Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 10 hours ago, LPLC said: TBALC is falling like a rock. I imagine a final over $750M is likely but something over $800M seems unlikely now. #1 : WW2 = $854M #2 : Hi, mom = $821M #3 : TBALC = $750M-$800M Both the USD figures for WW2 &Hi Mom are apparently wrong. BOM should not be used in calculating Chinese Film gross in USD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Hi Mom is $836.5M in China. $840M+ WW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 I have never understood to talk in dollars about local grosses in foreign countries. I can get it if we are comparing WW grosses, but in terms of a single country, I think it is way more easy to look at local currency, even more when we are used to talk about yuan amounts: Wolf Warrior 2: 5.694b Yuan Hi, mom: 5.413b The battle at lake Changjin: 5.17b (projected by Maoyan right now) Ne Zha: 5.035b 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamiem Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, peludo said: I have never understood to talk in dollars about local grosses in foreign countries. Agree unless a movie beats TFA Domestic figure or gets over $1B USD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Hi, Mom dailies shouldn't be compared with TBaLC. Use Homeland movie. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jamiem said: Agree unless a movie beats TFA Domestic figure or gets over $1B USD. I mean even then its not like the box office returns are gonna be converted in USD. They remain in CNY only. Saying so because, back in 2017, ER was $~¥6.7, making ¥5.7B just $850M, while just 4 months later, it would have been $907M. Now there could be another POV, you convert TFA USD in CNY and use that as benchmark for Chinese film. ER is 2015 was 6.5, that would roughly equate to ¥6.08B. So a film crossing ¥6.1B in China be biggest grosser in single territory irrespective of ER. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luiperz Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 one question.. do you still have capacity limit in cinemas? what are the current restrictions for cinemas in china now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, luiperz said: one question.. do you still have capacity limit in cinemas? what are the current restrictions for cinemas in china now? I don't not think so. CoVid was on steep drop in daile cases since late August. And we are already on mid October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Hi Mom is $836.5M in China. $840M+ WW. Currently, The Numbers conversion placed the USD value (China) at $840.99M but I like to compare films more in yuan (¥) or more appropriately in admissions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 5 hours ago, Issac Newton said: Personally, What I am expecting 🤔 By 10/17: TBALC : ¥4900M-¥5000M By 10/24: TBALC : ¥5500M-¥5600M By 10/31: TBALC : ¥5800M-¥5900M Complete Run: ¥6000M-¥6200M That “complete run” number definitely isn’t happening. The final number will be closer to ¥5200M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: That “complete run” number definitely isn’t happening. The final number will be closer to ¥5200M. As mentioned above "just expecting" while I can not confirm exact ending. BTW, I also don't have much hope but Charlie, another expert has focused on 6000M+ ending. ~¥5200M is the number analysis by Maoyon which will change in coming dates. Well, it is very difficult to decide legs here. Only time speaks about the final numbers. Edited October 13, 2021 by Issac Newton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Eh. I dont think 6B is possible from here. I can see 5.8B but also can end at just 5.4B. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Eh. I dont think 6B is possible from here. I can see 5.8B but also can end at just 5.4B. Really undecidable forecast. Earlier, you forecast ¥6000M+ on 5.75X. Well we are missing it now. Dailes are falling below ¥100M (Today, barely running at ¥58M /¥4365M on 20:30 JST) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said: Really undecidable forecast. Earlier, you forecast ¥6000M+ on 5.75X. Well we are missing it now. Dailes are falling below ¥100M (Today, barely running at ¥58M /¥4365M on 20:30 JST) That was with 325M SUN, it did 303M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Yeah, you are right. It did ¥303M vs ¥325M as forecast earlier. It is now going below the forecast. Again dailies are below ¥100M. I am in worry if it can ¥75M or not (Today). Douban ratings are at 7.6 Well, how did people reception working in China (WOM) I have not seen the film as International Release (Outside China) is yet to be decided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 TBATL actually is doing little less than you see on workdays currently. Official CBO app say 20~25% ticket sales in recent days are offline selling. Mostly, the number is around 10%. It might be a sign that block booking by enterprises, a usual operation for local propaganda movies, is happening. This is why I don't think it would go a long way in the rest of the running though the 3rd and 4th weekend would still be huge. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Yep just noticed. 75% gross from online, usually 85% in 2nd weekdays so could be drops in coming weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Wednesday Estimate: TBALC : ¥76M (~$11.8M) /¥4383M (~$681.8M) 78.4% MPMP : ¥16M (~$2.5M) /¥1235M (~$192.1M) 16.3% Market Share in % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 TBALC Dailies: (Expecting) Thru : ¥70M /¥4453M Fri : ¥100-¥120M /¥4553-¥4573M Sat : ¥150-¥180M /¥4603-¥4753M Sun : ¥150-¥180M /¥4750-¥4933M Overall should reach ¥4800M by this weekend. I really don't know it's future. So, my forecast will apparently look high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 9 hours ago, peludo said: I have never understood to talk in dollars about local grosses in foreign countries. I can get it if we are comparing WW grosses, but in terms of a single country, I think it is way more easy to look at local currency, even more when we are used to talk about yuan amounts: Most of us are just used to US currency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...