charlie Jatinder Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, fmpro said: Okay. 20% drop would suprise me.. We will see. Nice hourly chart btw👍 But then Monday pre sale drop from Sunday was 35% but final drop was just 18% so yeah, will be clear after matinees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Even if 20% drop for workdays, 2nd week probably will be over $250M. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 (edited) $750mn ~¥5 Billion is locked IMO. Unless it drop like stone in a lake for no reason. Week 1 (extended) will end at ~$475mn. (F-T $357mn) Shall hit $100-110mn 2nd Weekend and $160-175mn approx Week, for two weeks total of $635-650mn Approx. Another $100mn can be done easily. Edited February 11, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Scott MendelsonVerified account @ScottMendelson 1m1 minute ago More Box Office: #TheWanderingEarth Just Grossed More In Its First Week In China ($349 Million) Than Did #AvengersInfinityWar In America ($338 Million) via @forbes by @ScottMendelson #BoxOffice #WuJing #WolfWarrior #StarWarsIX #AvengersEndgame https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/02/11/box-office-china-wandering-earth-avengers-star-wars-wu-jing-vin-diesel-wolf-warrior-imax/ … 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) May be Monday still had some holiday leftovers as Tuesday morning shows are rather slow comparative to Monday and perhaps today box office will be back to normalcy. Using the yesterday hourly change trend, Tuesday from 12:00 is heading for ¥222mn or $33mn. Though that's not final number, next 2 hours shall gave better idea. That said, ¥222mn will still be more than half (54%) of Sunday (even Saturday) when usually its around 35-40% for most high score films. Aquaman had Tuesday 33% of Sunday while Bumble bee was 30% only. Comparing with Local films, ORS has 2nd Tuesday 51% of 2nd Sunday. Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 AT 14:00 ¥109mn, which is on the line of the formulae I am using to project. Using that Tuesday is on line to ¥235mn Approx. FYR, The bold numbers will be the actual and normal will be the projected number at that time. Time Tuesday Gross Change Change % % of total Presales ¥40 17.06% 12:00 ¥72 ¥32 80.00% 30.70% 13:00 ¥87 ¥15 20.83% 37.10% 14:00 ¥109 ¥22 25.08% 46.40% 15:00 ¥126 ¥17 15.66% 53.67% 16:00 ¥140 ¥14 11.38% 59.78% 17:00 ¥152 ¥12 8.75% 65.01% 18:00 ¥170 ¥17 11.18% 72.28% 19:00 ¥191 ¥22 12.87% 81.59% 20:00 ¥209 ¥18 9.27% 89.15% 21:00 ¥223 ¥14 6.52% 94.96% 22:00 ¥230 ¥7 3.06% 97.87% Final ¥235 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like a lot of people didn't go back to work yesterday. Evening rate should pick up. Should be 60% of Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We are back to the big numbers. Very good matinees. 90% of Monday. Time Tuesday Gross Change Change % % of total Presales ¥40 14.77% 12:00 ¥72 ¥32 80.00% 26.58% 13:00 ¥87 ¥15 20.83% 32.12% 14:00 ¥109 ¥22 25.08% 40.17% 15:00 ¥131 ¥22 20.38% 48.36% 16:00 ¥150 ¥19 14.22% 55.24% 17:00 ¥166 ¥16 10.67% 61.14% 18:00 ¥188 ¥22 13.39% 69.33% 19:00 ¥216 ¥28 15.12% 79.81% 20:00 ¥239 ¥23 10.67% 88.33% 21:00 ¥257 ¥18 7.42% 94.88% 22:00 ¥266 ¥9 3.45% 98.15% Final ¥271 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 167,5 at 5pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Its now matching Monday numbers for evening shows. Final number will be around ¥285mn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 16 hours ago, Firepower said: You can't be very good at predicting China results unless you have super-powers, those people in China thread can be right about one movie, but very wrong about 10 others, the final result there is often very different from what people predict. I haven't seen a single positive post from you and Charlie about Alita, all you post here is negative stuff about the movie, ignoring all good things. It doesn't look objective or that you liked the movie at all. @fmpro @Olive @Gavin Feng @firedeep @peludo @Charlie Jatinder @Fake we are right just 10% of the time apparently. Im thinking we're