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2015 Discussion Thread: Universal wins the calendar year | SW: TFA - biggest film domestic, 3rd biggest film worldwide

By kayumanggi, in Box Office Discussion

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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Well, the thing with Avatar is....that film had James Cameron.

And I'm not sure if J.J Abrams is that big of a draw as a director like Cameron is.

SW: EP7 could end up as the 5th place DOM of all time.

 

People won't see this because of Abrams. They'll see this because it's STAR WARS.

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cmbbox2390 Sleeper Hit

cmbbox2390

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Here are my UPDATES. I might do one more in just a couple of weeks before HOTEL TRANSLYVANIA 2.

***

Here are my top 5 predictions for the rest of the year.

Opening Weekend, Domestic and Worldwide.

Ranked by Domestic Total

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

OW: 130m

DOM: 780m

WW: 1.95b

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

OW: 148m

DOM: 395m

WW: 902m

3. Spectre

OW: 79m

DOM: 296m

WW: 1.08m

4. The Good Dinosaur

OW: 67m

DOM: 252

WW: 834m

5. Hotel Transylvania 2

OW: 52m

DOM: 167m

WW: 572m

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langer Box Office Gold

langer

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First, comparing the STAR WARS brand to those movies is just wrong. Episodes I - III were also summer releases. I am not saying this will do a 10x multiplier. I'm not even saying a 4x multiplier is a lock. All I want to say is we should not be closing our minds to possibilities. This could open to 100 M and make 500 M total or open to 200 M and finish with 700 M. Anything can happen.

 

In this case, I predict 300M OW and 1.5B DOM...you know anything can happen.   :D

 

To be honest,  you compared SW to Avatar first...which is also very wrong.  

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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In this case, I predict 300M OW and 1.5B DOM...you know anything can happen.   :D

 

To be honest,  you compared SW to Avatar first...which is also very wrong.  

 

I did not compare it. I just used AVATAR as an example that a 4, 5, 6, etc multiplier is possible to happen.

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langer Box Office Gold

langer

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I did not compare it. I just used AVATAR as an example that a 4, 5, 6, etc multiplier is possible to happen.

 

4X multiplier is probable, while 5X-6X is possible but very very unlikely.  Just remember that SW is gonna burn a lot of demand on its OW, it is SW after all.  

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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4X multiplier is probable, while 5X-6X is possible but very very unlikely.  Just remember that SW is gonna burn a lot of demand on its OW, it is SW after all.  

 

You don't really burn a lot of demand on a December OW. Films can open big and still be leggy.

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langer Box Office Gold

langer

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You don't really burn a lot of demand during on a December OW. Films can open big and still be leggy.

 

On average, 25% of the gross (4X multiplier) for films released between December 10th and December 20th is earned on OW. There's also a big difference between an original movie and a blockbuster sequel when you compare multipliers.  Original movies usually get better multipliers than sequels because of the brand recognition and pre release hype of sequels (demand). 

 

I've listed in another post the biggest December OW and their multipliers.  Only three Friday OW achieved more than 4X+ multiplier:

 

Avatar : 9.9X - original movie, first 3D blockbuster

Narnia : 4.4X - original movie

Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7X multiplier - sequel, from a 40M$ OW (I still don't understand how this movie opened so low...)

 

Look, I understand that anything can happen, I'm just saying some predictions are out of sync with how box office works in general.  SW has proven time and time again since 2002 that it's a frontloaded franchise with below average multipliers and an average multiplier in December is roughly 4X.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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On average, 25% of the gross (4X multiplier) for films released between December 10th and December 20th is earned on OW. There's also a big difference between an original movie and a blockbuster sequel when you compare multipliers.  Original movies usually get better multipliers than sequels because of the brand recognition and pre release hype of sequels (demand). 

 

I've listed in another post the biggest December OW and their multipliers.  Only three Friday OW achieved more than 4X+ multiplier:

 

Avatar : 9.9X - original movie, first 3D blockbuster

Narnia : 4.4X - original movie

Sherlock Holmes 2 : 4.7X multiplier - sequel, from a 40M$ OW (I still don't understand how this movie opened so low...)

 

Look, I understand that anything can happen, I'm just saying some predictions are out of sync with how box office works in general.  SW has proven time and time again since 2002 that it's a frontloaded franchise with below average multipliers and an average multiplier in December is roughly 4X.

 

There have been a lot of out of sync box office performances this year. It has proven time and time again that just like what you said, anything can happen. I am not calling a 4x or 5x multiplier is a lock. I'm just open to that idea happening. We have never had a 100 M opener or a SW movie opening in the holiday season. It's really difficult to gauge how it will perform. Will it break the trend of zero 100 M openers in December? How will holiday shopping and other activities affect it? Will it be really frontloaded? How will the competition affect it?

