SAT/Wkd Numbers (EST TASM $23.8m(+15%)/$65m; Savages $5.6m(-2%)/$16.2m; KP 2.5m(-8%)/7.2m

[Samson]

They are going to need more then a better villain for any increase.

Agreed. Many here are just taking a 20% increase for granted. Spider-Man is dropping domestically, every time. How they handle the villain next time is what can stop the bleeding.

[JackO]

Yet you only predicted 232M. Now your just trolling. BKB's welcoming you to the club.

Yet you predicted 300M which was dead yesterday

[Samson]

Within 4 and 8 days respectively away from TF's release date.

TDKR comes out 17 days after ASM.

This kinda goes against your point if we are talking legs. Later is easier to cut into than earlier.

[JackO]

Transformers had to go up against Ratatouille and Harry Potter.

Within 4 and 8 days respectively away from TF's release date.

TDKR comes out 17 days after ASM.

ASM has more time to breathe than Transformers ever did. Alot more.

.

Transformers was a cultural zeitgeist. TASM is not. Ice Age comes out the very next weekend. Something TF did not have to face.

[Lordmandeep]

Ice age will not be that big it will open to 50-60 million.Looking back films fall around 45-55% from ID4 week.

[druv10]

Yet you predicted 300M which was dead yesterday

I'm not having a meltdown unlike someone else.

[Shawn Robbins]

Transformers was a cultural zeitgeist. TASM is not. Ice Age comes out the very next weekend. Something TF did not have to face.

Yea, by no stretch of the imagination does TASM have it easier than TF1.

[kayumanggi]

Ted is WAY more interesting to watch than TASM.

TED is more interesting to watch than 95% of the summer films.

[John Marston]

Transformers was a cultural zeitgeist. TASM is not. Ice Age comes out the very next weekend. Something TF did not have to face.

Ice Age is bigger competition than a Harry Potter film?????

[Dragon]

TED is more interesting to watch than 95% of the summer films.

MM better be that 5%

[JackO]

I'm not having a meltdown unlike someone else.

[JackO]

Ice Age is bigger competition than a Harry Potter film?????

Replace Harry Potter with TDKR

[Jim Shorts]

I'll tell you a quick story about Farrell, he is a definite humanitarian as well. He's been coming to TIFF for years and one year, he found a homeless man living on the streets in Toronto. Farel not only bought him a meal, he bought him a life. He gave him clothes food and some money. He took him on a shopping spree at an expensive store in T.O. This was the first time they met. The second time, a month later he came back and he saw the same guy again, still homeless. This time he paid rent for him for a year in an apartment and the man has been on the road to recovery ever since.http://www.looktothestars.org/news/372-colin-farrell-makes-homeless-mans-yearhttp://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/entertainment/movies/article/16671--colin-farrell-helps-toronto-homeless-man-turn-life-aroundI'll see any and every movie Farrell is in because of this act of generosity.

And that homeless man's name was baumer. And the rest my friends is history.

[Samson]

Ice Age is bigger competition than a Harry Potter film?????

Overseas it is, if HP6 & Ice Age 3 are anything to go by.But no, the comparison being made here is Ratatouille/Ice Age 4 and HP5/TDKR.

[Deep Wang]

TDKR comes out 17 days after ASM.

ASM has more time to breathe than Transformers ever did. Alot more.

.

TDKR is going to demolish everything in its path. It is the exact same target audience as TASM! Not to mention that it is following one of the most loved and talked about movies last decade.

TASM doesn't have a chance in hell to coexist.

[kayumanggi]

I don't think anyone, even me, are saying anything about it being a failure overall. Just that the domestic numbers will come in softer than some had hoped.

...and higher than some have wished.

[John Marston]

TDKR is going to demolish everything in its path. It is the exact same target audience as TASM! Not to mention that it is following one of the most loved and talked about movies last decade.TASM doesn't have a chance in hell to coexist.

that doesn;t mean though that ASM is going to totally die like many people here think it will.

[Gideon]

What the hell? Why are you analyzing Kitsch's appeal and even comparing it to Brad Pitt, an actually phenomenal actor? Kitsch hasn't shown he has any acting ability in his blockbusters and outside of America this year he was an unknown, there were some posters thinking he would add as a draw and I was like, WHO IS HE? Despite Battleship and John Carter doing decent OS numbers, there is absolutely nothing that says it was Kitsch who was the draw because, newsflash, these films do gangbusters OS all the time. Might as well say Logan Lerman star of Percy Jackson is a draw OS or that girl from the Golden Compass (lol). Kitsch has nothing to do with their success and no one cares about him even now. If they can't even name Mark Ruffalo, Chris Evans and Hemsworth or Jeremy Renner why would they honestly give a damn about Kitsch?

Sorry if this is coming off very harsh, I mean, I don't honestly have anything against him like I do with no-talent Worthington, but I just find it, again I apologize, laughable that anyone would even analyze Kitsch, his appeal and whatsoever, it seems very naive.

So true!

I thought the same thing but you wrote it very well.

Comparing Kitsch to Pitt is beyond funny: ridiculous.

Just from his little bit Thelma&Louise, Brad Pitt jumped into the "StarMap".

[Fake]

Its not like TDKR opens and other movies stop playing....DH2 opened with 170M yet TF3 dropped under 55%. TDKR will open in same region, maybe a bit higher.

[Samson]

TDKR is going to demolish everything in its path. It is the exact same target audience as TASM! Not to mention that it is following one of the most loved and talked about movies last decade.

Just had flashbacks to Hellboy 2's 70%+ 2nd weekend drop. The rest of its weekend drops after were 50% or more. It really was a massacre.