close to 75%. He must have been thinking of deadline 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 You went from 222 til 285 in 5 hours @Charlie Jatinder 🤤 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, POTUS said: @fmpro @Olive @Gavin Feng @firedeep @peludo @Charlie Jatinder @Fake we are right just 10% of the time apparently. Im thinking we're close to 75%. He must have been thinking of deadline Anyone who have followed the Chinese threads for a while (general and presales) know that the predictions given are probably the most objective of the whole forum, precisely because they are not fan-driven (at least, not apparently). You can be more or less accurate, but I have that feeling when I read all of you giving data (thank you for including me on the list, but I am far to know something about Chinese BO). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) 33 minutes ago, fmpro said: The film went from 222 til 285 in 5 hours @Charlie Jatinder 🤤 Fixed it. Besides, surprisingly last hour film was pretty slow. Added just ¥14mn as compared to ¥25mn yesterday. We are back to ¥235mn. Besides, I am on mobile so can't share the table, here's where I am working https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19FMGxiYylQCRPWmETDsjYYxTZOj2EElHhXWCF655CbY/edit?usp=drivesdk Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) double post. Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 13 N The Wandering Earth CMC $1,685,287 - 64 - $26,333 $2,187,482 - 1 Day Date Rank Gross % +/- YD / LW* Theaters / Avg Gross-to-Date Day # Tue Feb. 5, 2019 - $156,176 - - 34 $4,593 $156,176 1 Wed Feb. 6, 2019 9 $232,019 +48.6% - 34 $6,824 $388,195 2 Thu Feb. 7, 2019 - $114,000 -50.9% - 34 $3,353 $502,195 3 Fri Feb. 8, 2019 11 $481,424 +322.3% - 64 $7,522 $983,619 4 Sat Feb. 9, 2019 - $705,381 +46.5% - 64 $11,022 $1,689,000 5 Sun Feb. 10, 2019 - $498,482 -29.3% - 64 $7,789 $2,187,482 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) Country (click to view weekend breakdown) Dist. Release Date Opening Wknd % of Total Total Gross / As Of FOREIGN TOTAL - N/A $180,388,292 - $298,467,085 2/10/19 Australia CMC 2/5/19 $369,721 99.3% $372,377 2/10/19 China - 2/5/19 $179,944,832 60.4% $297,998,461 2/10/19 New Zealand CMC 2/5/19 $73,739 76.6% $96,247 2/10/19 Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $2,187,482 0.73% + Foreign: $298,467,085 99.27% = Worldwide: $300,654,567 Edit: JFYI, I just took Mojo format. China number I put from my sheet. Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I just realized what a crap year 2018 was for Disney in China, Leaving aside Marvel films, they barely made $100mn from 5 films. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 (edited) Time Tuesday Gross Change Change % % of total Presales ¥40 15.69% 12:00 ¥72 ¥32 80.00% 28.24% 13:00 ¥87 ¥15 20.83% 34.12% 14:00 ¥109 ¥22 25.08% 42.67% 15:00 ¥131 ¥22 20.38% 51.37% 16:00 ¥150 ¥19 14.50% 58.82% 17:00 ¥167 ¥17 11.33% 65.49% 18:00 ¥181 ¥14 8.38% 70.98% 19:00 ¥199 ¥18 9.90% 78.01% 20:00 ¥222 ¥23 11.60% 87.06% 21:00 ¥241 ¥19 8.56% 94.51% 22:00 ¥250 ¥9 3.73% 98.04% Final ¥255 It's almost locked that Tuesday will be over ¥255mn, down 24% from Monday. The day rather behaved strangely, with slow mornings, very good matinees and very slow during 17:00 to 19:00 and strong after that matching Monday pace for late night shows. Mid point at 14:50, up 13 minutes from Monday. Pre sales made 15.7% of the day, compared to 14.8% yesterday. Edited February 12, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The Wandering Earth Date Gross in CNY ('000) Gross in $ Daily Change L/W Change Weekend Weekly Previews ¥13,154 $1,948,741 05/02/2019 ¥187,773 $27,818,222 06/02/2019 ¥257,329 $38,122,815 37.04% 07/02/2019 ¥338,606 $50,163,852 31.58% $118,053,630 08/02/2019 ¥382,613 $56,683,407 13.00% 09/02/2019 ¥415,516 $61,649,258 8.76% 10/02/2019 ¥415,266 $61,612,166 -0.06% $179,944,832 11/02/2019 ¥338,112 $49,795,582 -19.18% 2455.27% 12/02/2019 ¥255,500 $37,740,030 -24.21% 35.67% Total ¥2,603,869 $385,534,073 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...