China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Issac Newton]

27 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Water Bridge: $300mil OW -> $1 bil 

Avatar 2: $200mil OW -> $1 bil 

Still don't see $1.5 bil. Detective Chinatown 3 opened during their biggest holiday of the year

 

Because those numbers are far more in Dec 2021. Water Gate Bridge and Avatar 2 are Winter 2022 films. So, if we estimate OW now. It will roughly match any possibility. Like I assume $150M OW for DC3 but it went to make $400M OW. Likely, TBALC finals were expected to be at ¥4200M but it has made ¥5767M till date.

[Gavin Feng]

Douban score:

 

No Way Home - 8.1/10 (18k votes)

 

Matrix 4 - 6.0/10 (7k votes)

[Gavin Feng]

doubt Water Bridge could top Changjin. Unlike the expectations and gentle requirements for the first one before opening, most general audience are now knowing the maximum of the production - unfinished CGI, rough direction by three old co-directors, untrustworthy emotions (that's strange considering the movie is based on a real history). A bigger opening can be expected, but a new record for lifetime is in doubt.

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

A bigger opening can be expected, but a new record for lifetime is in doubt.

Bona films - Is that a challenge?

[john2000]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Douban score:

 

No Way Home - 8.1/10 (18k votes)

 

Matrix 4 - 6.0/10 (7k votes)

Thats a very good score for spidey.Hopefully it does release there ,seems like WOM could be great.

[John Rambo]

On 12/23/2021 at 7:20 AM, Issac Newton said:

It's because of mocking Chinese culture, including Persona grata in their films as their casting.........this list will never end. NWH doesn't seem to have any problem but it just doesn't have a release date due to boycott of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics by its home country "US" and also because of "Marvel" logo in the film. Sony actually can solve this in a day by removing "Marvel" logo but their home country has already taken much disaster steps like diplomatic boycott on Winter Olympics, sanction on human rights..... Making the film struck forever...

Marvel has never mocked Chinese culture AFAIK...infact they have been duly respected and provided representation of Chinese stories, characters etc.

 

Please correct me if i am wrong!

[XXR & Friends]

8 hours ago, The GOAT said:

Water Bridge: $300mil OW -> $1 bil 

Avatar 2: $200mil OW -> $1 bil 

Still don't see $1.5 bil. Detective Chinatown 3 opened during their biggest holiday of the year

 

 

I have a hard time seeing A2 only making $200M OW. Infinity War accomplished that. 

[Issac Newton]

48 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

I have a hard time seeing A2 only making $200M OW. Infinity War accomplished that. 

I expect $300M-$350M OW. but, it's will still look low. Director James Cameron is just on another level in term of Box Office

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I expect $300M-$350M OW. but, it's will still look low. Director James Cameron is just on another level in term of Box Office

 

DC3 + 10% with Hi, Mom legs.

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

DC3 + 10% with Hi, Mom legs.

Satisfying the equation : Second WKend > OW

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Satisfying the equation : Second WKend > OW

 

Probably not but overall legs will hopefully be over 2.5x at least. Hi, Mom legs where something like 5.5x right?

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

Probably not but overall legs will hopefully be over 2.5x at least. Hi, Mom legs where something like 5.5x right?

Hi Mom Box Office

OW : $163M

2WK: $135M /$625M

Finals : $842M

 

Yeah, but rare multiple, Avatar 2 will just pass all expectation. Because 5.5x is just massive

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Hi Mom Box Office

OW : $163M

2WK: $135M /$625M

Finals : $842M

 

Yeah, but rare multiple, Avatar 2 will just pass all expectation. Because 5.5x is just massive

 

Alright I'll go with $415M OW x 2.8 legs. This is what I want, no necessarily what I think will happen.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

Alright I'll go with $415M OW x 2.8 legs. This is what I want, no necessarily what I think will happen.

$1.162B, not a bad numbers but will eventually increase once trailer drops

[JonahVex]

I doubt avatar will get release in china and even if it does CCP will take away theaters once it looks like it could beat their own local titles records

[poweranimals]

I wonder how mad the CCP will be when NWH becomes the #1 film of the year without even getting a Chinese release.

[Issac Newton]

It's funny for CFA if NWH passes TBALC. China already has three films doing as massive as $700M, $843M, $907M in a single year in a single market. A year where all-time biggest OW in single market of A:EG ($357M) is broken by DC3 ($400M), a year where Hi Mom became the highest grossing film directed by Female, overtaking Wonder Woman, a year where TBALC broke all-time highest grossing film in Mainland China. 

 

Well, I will say CFA will cry if NWH manage to make $910M in single market (home country), which is never happening. China Box Office is full of amazing grosses, which can be improved with multiples/legs. This year, it has three biggies films making more than $150M in OW. It's just full of surprises.

[Issac Newton]

One thing, I do not understand why a political party "CCP" is blamed when a Marvel film isn't releasing in Mainland China. I believe many will get mad if Hollywood films follow Japanese way of entering Chinese Market (3 years after Japanese Premerie), but still Chinese fans and audience show love to our works even if it has made a way less money in Japan.

 

I believe that a delay release does not meant less money unless the work is appealing to audience.

For example:

My Neighbor Toroto was release in China in 2018 while it's japanese premerie was back in 1980s but still has make $41M. Another example, Spirited Away, who took all-time highest grossing film in Japan from Titanic back in 2001, has heavily pirated through out China, but the work is the second highest grossing Japanese film in Mainland China with a gross of $71M in 2019. 

 

Spoiler

I know some people are frustated over delayed release but there must be patience. Do not just simply blame without a good reason. CFA is completely an independant board. What I know is that It's a two months process for a release date within three months and nine months process for same day release as of home country. TMS studio went for 9 months process for Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet for same day release in China as of Japan, providing one of the biggest non-Demon Slayer OW ($40M)

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, JonahVex said:

I doubt avatar will get release in china and even if it does CCP will take away theaters once it looks like it could beat their own local titles records

James Cameron, way of directing film does not involve any involvement or intention of spreading American Propaganda. For which, Avatar was the only Hollywood film to get a run through out Chinese New Year Celebration, a time where Hollywood release were banned by LFP policy, to promote local works.

[poweranimals]

46 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

James Cameron, way of directing film does not involve any involvement or intention of spreading American Propaganda. For which, Avatar was the only Hollywood film to get a run through out Chinese New Year Celebration, a time where Hollywood release were banned by LFP policy, to promote local works.

I don't see any propaganda in any Marvel films.