A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 2015 WORLDWIDE GROSSES In 2015, there are many strong franchises and it will almost definitely be the biggest year ever in cinematic history. Let's cut to the point: 1. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1710 million 2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $1120 million 3. Spectre $1050 million 4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $970 million 5. Furious 7 $880 million 6. The Minions $820 million 7. Inside Out $690 million 8. Tomorrowland $680 million 9. Mission Impossible 5 $640 million 10. Ant-Man $635 million 11. The Good Dinosaur $610 million 12. Jurassic World $570 million Also hoping for a Top 20 and maybe even Top 10 finish are two female-fueled films, two fanboy films, three that appeal to both - including a comedy-, and another animated film: Cinderella ($450M+) Ted 2 ($430M+) Fifty Shades of Grey ($380M+) Fantastic Four ($370M+) Hotel Transylvania 2 ($350M+) Maze Runner 2 ($340M+) Insurgent ($320M+) Terminator ($300M+) Great analysis. But I think the recent Taken 3 could have a shot at $400m WW. Unfortunately many of those blockbusters——Mockingjay 2, Inside Out, Tomorrowland, Good Dinosaur, ets. wont do bloackbuster numbers in China. At the end of the day, here, 2015 most likely will shape up to be another weak year from Hollywood, similar to 2013/2014. There are only three 1B yuan hopefuls: F7, TA2 and JW. While 2016 looks to have a dozen of them, a real crazy year. 2015 in China S-list ($300m ~ RMB 2B±) no A-list (RMB 1B± ~ $200m) Avengers 2 Jurrasic World Furious 7 B-list ($100m ~ RMB 700m±) Hobbit 3 Spectre Terminator 5 Ant-man and maybe Minions C-list ($50 ~ RMB 400m±) Cinderella Tomorrowland and others D-list (RMB 100m ~ $40m±) Mockingjay 1&2 Seventh Son and others E-Cannon fodder (<RMB 100m) ..... 2016 is the monster year in China. S-list ($300m ~ RMB 2B±) KFP3 A-list (RMB 1B± ~ $200m) MI5 SW7 Warcraft X-Men: Apocalypse Cap 3 Apes 3 Independence Day 2 ? B-list ($100m ~ RMB 700m±) S&B Suicide Squad IA5 Bourne 5 ... C-list ($50 ~ RMB 400m±) Now You See Me 2 Finding Dory ... D-list (RMB 100m ~ $40m±) ..... E-Cannon fodder (<RMB 100m) ..... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 (edited) KFP3 has 300m potential while IA5 just 100m. didn't IA4 and KFP2 do similar numbers in china? edit: never mind. IA3 did 30% lower. But still that big a gap? Also think BvS has bigger potential if they make it a mini Justice League with major hype. Plus with march release, it might have closer to domestic release date? Edited January 6, 2015 by keysersoze123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 (edited) KFP2 was a year earlier than IA4, don't forget 30% per year increase in China. Chinese audience are not familiar with JLA. It should likely have a same release date as DOM. Edited January 6, 2015 by Sorcerer Supreme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Tuesday est NATM3 19M, 67.6M/$10.9M Tiger Mountain 15.4M, 713M/$114.7M Love on the Cloud 4.3M, 271M/$43.6M Bad Jokes 3.8M, 90.6M/$14.6M GWTB should end its run around 515M/$82.5M. Early Thursday Showtimes Miss Granny 36.2% NATM3 24.1% Tiger Mountain 13.5% Grandmaster 3D 11.9% 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TServo2049 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 (edited) Anybody think there's a possibility that KFP3 might get an early release in China to make the 2016 New Year holiday? Even with the three-month U.S. release delay, I don't think they're going to slow down production on the film. The fact that it's a local co-production, and (IIRC) not distributed by Fox, and that it and Star Wars would be much more evenly matched, makes me think it wouldn't be a bad idea for Oriental DreamWorks to release it for CNY in advance of the rest of the world. Edited January 6, 2015 by TServo2049 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 No foreign movies in Chinese New Year holidays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Great analysis. But I think the recent Taken 3 could have a shot at $400m WW. Unfortunately many of those blockbusters——Mockingjay 2, Inside Out, Tomorrowland, Good Dinosaur, ets. wont do bloackbuster numbers in China. At the end of the day, here, 2015 most likely will shape up to be another weak year from Hollywood, similar to 2013/2014. There are only three 1B yuan hopefuls: F7, TA2 and JW. While 2016 looks to have a dozen of them, a real crazy year. 2015 in China S-list ($300m ~ RMB 2B±) no A-list (RMB 1B± ~ $200m) Avengers 2 Jurrasic World Furious 7 B-list ($100m ~ RMB 700m±) Hobbit 3 Spectre Terminator 5 Ant-man and maybe Minions C-list ($50 ~ RMB 400m±) Cinderella Tomorrowland and others D-list (RMB 100m ~ $40m±) Mockingjay 1&2 Seventh Son and others E-Cannon fodder (<RMB 100m) ..... 