China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[efialtes76]

3 minutes ago, firedeep said:

if KFP3 opened on Feb 8, instead of Jan 29, then we would have been talking of BIG FOUR CNY films instead of BIG THREE.

Yep.

With 18-20% of the screens KFP3 could make 100m+

[Polaroids]

51 minutes ago, firedeep said:

absolutely, two biggest Chinese directors + one biggest IP + big cast & huge budget = one of the biggest movies of the year

it will win next CNY

I feel like it would depend on whether or not the Paramount co-produced Journey to the West will try to battle it out with Stephen's version next CNY. Liu Xiao Ling Tong is the lead in that one and he still holds a lot of influence because he's the monkey king in people's eyes.

 

Also, there are so many JTTW movies coming out in the next couple of years. Won't people be sick of JTTW adaptations by the time Tsui's version comes out?

[a2k]

1 hour ago, firedeep said:

if KFP3 opened on Feb 8, instead of Jan 29, then we would have been talking of BIG FOUR CNY films instead of BIG THREE.

 

How would it have helped KFP3 if it had opened against the other 3?

[Bluebomb]

12 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

How would it have helped KFP3 if it had opened against the other 3?

Theaters would have been obligated to show KFP3 regardless of word of mouth or any external influences. They don't call it the Chinese New Year massacre for nothing. KFP3 might have started on the 4th biggest screens behind the big 3 but it is still better to have 1 week of middling screens on the highest weekend of the year than 1 week of way below average ticket sales on the biggest screens ahead of the biggest weekend of the year. Any additional screen cuts after the New Year is not set in stone like it is for KFP3 now. This was a wasted opportunity for DWA.

 

In short, it's called common sense and apparently whoever decided on the release date did not have any.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Bluebomb

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Bluebomb said:

Theaters would have been obligated to show KFP3 regardless of word of mouth or any external influences. They don't call it the Chinese New Year massacre for nothing. KFP3 might have started on the 4th biggest screens behind the big 3 but it is still better to have 1 week of middling screens on the highest weekend of the year than 1 week of way below ticket sales on the biggest screens ahead of the biggest weekend of the year.

 

In short, it's called common sense and apparently whoever decided on the release date did not have any.

 

So in the 1st week of release a film is guaranteed a set amount of screens irrespective of competition? What opening day/weekend do you think it would have managed? Thanks.

[Bluebomb]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

 

So in the 1st week of release a film is guaranteed a set amount of screens irrespective of competition? What opening day/weekend do you think it would have managed? Thanks.

Nothing is guaranteed but on the biggest weekend of the year, holdovers are bound to get axed. Massively. It comes with January being such a dead period and studios/distributors pushing their big film onto the silver screen. That means screens will go to the new openers and holdovers are left with unfavourable showtimes/screens on CNY.

 

I'm not that well versed in China's box office market but if I had to guess, I would venture about 400-500m yuan during the 3-day period (Mon-Wed) for KFP3 on the 3rd/4th biggest screens almost everywhere.

[druv10]

12 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

So in the 1st week of release a film is guaranteed a set amount of screens irrespective of competition? What opening day/weekend do you think it would have managed? Thanks.

With the WOM it has, 250-300M would be very likely and potentially more. Now it'll lucky to hit even 150M, boneheaded decision making at it's finest.

[Bob Violence]

2 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Man Stephen Chow is one hell of a filmmaker/actor. 

 

Well, he was one hell of an actor. It's been almost a decade since he acted in anything, and if he isn't going to do it in JTTW2 (which he isn't even directing) then I have to wonder if he'll ever do it again. He's announced all sorts of acting projects over the years but they never seem to get any closer to actually happening. But he's not even 55 yet, so he's got plenty of time left.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Bob Violence

[POTUS 2020]

Isn't it possible that it would have opened 130m today, averaged 100m for the next 6 days then take big hit the following weekend. And still wind up with 1B. 

Throw the 96m for KFP2 out the window, call it a phenom. Toons aren't doing half the business of live action. Many were expecting 500m after ff7 exploded. Then tapered back to 250m when the realization that most movies won't perform with market increase like MI5 and others. It will be close to matching the all time toon record. Would you say finding dory is a disappointment in domestic because it was 1/2 of SW7 but slightly beat TS3?

I think it will bump tomorrow.. 21-23m. Pre-sales the same but the multiplier should grow.

[Lex Luthor's Wig]

KFP3 doesn't defend its biggest animated flick crown that Return of the Monkey King took from KFP2 last Summer.  Tsk Tsk Tsk...I don't know how it will fare against the other three CNY movies but agree it will have been given a fair chance to succeed by virtue of its brand recognition.  ODW definitely had freedom of choice on the dates, it wasn't an import title at all.  Let's just agree ODW done screwed up this time...better luck with...Trolls?  Are they going to make that one a co-production as well?

