China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Rudolf]

Can this beat Frozen's number in Japan?

the fun thing is, that because Japan has so few cinema theaters (and Japanese people are prepared to wait in line for their turn), TF4 makes more money here 14 days than FROZEN made there in 14 weeks

[RaidensSword]

TF4 is being sued again for, among other things, Michael Bay geography http://www.deadline.com/2014/07/chinese-transformers-sponsor-to-sue-paramount-movie-breaks-avatar-record/

This is incredible. If a company pays you a huge amount of money dependant on you fulfilling certain criteria and you don't, they should get s full refund in any walk of life. It just smacks of pure greed that paramount and the people who took the money would try to compromise after they already failed to deliver. Also, putting it on the dvds and future releases is so poor, especially when you consider how many people would have seen it in the cinema. That opportunity is gone now.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I hope it doesn't make that much money.

It is sad to have movies that don't have great stories making a lot of money. This tells hollywood that they can release movies with crappy stories and there are countries out there like China that will help the studio and the movie make a billion dollars WW.

 

Don't get me wrong, I liked Transformers 4 for its action scenes and the graphics but in terms of story I would definitely put it under the top 100 movies I liked. I wouldn't say its a bad story but for what its worth I can only watch this once and get it over with. Whereas when I watch a movie and like it, I will also buy the Blu-ray cuz I know I will watch it again in the future.

Who can say that Transformers 4 touched their heart  ... I bet if this movie wasn't shot so much in China it would have earned at least $50 to $100 million less.

 

Its not just me saying that the story is not upto expectations.

The user rating on rotten tomatoes is at 58% from 176,000 people (The critic rating stinks at 17%): http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/transformers_age_of_extinction/

The user rating on IMDB (which is generally higher in the first month of release) is at 6.4/10 from 45,000 people: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2109248/?ref_=hm_cht_t1

First of all I highly doubt Hollywood studios are that dumb. After all, there is only one Transformers in the world. They of course know their pictures (with crappy stories or not) are no match to TF in China.

 

Secondly, it is possible that TF4  would not do any less than what it is doing if it did not feature so many Chinese elements. TF franchise has huge advantages in nature in China compared with normal blockbusters. ( See my previous post a few pages back).

 

China yealy theater admissions:

 

2010 ----- 284m

2011 ----- 372m

2012 ----- 472m

2013 ----- 620m

2014 ----- 800m *EST(+472m from 2011; +180m from 2013)

 

Clearly, in 2014, averagely there are 15m new audience per month compared with the last year (2013), and 39m new audience per month compared with 2011.

 

What does this mean ?

 

It means:

 

If all those 39 million new audience decides to flock to the theaters to catch a movie during the matter of 30 days this June/July. They probably and mostly likely would have chosen TF4. Actually they did. They come to the theaters for the first time in their life. And you expect them to pick Citizen Kane but not a Transformers film ?

 

TF franchise admissions:

 

TF1 ------- 9m

TF2 ------- 14m

TF3 ------- 28m

TF4 ------- 47m (1900m BO.; 40~41 ATP)

 

From TF1 to TF4, this franchise surely lost a certain amount of following (those who were bored by Bayformers) but it also gained much more new audience.

 

TF3 did 1100m in summer 2011. Today the market is 115% large than then. So, even without all those Chinese elements, theoretically TF4 could have done 2300m ($380m), instead of 1900m (north of $300m), and still appears to be normal in the standard of a TF film.

 

Does that sound scary to you ? 

 

Rottentomatoes ? what's that ? Can it be eaten ? 

 

Millions of new film audience in China do not know and do not care about what the critics say. They've never been to the theaters before. They probably dont bother to watch any more movies back at home too. They now go to the theaters less than twice a year. And when they go, they just want to be entertained and have their money well spent.

 

This is the main difference between the Chinese film market and any other film market: millions of new audience every year. In US and other mature markets, the yearly theater admissions are practically shrinking. Studios find them themselves dealing with old (and hard-to-please) moviegoers who are becoming less and less interested in going to the movies.

 

But can you blame the studios ? Business needs to go on. People (in the showbiz) need to keep their jobs. And (other) people need to be entertained. But not everyone likes to study New Wave Arthouse films. Big budget high profile "Hollywood" movies with easy storylines and visual spectaculars are still needed. If only they can find some new growth points of profits.

 

Like it or not, China and other developing markets are, at least a large major part of, the future of global film industry. Assuming no World Wars, China's film market will continue to grow at notable high rates in another 10 years or so. It wont reach any steady state until there are 2.5B year admissions (2x population) and 50000 screens. And sooner or later, China will have its own post-theater and merchandising film market, which could be much bigger than the box office market.

 

TF4 doing $300m is a good thing. It shows the market potential for a single movie. And it is a sign that gives the industry confidence. Everyone can see it that, if TF4 can make $300m, then soon the second and third $300m grosser will emerge. By soon, I mean in three years, there gotta to be other local or Hollywood films that match or outgross TF4. (Yes, sooner or later, Marvel's Avengers, Jurrasic World/Park, Pacific Rim, Warcraft, Star Wars ...... will all follow TF4 to do $300m in China. You just need to wait and see. ) Thus new screens will continue to be added. Investors will continue to come.

