SAT/Wkd Numbers (EST TASM $23.8m(+15%)/$65m; Savages $5.6m(-2%)/$16.2m; KP 2.5m(-8%)/7.2m

[John Marston]

6-day total: 135m2nd wknd: 26m (Ice Age)3rd wknd: 12m (TDKR)4th wknd: 7m...and so onThis eventually comes out to 250-255m. Not a complete flop but surely a disappointment, reboot or not. Sony did not give ASM a 230m production budget with the hope of making only 250-260m in the U.S.

there is no reason to think ASM will drop that much next week. It could, but it probably won't.

[cory]

I'm guessing something like this (best case scenario):64 (140)32 (200)12 (230)8 (245)5 (255)3 (260)Total around 270.

Edited July 7, 2012 by cory

[tonytr87]

a midweek opening doesn't make a second weekend drop worse, it usually makes it better

You would be wrong, kiddo. 5/6-day openings enable more people to see a movie in a shorter amount of time. A 50-55% second weekend drop is absolutely reasonable for this. It's par the course for this genre.

[hasanahmad]

how can anyone defend this pathetic behavior many are showing here? We are happy that the film looks like it is doing better than what the Wed/Thursday grosses were indicating and we are called loonies for doing so. Bullshit

lowered expectations due to wed/thu grosses doesnt mean its doing better than before.

[tonytr87]

there is no reason to think ASM will drop that much next week. It could, but it probably won't.

Are you delusional? 50-55% drops happen for superhero movies all the time, even those with great WOM, which ASM does not have. Edited July 7, 2012 by tonytr87

[kayumanggi]

Except mid 200s is still horrible for a Spidey film in 3D. It will end up being a good 40%+ drop in admissions from SM3, if not worse.

Could have been worse. This was predicted to FAIL right?

[druv10]

6-day total: 135m2nd wknd: 26m (Ice Age)3rd wknd: 12m (TDKR)4th wknd: 7m...and so onThis eventually comes out to 250-255m. Not a complete flop but surely a disappointment, reboot or not. Sony did not give ASM a 230m production budget with the hope of making only 250-260m in the U.S.

Why do you have 60% drop on 2nd weekend?

[tonytr87]

Could have been worse. This was predicted to FAIL right?

It was predicted to make mid-200s, which is only a disappointment for the studio financially, but a failure for a Spider-man movie.

[tonytr87]

Why do you have 60% drop on 2nd weekend?

I'm predicting 60m for the 3-day, not 64m.

[John Marston]

You would be wrong, kiddo. 5/6-day openings enable more people to see a movie in a shorter amount of time. A 50-55% second weekend drop is absolutely reasonable for this. It's par the course for this genre.

You're ignoring the fact that some people who would have seen it on the weekend saw it on a weekday instead. A midweek opening is not the same type of opening it would have plus more.

[druv10]

Are you delusional? 50-55% drops happen for superhero movies all the time, even those with great WOM, which ASM does not have.

It's looking at 64M+ weekend so why will it only make 26M next weekend? Any particular reason for the 60% drop?

[John Marston]

It's looking at 64M+ weekend so why will it only make 26M next weekend? Any particular reason for the 60% drop?

Because according to people here the movie sucks and is getting bad WOM

[kayumanggi]

And loonies were convinced it was going to do at least 170M 6 day after its OD.

LIST THEM.

[Fake]

I'm predicting 60m for the 3-day, not 64m.

Then you don't know much, do you?

[druv10]

I'm predicting 60m for the 3-day, not 64m.

Can you breakdown how it only makes 60M from 20.7M Friday? What kind of Saturday increase/Sunday decrease?

[Samson]

Then you don't know much, do you?

These are going to be some fun actuals.

[kayumanggi]

Because according to people here the movie sucks and is getting bad WOM

True. A- cinemascore. A cinemascore under 18. 84% | 4.2/5.0 Flixster score. 7.8 on IMDBBut hey, these are wrong. Let us believe these people. They know more.

[MovieMan89]

6-day total: 135m2nd wknd: 26m (Ice Age)3rd wknd: 12m (TDKR)4th wknd: 7m...and so onThis eventually comes out to 250-255m. Not a complete flop but surely a disappointment, reboot or not. Sony did not give ASM a 230m production budget with the hope of making only 250-260m in the U.S.

This is pretty much exactly the trajectory I'm expecting for it as well. Ho hum WOM and Ice Age stealing kids will cause a big 2nd weekend drop too. Plus comic book movies always drop 50%+ in their 2nd weekends unless WOM is through the roof or something.

[rockNrollaDIM]

This.

I compared Kitsch to Brad Pitt once too - and Pitt has had a LOT of bombs in his career. Yet Pitt remains a huge star.

Like Pitt, Kitsch seems to have a lot of international appeal (or at least his films do). Thanks to international business, both "John Carter" and "Battleship" have approached or surpassed $300M worldwide. And that suddenly makes the fact that these films bombed domestically a bit more tolerable. Add in DVD/Blu-Ray, NetFlix, Red Box rentals, cable and TV rights and these films might even turn a bit of a profit for their respective studios (despite Disney claiming it will write off $200M, which I don't believe at all - it was a shareholder trick).

"Savages" may not be a big hit, but Kitsch will not suffer, given the director and the fact that an Oscar winner is in the movie. The other two Kitsch films were big action/adventure movies. Kitsch definitely won't suffer because of "Battleship" as that was more about the alien invasion side. Had the film been successful, I don't think Kitsch would have gained a lot either - after all, is anyone more impressed with Shia LeBouf because of "Transformers"?

That said, I'm sure Kitsch will be looking at his next few movies very carefully. He should hope he's asked to play his Gambit character in another X-Men movie. Those are at least mild hits domestically ($140M+) and he needs that now.

There is so much wrong with this. Comparing TAYLOR KITSCH--- TAYLOR FUUCCCKKIINNGGGGG KITSCH!--- to BRAD PITT?!?!?!??! BRAD FUCKING PITT?????

:rofl: :rofl:

Taylor Kitsch has "INTERNATIONAL APPEAL"?????

[hasanahmad]

Can you breakdown how it only makes 60M from 20.7M Friday? What kind of Saturday increase/Sunday decrease?

20.7 M Friday22 M Saturday19 M Sunday61.7 Weekend136.7 Weekend