2016 is the monster year in China. S-list ($300m ~ RMB 2B±) KFP3 A-list (RMB 1B± ~ $200m) MI5 SW7 Warcraft X-Men: Apocalypse Cap 3 Apes 3 Independence Day 2 ? B-list ($100m ~ RMB 700m±) S&B Suicide Squad IA5 Bourne 5 ... C-list ($50 ~ RMB 400m±) Now You See Me 2 Finding Dory ... D-list (RMB 100m ~ $40m±) ..... E-Cannon fodder (<RMB 100m) ..... Fantastic Beasts? Also, I really hope BvS ends up on the higher end of the range, close to 200M. And SW7 and Warcraft over 200M? What gives? Are they so popular there. From the BO alone,the prequels certainly weren't, even with the huge increase of the Chinese market. And Warcraft? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 (edited) KFP2 was a year earlier than IA4, don't forget 30% per year increase in China. Chinese audience are not familiar with JLA. It should likely have a same release date as DOM. they dont know much about batman, superman, wonder woman??? chinese audience dont read comics or watch any tv shows? On IA5 vs KFP3, even with 30% year on year boost KFP2 still < 2x IA4. Edited January 6, 2015 by keysersoze123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 they dont know much about batman, superman, wonder woman??? chinese audience dont read comics or watch any tv shows? On IA5 vs KFP3, even with 30% year on year boost KFP2 still < 2x IA4. Of Course We know Bat and Supes, WW not so much, and Most don't know they can team up and never heard of JLA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 (edited) Re keysersoze123 yes we can't rule out as big as $150m for IA5 but I am also afraid Scrat is not building fanbase as effective as Panda. Re James Fantastic Beasts could do $100m+ I think. I am not confident in those DC movies. Marvel blows them out of the water. SW is A-list in China and it should beat any Marvel title that is not called The Avengers that year. Here, EP1 was #2 in 1999, EP2 #5 in 2002 and EP3 #5 in 2005. And SW7 is not a prequel. The Clone Wars anime also has gained a lot new fans over the years. Every movie goer knows SW. The question is if SW7 will be a good movie. $200m for Warcraft is actually a bit lowballing ... China should easily outgross NA on this movie. It is said there have been 100 milllion Chinese users of those Warcfrat-related video games. WoW is a huge culture phenomena here. Yes, KFP3 is unlikely to get CNY release even if it's a co-production. 2016 will have a super-crowded March with Panda, SB and WoW, may set monthly record. Edited January 7, 2015 by firedeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 How were box office admissions last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 How were box office admissions last year? 2014 833m 2013 620m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 2014 833m 2013 620m Could reach 1b this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Tuesday est Tiger Mountain 15.4M, 713M/$114.7M Early Thursday Showtimes Miss Granny 36.2% Tiger Mountain will close to 800m after this week. Miss Granny biggest local hit January? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hernan Gonzalez Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Lionsgate: “With the widest Hunger Games opening ever in China and the first Hunger Games film to launch in 3D,Mockingjay is positioned to become a major motion picture event in one of our largest and fastest-growing territories.” http://m.screendaily.com/5081535.article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pre-release rating for MJ1 is only 6.0 on Douban, really low for a Hollywood movie. Five Armies is at 8.5. These ratings are voted by HK/TW moviegoers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Only 8.5, the WoM won't be good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 (edited) Movie - Rating-Votes Hobbit 1 - 8.1 163083 Hobbit 2 - 8.1 132312 Hobbit 3 - 8.5 7541 FOTR - 8.9 212546 TTT - 8.9 191295 ROTK - 9.0 200366 Edited January 7, 2015 by Sorcerer Supreme 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Didn't transformers, TWS, DOFP, DotPotA GOTG all have beter ratings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