 

You may think TF4 doesnot deserve the 2B $300m. But since even real crappy film like The Monekey King can do $165m, crappy TV show like Dad Where Are We Going can do $100m, I say TF4 deserves every penny it makes.

 

You may think the tastes of Chinese audience are so low. But this is just what happens when millions of them firstly enter the theaters the first. Critics and senior movie lovers on Rottentomates probably have seen thousand films. So naturally they hate Transformers. But general audience, especially general Chinese audience, probably have only seen less than one hundred or fifty films in their life.

 

Again, like it or not, It's unlikely for Transformers's admissions to decline in China until there is no more new cinema audience. 

[alee7915]

He is watching you, firedeep!  He wants at least $100M from China alone!!!

 

Edited July 9, 2014 by A K A

[alee7915]

Dawn of the planet of the apes should be a hit in China since the Chinese love the Monkey King. 

 

[Alex Bennett]

Dawn of the planet of the apes should be a hit in China since the Chinese love the Monkey King. 

 

Apes are ugly. I'd rather watch Tiny Times.

[Olive]

Tuesday Revised

TF4 52M  1480M

TBG 25.5M 455M

Malef 3.2M 276M

 

Thursday showtimes est

TF4 29.4%

Old Boys 20.9%

TBG 17.6%

Roco Kingdom 10.1%

...

Malef 2%

[baumer]

Are Weds estimates out yet?

[Olive]

Are Weds estimates out yet?

Daily est usually are out at 10AM PST

Edited July 9, 2014 by Olive Maximoff

[KATCH-2D2]

Tuesday Revised

TF4 52M  1480M

TBG 25.5M 455M

Malef 3.2M 276M

 

Thursday showtimes est

TF4 29.4%

Old Boys 20.9%

TBG 17.6%

Roco Kingdom 10.1%

...

Malef 2%

So with that drop in showtimes and new releases how much TF4 can do this week? 60%drop or bigger?

[KATCH-2D2]

Don't get me wrong, I liked Transformers 4 for its action scenes and the graphics but in terms of story I would definitely put it under the top 100 movies I liked. I wouldn't say its a bad story but for what its worth I can only watch this once and get it over with. Whereas when I watch a movie and like it, I will also buy the Blu-ray cuz I know I will watch it again in the future.

Who can say that Transformers 4 touched their heart  ... I bet if this movie wasn't shot so much in China it would have earned at least $50 to $100 million less.

 

Its not just me saying that the story is not upto expectations.

The user rating on rotten tomatoes is at 58% from 176,000 people (The critic rating stinks at 17%): http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/transformers_age_of_extinction/

The user rating on IMDB (which is generally higher in the first month of release) is at 6.4/10 from 45,000 people: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2109248/?ref_=hm_cht_t1

A comment like this always gets on my nerves.

 

You can say you don't like the movie and give reasons why but there is a difference between stating your opinion opjectively and saying something in a condescending, "I'm on my pedestal looking down on your obviously incorrect views" kind of way which is what you just did.

 

You know what 58% of user rating means? It means 6 out of 10 people actually enjoy it. YOU are just one of the 4, not even the majority. And I'm pretty sure there'll be people buying TF4 blu-ray to watch it again when it comes out, it might even outsell the better movies that 'touch your heart', oh the horror!

[Olive]

So with that drop in showtimes and new releases how much TF4 can do this week? 60%drop or bigger?

Yeah, I think around that drop.

[alee7915]

Wednesday early

Transformers 4 43.7M/$7.05M,  Total : 1523M/$245.65M

[Fake]

So it will hit 250m tomorrow , on Thursday. Friday number would be interesting.

Edited July 9, 2014 by Fake

[BobbyJohn]

Malf gets kicked out on Friday or Monday?

[alee7915]

Malf gets kicked out on Friday or Monday?

 

Monday...

[KATCH-2D2]

So it will hit 250m tomorrow , on Thursday.Friday number would be interesting.

Maybe not. It starts losing screens tomorrow. Should still hit that mark on Fri though.

[Donald]

No....it is left with 5 mill to 250. ....by thurs it will hit that mark!

[alee7915]

Maybe not. It starts losing screens tomorrow. Should still hit that mark on Fri though.

 

Despite it starts losing screens tomorrow, it does not lose any Imax 3d screen(it is very important as until today, the Imax 3d screen which got 300-400 seats still almost sold out especially during the evening show) plus even it starts losing screens tomorrow, it still has at least one show in every hour at Wanda cinema which is the largest chain in China, so no need to worry!  

Edited July 9, 2014 by A K A

[KATCH-2D2]

It does not lose any Imax 3d screen(it is very important as until today, the Imax 3d screen which got 300-400 seats still almost sold out especially during the evening show) plus it still has at least one show in every hour in most cinema so do need to worry!  

Wow.. Gotta love the Chinese cinemas. My local cinemas have a show every two hours, for a new release!