiered at the top spot with an outrageous opening of $54.4M in 3,239 theaters. Averaging a muscular $16,800, the R-rated comedy from the creator of Family Guy earned decent marks from critics but Roger Ebert gave it an outstanding 3.5 out of 4 stars, the first comedy to receive that high mark since last year’s Horrible Bosses. 56% of males and 52% under 30 represented the audience. The achievements that Ted currently has:

• Highest R-rated opener of the year beating “Prometheus” ($51.1m)

• Largest comedy opener of the year beating “21 Jump Street” ($36.3m) by nearly 50%.

• Biggest opener under 3,300 theaters in 4 years since “Sex and the City” ($57m)

• Best non-3D opener behind Universal’s “Snow White and the Huntsman” ($56.2m) and “The Hunger Games” ($152.5m).

Why did it have a wild opening?

• The marketplace starved for comedies as they underperformed for the last three months.

• Although most TV creators do not convert well to movies (Mike Judge’s popular shows, Beavis and Butthead and King of the Hill, Office Space), Ted sounding like Brian and Peter, popular characters from Family Guy attracted audiences into seeing it. Office Space failed to relate any of Judge’s shows in the marketing, a factor of why it flopped in 1999.

• The poster, marketing, commercials and green band trailer even got positive reactions on YouTube like the Restricted trailer, a piece of marketing the FCC will not allow on public TV.

• The female ratio went higher than expected, which drove revenue more than expected and it faced “Magic Mike”, which made the opening weekend even more impressive.

• The midnight grosses even beat the much more hyped “Magic Mike” by 40%, which easily guaranteed a $35M+ opening and better chance to take the top spot over it.

Speaking of “Magic Mike”, despite all the hype, it still topped its opening day by less than $1.5 million. The starpower of Mark Wahlberg (Contraband, a surprise hit from 5 months ago and The Fighter, a critically-acclaimed film that grossed $93M) and Mila Kunis (That 70s Show, Black Swan, Friends with Benefits) added interest. The opening marked a 75% improvement over recent comedy disappointments such as “That’s My Boy” ($13.5m) and The Dictator ($17.4m) combined. Although Universal’s Safe House, The Lorax, and Snow White and the Huntsman easily created more than $100M this year, most of the studio’s films (Big Miracle, American Reunion, The Five-Year Engagement, and the notorious big budget Battleship) flopped domestically. Originally, the studio put Ted on July 13th but after they found out that the anticipated sequel, “GI Joe 2” delayed to March of next year due to reshoots, they took advantage and big gamble to move up 2 weeks earlier. The big gamble paid off and the sleeper hit makes a huge comeback for Universal. Budgeted at only $50M, audiences gave it a high A- CinemaScore and 60,000+ Flixster Users gave it an 88% approval. Those both factors bode well for its legs. As for the final gross, it does face “The Amazing Spider-Man” in its second weekend but I definitely see this ending with at least $175 million domestically. If it does hold on better than expected this month, it has a legitimate chance at $200 million and the highest grosser for the studio this year. No matter what, it definitely will gross $100 million+ domestically, the highest gross ever for Wahlberg in a lead role.

2. Warner Brothers’ Magic Mike debuted with $39.1 million in just 2,930 venues for a tremendous average of $13,354. Directed by Steven Soderbergh, the $7M R-rated comedy-drama starring Channing Tatum (21 Jump Street, coincidentally came on DVD this week and The Vow at domestic grosses over $100m+ back-to-back this year) and Matthew McConaughey (Failure to Launch, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, The Lincoln Lawyer) received solid marks from critics. 73% of females and 57% under 35 signified the audience. The achievements that Magic Mike has:

• Highest R-rated non-3D debut to not reach #1 since “Safe House”

• Best premiere in under 3,000 theaters since Tatum’s “The Vow” ($40.1m)

• Largest opener for WB since “Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows” ($39.6m).

The marketplace starved for female-oriented films as they underperformed for the past two months including The Five-Year Engagement and What to Expect When You’re Expecting, another factor of why it opened outrageously. The marketing of the stripping paid off powerfully with a $19.4M Friday but the false marketing, which the movie did not show as much sexual content as the advertisements did fell an alarming 41.4% (a Twilight-type fall) to $11.4M on Saturday. In spite of the excellent marks critics gave, audiences only gave it a B in CinemaScore and a lukewarm 74% rating based on 33,000+ Flixster users. Because of the rush factor and the mediocre WOM, it will not gross as much as The Vow, let alone 21 Jump Street. However, female-oriented movies tend to have excellent summer weekdays and Tatum should see his 3rd $100M+ hit in a row with a final gross of $100-110 million.

3. Disney/Pixar’s Brave lost 48% to a still healthy $34.1M. The competition of the new releases resulted in the drop closer to “Wall-E” than “Up” So far, the $185M production has amassed up $131.8m in 10 days. As it easily beating “Cars 2”, which lost 2/3 of its audience in its sophomore frame and concluded its race with $191.4m, it will absolutely pass $200M. With the 3D share lower than expected last week and expected to drop even further, I see this finishing in the $225-250M range, a big comeback for Pixar and a second hit in a row for the studio after “The Avengers”.

4. Even with major competition, Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection met in the high end of the industry’s expectations with $25.4m in 2,161 theaters producing a healthy $11,749 average. By comparison, it beat Perry’s earlier film this year, Good Deeds by 73% and slightly exceeded Madea’s “Big Happy Family” by 1%. “Protection” matching its predecessor “Family”, in spite of facing more competition makes this opening even more very impressive. Budgeted at $20M, it marks as the highest 4th place opener of all-time. With summer weekdays boosting that all of his films never benefited from, it will certainly see a gross in the $55-60m range allowing it to earn more than Family.

