The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[FishMB]

Not bad considering it was July 4 and majority of families were grilling out and shooting fireworks.

[baumer]

Baumer you didn't listen to me!I told you to make it a 250 M club.

Yes, I know. But like I said, I'm stubborn and stupid sometimes.

[filmscholar]

They must have confused TASM for TF1.That had strong WOM and was not a fanboy lead movie.The drop is fine it will make around $130-$140M 6 day and almost the same OS and should go on to hit $260m DOM and $650m+ OS.

Also TF was an original and new film and people have been waiting decades for a TF live action movie. This is the 4th Film of a franchise that the last film dropped what 5 years ago.

[MovieMan89]

People were expecting an increase cause of TF1 numbers seem to be the comparison but they did not open in the same day. Again I know there is a section of people that want this film to fail but it's doing pretty good so far. 22-24 would only be a small drop from 27 which is the number minus midnight.

I disagree. It shouldn't have decreased at all minus the midnight number if it was doing well. Every other movie will have a sizable bump for the 4th when numbers come in a bet, and this should have had a small bump (minus midnights) or at least stayed even because of the 4th. The fact that it dropped so much on a holiday is only setting it up for an even bigger Thursday drop leading into a ho hum weekend that may barely touch 50m. Hardly impressive for a movie that opened to a 35m OD if you ask me. Edited July 5, 2012 by MovieMan89

[baumer]

I don't know about that, the Heat has been brutal on the East Coast, over 95 Degree weather (Over 100 heat index) for 8 straight days, Also the East Coast got battered by a huge storm that people still don't have power. If a winter storm affected Avatar's opening gross, why can't heat affect gross? Just cause there AC in the theater doesn't mean people want to go outside. I'm not saying it was the biggest factor, I'm just saying it could of been a factor. I'm sure a lot of families stayed inside for 4th of July. As for the number the drop is actually lower minus midnight's.TF1 After 2 days and previews: 65 MillionTASM After 2 Days: 57-60

Snowstorms affect your ability to get around and your safety and your driving ability. Heat doesn't. Your car does not skid out of control if you go out on a hot day.

[lab276]

I disagree. It shouldn't have decreased at all minus the midnight number if it was doing well. Every other movie will have a sizable bump for the 4th when numbers come in a bet, and this should have had a small bump (minus midnights) or at least stayed even because of the 4th. The fact that it dropped so much on a holiday is only setting it up for an even bigger Thursday drop leading into a ho hum weekend that may bare;y touch 50m. Hardly impressive for a movie that opened to a 35m OD if you ask me.

Ted and MM dropped too apparently, so at least it's not alone.

[MovieMan89]

Yes, I know. But like I said, I'm stubborn and stupid sometimes.

Hell forget 250, I think you would have still won with an under 225m club.

[Magic]

:popcorn:

[Ariadne]

I'm genuinely shocked by that drop - that's a huge drop.

[baumer]

People were expecting an increase cause of TF1 numbers seem to be the comparison but they did not open in the same day. Again I know there is a section of people that want this film to fail but it's doing pretty good so far. 22-24 would only be a small drop from 27 which is the number minus midnight.

I'm on the loonies side for this one, the drop is fine, but just to be fair, it is a holiday Wednesday and most films will go up. So this does mean that it was massively frontloaded. So the road ahead at this point is unclear.

[filmscholar]

Snowstorms affect your ability to get around and your safety and your driving ability. Heat doesn't. Your car does not skid out of control if you go out on a hot day.

This is true but people still don't like to go out into the Heat. AC in the comfort of your own home> going out to watch a movie.

[filmnerdjamie]

I'll start the coffee for everyone...

[baumer]

Not bad considering it was July 4 and majority of families were grilling out and shooting fireworks.

Yes, but in 2007 everything went up.http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2007-07-04&track=transformers06.htm

[baumer]

Hell forget 250, I think you would have still won with an under 225m club.

If it finishes with 225 or less, then I'll consider my club a moral victory.

[baumer]

This is true but people still don't like to go out into the Heat. AC in the comfort of your own home> going out to watch a movie.

Wel, in my personal experience, I haven't seen it like that. The theaters I go to are packed if it is a new release. Using your logic, do you think Twilight's or TDK's opening days would be less busy if it was 95 degrees outside?

[MovieMan89]

If it finishes with 225 or less, then I'll consider my club a moral victory.

I honestly think it's heading to a 220-230m finish, not even wishful thinking.

[filmscholar]

Wel, in my personal experience, I haven't seen it like that. The theaters I go to are packed if it is a new release. Using your logic, do you think Twilight's or TDK's opening days would be less busy if it was 95 degrees outside?

It depends on how serve the weather is. The East coast has been on a heat warning for the last 8 days, the government has told people it's best to stay inside. Also we can all agree a lot of demand was burnt off on OD. I'm not saying the drop is spectacular obviously not but I'm saying it's possible people stayed home for cookouts and fireworks over rushing to the theater. I expect the weekend to do very good business for TASM. Also if other films drop today it will show a good trend that Spidey wasn't alone. These numbers are estimates, Most OD estimates were off between 3-7 Million, if it has a 24 or 25 number I think that would be a solid 2nd day drop from the non-mid night number. Again it's a Holiday, I agree, we all would of liked to see an increase but we are in a different time and different market in comparison to 2007.

[filmnerdjamie]

If it finishes with 225 or less, then I'll consider my club a moral victory.

Sounds like something I told you...

[filmscholar]

RUMORS FROM SONY: THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN WILL HAVE NOT 1 BUT 2 SEQUELS.We know about May 2014 so I guess they are obviously planning a New Trilogy and it if follows the last trilogy then:2014: TASM 22017: TASM 3

Edited July 5, 2012 by filmscholar

[baumer]

RTH said that MM, TED and ASM all dropped but everything else went up.