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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TOP_15.png

STUDIO.png

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RELEASE SCHEDULE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEPTEMBER

18 | MAZE RUNNER: THE SCORCH TRIALS | CAPTIVE | EVEREST | BLACK MASS | SICARIO

25 | HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA II | THE INTERN | THE GREEN INFERNO

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OCTOBER

02 | THE MARTIAN | THE WALK

09 | STEVE JOBS | PAN

16 | BRIDGE OF SPIES | GOOSEBUMPS | CRIMSON PEAK

23 | PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE GHOST DIMENSION | JEM AND THE HOLOGRAMS | THE LAST WITCH HUNTER | BURNT | ROCK THE KASBAH

30 | SCOUTS GUIDE TO THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE | OUR BRAND IS CRISIS | AUTOBAHN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOVEMBER

06 | THE PEANUTS MOVIE | SPECTRE | THE OUTSKIRTS

13 | RINGS | BY THE SEA | THE 33 | MY ALL AMERICAN

20 | THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY II | THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

27 | THE GOOD DINOSAUR | VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN | THE NIGHT BEFORE | CREED

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DECEMBER

04 | KRAMPUS

11 | IN THE HEART OF THE SEA

18 | STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | SISTERS

25 | ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP | JOY | THE REVENANT | DADDY'S HOME | CONCUSSION | POINT BREAK | THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Edited by kayumanggi
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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

TOP_15.png

STUDIO.png

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RELEASE SCHEDULE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEPTEMBER

25 | HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA II | THE INTERN | THE GREEN INFERNO

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OCTOBER

02 | THE MARTIAN | THE WALK

09 | STEVE JOBS | PAN

16 | BRIDGE OF SPIES | GOOSEBUMPS | CRIMSON PEAK

23 | PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE GHOST DIMENSION | JEM AND THE HOLOGRAMS | THE LAST WITCH HUNTER | BURNT | ROCK THE KASBAH

30 | SCOUTS GUIDE TO THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE | OUR BRAND IS CRISIS | AUTOBAHN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOVEMBER

06 | THE PEANUTS MOVIE | SPECTRE | THE OUTSKIRTS

13 | RINGS | BY THE SEA | THE 33 | MY ALL AMERICAN | LOVE THE COOPERS

20 | THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY II | THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

27 | THE GOOD DINOSAUR | VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN | CREED | THE DANISH GIRL | THE NIGHT BEFORE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DECEMBER

04 | KRAMPUS | MACBETH

11 | THE BIG SHORT | IN THE HEART OF THE SEA

18 | STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | SISTERS

25 | ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP | JOY | THE REVENANT | DADDY'S HOME | CONCUSSION | POINT BREAK | THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Edited by kayumanggi
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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

TOP_15.png

STUDIO.png

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RELEASE SCHEDULE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OCTOBER

02 | THE MARTIAN | THE WALK

09 | STEVE JOBS | PAN

16 | BRIDGE OF SPIES | GOOSEBUMPS | CRIMSON PEAK

23 | PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE GHOST DIMENSION | JEM AND THE HOLOGRAMS | THE LAST WITCH HUNTER | BURNT | ROCK THE KASBAH

30 | SCOUTS GUIDE TO THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE | OUR BRAND IS CRISIS | AUTOBAHN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOVEMBER

06 | THE PEANUTS MOVIE | SPECTRE | THE OUTSKIRTS

13 | BY THE SEA | THE 33 | MY ALL AMERICAN | LOVE THE COOPERS

20 | THE NIGHT BEFORE | THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY II | THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

27 | THE GOOD DINOSAUR | VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN | CREED | THE DANISH GIRL | THE NIGHT BEFORE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DECEMBER

04 | KRAMPUS | MACBETH

11 | THE BIG SHORT | IN THE HEART OF THE SEA

18 | STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | SISTERS

25 | ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP | JOY | THE REVENANT | DADDY'S HOME | CONCUSSION | POINT BREAK | THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Edited by kayumanggi
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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

TOP_15.png

STUDIO.png

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RELEASE SCHEDULE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OCTOBER

09 | STEVE JOBS | PAN

16 | BRIDGE OF SPIES | GOOSEBUMPS | CRIMSON PEAK | WOODLAWN

23 | PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE GHOST DIMENSION | JEM AND THE HOLOGRAMS | THE LAST WITCH HUNTER | BURNT | ROCK THE KASBAH | SUFFRAGETTE

30 | SCOUTS GUIDE TO THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE | OUR BRAND IS CRISIS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOVEMBER

06 | THE PEANUTS MOVIE | SPECTRE | THE OUTSKIRTS

13 | BY THE SEA | THE 33 | MY ALL AMERICAN | LOVE THE COOPERS

20 | THE NIGHT BEFORE | THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY II | THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

27 | THE GOOD DINOSAUR | VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN | CREED | THE DANISH GIRL

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DECEMBER

04 | KRAMPUS | MACBETH

11 | THE BIG SHORT | IN THE HEART OF THE SEA

18 | STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | SISTERS

25 | ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP | JOY | THE REVENANT | DADDY'S HOME | CONCUSSION | POINT BREAK | THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Edited by kayumanggi
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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

TOP_15.png

STUDIO.png

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RELEASE SCHEDULE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OCTOBER

16 | BRIDGE OF SPIES | GOOSEBUMPS | CRIMSON PEAK | WOODLAWN

23 | PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE GHOST DIMENSION | JEM AND THE HOLOGRAMS | THE LAST WITCH HUNTER | BURNT | ROCK THE KASBAH | SUFFRAGETTE

30 | SCOUTS GUIDE TO THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE | OUR BRAND IS CRISIS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOVEMBER

06 | THE PEANUTS MOVIE | SPECTRE | THE OUTSKIRTS

13 | BY THE SEA | THE 33 | MY ALL AMERICAN | LOVE THE COOPERS

20 | THE NIGHT BEFORE | THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY II | THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

27 | THE GOOD DINOSAUR | VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN | CREED | THE DANISH GIRL

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DECEMBER

04 | KRAMPUS | MACBETH

11 | THE BIG SHORT | IN THE HEART OF THE SEA

18 | STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE ROAD CHIP | SISTERS

25 | JOY | THE REVENANT | DADDY'S HOME | CONCUSSION | POINT BREAK | THE HATEFUL EIGHT

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