5. Paramount/Dreamworks’ hit sequel, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted enjoyed another solid decline falling just 39.9% to $11.8m. In only its 4th weekend, it has $180m in the bank. The $145M production has exceeded expectations and made a comeback for animated sequels that disappointed last year including Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2, and one of the biggest flops of all time, Happy Feet Two. The animated sequel has benefited from excellent WOM and summer weekdays. Therefore, it will easily make the most money in the franchise and complete its run with $205-215 million.

6. Fox’s action flop, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter suffered the worst decline in the top ten collapsing 63.2% to $6.1m. In its sophomore frame, it has a miniscule $29m against a $69m budget. With “Amazing Spider-Man” taking 3D screens from it next week, better options for males and terrible WOM, it will not finish much more than $40 million.

7. Focus’ surprise hit, Moonrise Kingdom jumped back into the top ten after an over-performance in wide release. Expanding to 854 locations, the $16M Wes Anderson comedy increased 45% to $4.9m for a healthy $5,769 average, just off 32.9% of its theater average despite more than doubling the theaters from last weekend. So far, the critically-acclaimed sleeper has earned $18.5m in its 5th week release. With excellent WOM and connecting audiences outside of the NY and LA area, it should finish in the range of $40 million +. This will not only allow it to pass the other indie film “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” but also allow it to surpass the much more hyped flops, “Rock of Ages” and “That’s My Boy” domestically.

8. Fox’s Alien prequel, Prometheus got slimed by competition this weekend. Slicing half of its audience to $4.9m, the $130m production has a running cume of $118.3m in its 4th weekend. The total amount domestically will barely match its production cost with just over $130 million.

9. Universal’s Snow White and the Huntsman decelerated 44.4% to $4.5m. The $170m adventure has accumulated $145.7m. A final gross of decent $153m sounds reasonable.

10. Disney’s The Avengers enjoyed the lowest decline in the top ten. Off only 38.4% to $4.4m, the $220M production has taken in a colossal $606.5M. The biggest hit of the year should see a final total of $620 million.

11. Disney/Dreamworks’ People Like Us got off to a rough start with $4.3m in 2,055 locations having its per theater average nearly matching its theater count (a dull $2,071). Budgeted at $16M, critics gave it negative marks, which made its opening even worse considering that these types of dramas usually get good reviews. With the theater average lower than last week’s adult-oriented film, “Seeking a Friend at the End of the World”, it will lose over 1,000 theaters after its sophomore weekend. A total of a disappointing $11-14M seems likely.

12. Sony’s Men in Black 3 decreased 44.9% to $3m. With the $225M sequel collecting $169.7m, it should see a final total gross of $177 million, 21% lower than its budget. Although it fell behind its predecessors (they didn’t have 3D inflated), its worldwide gross will prevent it from flopping.

13. Warner’s musical disappointment, Rock of Ages got crushed by competition collapsing 62.9% to $2.8m. In its third frame, the $75M musical has merely taken $35M and will conclude with $41 million.

14. Sony’s comedy flop, That’s My Boy fell even worse. Tumbling 70.6% to $2.2m and with a miniscule $34.4m in the bank, it will barely pass $40 million not even close to matching its $75M budget.

15. Fox Searchlight’s The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel only slipped 32% to $1.1m. The $12M indie sleeper has a total of $40.4m and will conclude its trip with $45 million. I know that most people did not expect an indie film to beat two movies with big stars. “Hotel” and “Kingdom” have shown that movies with big stars do not always translate to box office success.

16. Focus Features’ flop, Seeking a Friend at the End of the World suffers one of the worst declines of all time (pummeling 72% to only $1.06m) and will finish with a distraught $8 million against a $10m budget.

17. Sony Classics’ $25M “To Rome with Love” expanded to 29 theaters with $692,300 for a decent $23,872 average. Unlike “Kingdom” and “Hotel”, critics gave mediocre reviews despite an all-star cast. With a total of $1.23m, it will finish with $15-20 million, which will fall 65% below last year’s “Midnight in Paris” ($56.8m) as it will unlikely connect with audiences outside of NY area.

[Punishment]

My analysis:

Nicely done!

[Jack Nevada]

I just watched The Shawshank Redemption for the first time and man what I have been missing! Such a emotional, powerful, well made, gorgeously shot movie. I now understand what everyone has been raving about.

[xube]

Maybe they're deciding who they want to fudge, TA to push it's run higher, or Brave, so it doesn't fall below Mad3

Yeah, with actuals Avengers stays in the top 10. Initial estimates had it below People Like Us at 11. Avengers final week in the top 10. Great run.

[Rthmessiah]

Top 12 theatres engagement (gets published in Variety)wkend 29/6-1/71-Empire 25, New York City NY 197,766(Ted)2-Union Square 14, New York city NY 183,845(Ted)3-AMC Burbank 30, Burbank CA 158,180(Ted)4-AMC Garden State 16, Paramus NJ 148,147(Ted)5-AMC boston Commons 19, Boston MA 134,340(Ted)6-Elcapitan, Hollywood CA 134,078(Brave)7-Regal Irvine Spectrum 21, Irvine CA 119,762(Ted)8-AMC Orange 30, Orange CA 117,461(Ted)9-Pacific Winnetka Stadium 21, Chatsworth CA 116,845(Ted)10-Pacific Arclight , Sherman Oaks CA 116,352(Ted)11-Pacific Arclight, Hollywood CA 113,209(MM)12-Regal Laufman Astoria 14, Astoria NY 110,552(Ted)