 

Curious about MERMAID but will have to wait out a few more days.  These CNY box office days are rising like Taobao 11/11 shows annually!

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Bet bigger? You didn't bite on the $10 bet. You will suddenly grow balls on $100?

So it was over 20m. You were a tad off there.

Hard to say where it will finish. Many variables. It could rebound from OD shock with more shows and increase slightly. Last year had a 12 day effect with the last 2 days being the weekend. Does this carry into early next week.

I think it gets to low 8s by sunday with it holding close to 20m p/day ave. Should get to 900m. The 4 new releases the following weekend? If not it could get to 950. Short of TMK.

@The Good Olive pm me your email for gift card

 

$10 has little value but dont like gambling or betting(dont have permission from my boss at home either :-) ).

 

it looks like slightly increasing today. MK2 seems to be the 1st casualty of CNY. Already its presales show its BO is below the show count. I think only Mermaid 2 will continue to hold great. But new releases ahead will continue to impact KFP3. there is one big release on 14th and quite a few releases on 18th/19th. I cant see it making much beyond that.

 

But your point about how long the BO will be boosted for CNY could be a factor. I thought even the coming sunday will be a work day for most folks. Olive/Firedeep to confirm.

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

Yep.

With 18-20% of the screens KFP3 could make 100m+

 

if it got 20% of screens it would have grossed 150m+ OD.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

$10 has little value but dont like gambling or betting(dont have permission from my boss at home either :-) ).

 

it looks like slightly increasing today. MK2 seems to be the 1st casualty of CNY. Already its presales show its BO is below the show count. I think only Mermaid 2 will continue to hold great. But new releases ahead will continue to impact KFP3. there is one big release on 14th and quite a few releases on 18th/19th. I cant see it making much beyond that.

 

But your point about how long the BO will be boosted for CNY could be a factor. I thought even the coming sunday will be a work day for most folks. Olive/Firedeep to confirm.

it's public holiday through next Monday 2.15.  students wont be back to school until 2.23.

 

A few romcoms will enter the market for VD then Crounching Tiger 2 and a few more releases the following Friday.

 

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

if it got 20% of screens it would have grossed 150m+ OD.

more importantly, 7 100m+ days in a row. it could have crossed 1B by the holiday end alone. with a Feb 8 opening, it could do $100m more than now.

Edited February 9, 2016 by firedeep

[TigerPaw]

29 minutes ago, firedeep said:

it's public holiday through next Monday 2.15.  students wont be back to school until 2.23.

 

A few romcoms will enter the market for VD then Crounching Tiger 2 and a few more releases the following Friday.

 

What do you think of CTHD2's shift to Feb 19th? I thought it would be a good counter-programming for CNY against the big 3, won't be as big as others but the Market is huge and everyone is watching movies. I expected it to earn at least 300million yuan if released on CNY. (anyway HK previews on CNY have quite a good WOM for CTHD2)

 Do you think it would have earned more if it came out on Feb 8th instead of 19th?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

10 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

What do you think of CTHD2's shift to Feb 19th? I thought it would be a good counter-programming for CNY against the big 3, won't be as big as others but the Market is huge and everyone is watching movies. I expected it to earn at least 300million yuan if released on CNY. (anyway HK previews on CNY have quite a good WOM for CTHD2)

 Do you think it would have earned more if it came out on Feb 8th instead of 19th?

I think either way it wont make a big difference. 300m still possible.if its really good.

[POTUS 2020]

Ok. Students are off next week. Explains the hold for 12 days last year. BO dropped just 30% when CNY was over.

With a 10% bump today it should  be close 900m by the time the new releases arrive in 9 days

 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, No Prisoners said:

Ok. Students are off next week. Explains the hold for 12 days last year. BO dropped just 30% when CNY was over.

With a 10% bump today it should  be close 900m by the time the new releases arrive in 9 days

 

 

wait. you are expecting kFP3 BO to be at 25m per day non stop for next 9 days. That is too much to expect. It will lose some shows when VD movies open. Plus starting next tuesday it will be like last weekdays. So that would be around 50% off from holiday BO. I doubt it will gross 200m in next 9 days.

[keysersoze123]

Olive,

   Update from maoyan/cbooo this morning put mermaid at 260m. So were the numbers yesterday night somewhat overestimated?

[POTUS 2020]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

wait. you are expecting kFP3 BO to be at 25m per day non stop for next 9 days. That is too much to expect. It will lose some shows when VD movies open. Plus starting next tuesday it will be like last weekdays. So that would be around 50% off from holiday BO. I doubt it will gross 200m in next 9 days.

20m per day. Close to 900 meaning upper 800s. 

 

[druv10]

24 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

20m per day. Close to 900 meaning upper 800s. 

 

Even with 900M, it's going to be outside top 10 of the year. CA3, X:A, ID2, WOW, BvS and I wouldn't be shocked with Suicide Squad or Dr Strange beating either.