Jump to content

A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

Recommended Posts





POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, cannastop said:

@No Prisoners

 

Oh, wow, I really might win?


And I'm pretty sure I did better than that at the derby. Might be wrong, though.

It would need to do over 190m today for you to not win the weekend.

 

Took a quick look at your picks. You're about 60%. A lot of low scores this week which happens when holdovers get decimated. Average score will be about 70%. Did you take a look at AoUs OW last year, all movies dropped 50-70% except Cindy. A few in the high 60s. History as usual repeated itself.

Zoo and TBH are in the 40s but were better holding movies. MD is an obvious exception.

 

 

 

 

Edited by No Prisoners
Link to comment
Share on other sites




POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

200 is locked? 

 

Final maybe near ultron/ 

No 200m not locked. It could happen with great holds like TBH, but the chart below shows what happen with good holds like AM

  TF4           AOU         CA3            
Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Comp TF4 Comp AOU  
Tues           212     212 34             -34.3  
Wed           123 -42.1%   335 54             -54.1  
Thur           91 -26.0%   426 69 17     17     -68.8  
Fri 195     195 32 127 40.0%   554 89 180     197 30 -1.7 -59.1  
Sat 223 14.4%   418 69 236 85.2%   790 127 247 37.2%   444 68 -0.3 -59.2  
Sun 213 -4.6%   631 103 165 -29.9%   955 154 180 -27.1%   624 96 -7.5 -58.1  
Mon 123 -42.1%   754 124 45 -72.6%   1001 161 49 -72.8%   673 103 -20.1 -57.9 proj
Tues 112 -8.9%   866 142 41 -9.7% -80.7% 1042 168 44 -10.2%   717 110 -31.7 -57.8 proj
Wed 95 -15.7%   961 157 50 22.0% -59.3% 1092 176 40 -10.2%   756 116 -41.2 -59.8 proj
Thur 84 -11.0%   1045 171 31 -38.0% -65.9% 1123 181 36 -9.9%   792 122 -49.5 -59.3 proj
Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 42 35.5% -67.0% 1165 188 54 51.7% -70.0% 846 130 -55.5 -57.7 proj
Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 78 85.7% -66.9% 1243 200 108 100.0% -56.3% 954 147 -60.1 -53.7 proj
Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 59 -24.4% -64.3% 1302 210 78 -27.8% -56.7% 1032 159 -67.4 -51.2 proj
Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 15.8 -73.2% -65.2% 1317 212 22.0 -71.8% -55.1% 1054 162 -72.9 -50.4 proj
Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 10.8 -31.6% -73.7% 1328 214 19.8 -10.0% -55.0% 1073 165 -78.5 -49.1 proj
Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 9.5 -12.0% -81.0% 1338 216 17.8 -10.1% -54.9% 1091 168 -82.8 -47.9 proj
Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 8.4 -11.6% -72.9% 1346 217 16.0 -10.1% -55.1% 1107 170 -86.8 -46.8 proj
Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 11.9 41.7% -71.7% 1358 219 21.5 34.4% -60.2% 1129 174 -90.4 -45.4 AB INS open
Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 26.0 118.5% -66.7% 1384 223 36.5 69.8% -66.2% 1165 179 -94.9 -44.0 proj
Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 24.0 -7.7% -59.3% 1408 227 27.0 -26.0% -65.4% 1192 183 -100.3 -43.7 proj
Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 25.0 4.2% 58.2% 1433 231 8.0 -70.4% -63.6% 1200 185 -103.3 -46.5 proj
Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 4.0 -84.0% -63.0% 1437 232 7.2 -10.0% -63.6% 1207 186 -106.8 -46.0 proj
Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 3.5 -12.5% -63.2% 1441 232 6.5 -9.7% -63.5% 1214 187 -109.5 -45.6 proj
Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 3.0 -14.3% -64.3% 1444 233 5.8 -10.8% -63.8% 1220 188 -111.6 -45.2 proj
        1900 319       1460 238       1260 194 -125.0 -44.0  

The above projection shows a typical drop tomorrow for this genre, could hold better if WoM spills over from the weekend.

10% DoD drops are very good for the midweek and 35-50/70-100% bumps occur on Fri/Sat. So I applied 10% DoD with 50/100% for next Fri/Sat. Just 35/70% for the following due to competition and loss of screens. This is a good scenario and it still falls short of 1300/$200m and of course AoU.

Typical DoD drops this week at 12.5-15% would take the total down to 1100m

It will need  a good Monday hold in the -60s and 7% DoD average holds T/W/Th to clear 1300 and try for AoU

The 4th week wont make very much as more competition enters the field.

Edited by No Prisoners
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites


cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

It would need to do over 190m today for you to not win the weekend.

 

Took a quick look at your picks. You're about 60%. A lot of low scores this week which happens when holdovers get decimated. Average score will be about 70%. Did you take a look at AoUs OW last year, all movies dropped 50-70% except Cindy. A few in the high 60s. History as usual repeated itself.

Zoo and TBH are in the 40s but were better holding movies. MD is an obvious exception.

 

 

 

 

Hmm, yes, I did fuck up.


At least I got Zootopia's drop somewhat right.

Edited by cannastop
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites














fmpro Global Phenomenon

fmpro

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, movieboner said:

I predict a $250 million finish for Cap in China. Hopefully, it reaches a bit higher.

 

That is not going to happen

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept