China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Olive]

What's the potential of avengers 2 in China ?

Most box office observers here are predicting $250-300M.

Edited April 21, 2015 by Johnny Storm

[baumer]

Does F7 still have an outside chance of 400?

[Olive]

Does F7 still have an outside chance of 400?

Not likely, it faces 3 wide releases this weekend, will see a steep drop.

[Emirazza]

Not likely, it faces 3 wide releases this weekend, will see a steep drop.

That's good news for AoU. I really want AoU to out gross F7 in China! 

[druv10]

That's good news for AoU. I really want AoU to out gross F7 in China! 

 

Just be happy with 250-300M. 

[fmpro]

Just be happy with 250-300M.

You really think 300 mill could happen?

[Emirazza]

Just be happy with 250-300M. 

I can't. 

[druv10]

You really think 300 mill could happen?

 

Olive made a post about it. firedeep is predicting 2B Yuan which would be over 320M. To be honest I would be happy with 200M, anything over that amount is just icing on the cake. 

[Olive]

Tomorrowland May 22

Can't see TA2 over 250M now.

Edited April 21, 2015 by Johnny Storm

[fmpro]

Tomorrowland May 22

Can't see TA2 over 250M now.

250 mill is still awesome. But being beaten by F7 by over 100 mill is just mindblowing WTF 1 month ago

[A Marvel Fanboy]

JW just got screened at the Film Bureau yesterday. A June 10 release is possible otherwise it would have to be pushed to later August.

Annual summer protection period starts from June 19 till MI5 somewhere in August.

Both JW and MI5 are non-official China-US coproductions. JW——CFGC/Legendary East/Uni, similar to F7 and other future Legendary-Uni projects; MI5——CFGC's China Movie Channel / Par., same people on TF4.

Doraemon 3D doesnt matter. It was never going to do big numbers.

Still think TA2 will do 2B~ depsite of Tomorrowland (5.22). Actually I wont rule out its chance of matching F7. We will know soon. See if it increases substantially in other markets.

8-May Chappie 超能查派

12-May Avengers: Age of Ultron 复仇者联盟2：奥创纪元

22-May Tomorrowland 明日世界

12-Jun Design for Living 华丽上班族

10-Jun Jurassic World 侏罗纪世界

18-Jun SLP2 杀破狼2

19-Jun The Ark of Mr. Chow 少年班

26-Jun Hollywood Adventures 横冲直撞好莱坞

3-Jul A Monk in a Floating World 道士下山

9-Jul Tiny Times 4 小时代4

10-Jul Zhi Zi Hua Kai 栀子花开

16-Jul Monster Hunt 捉妖记

17-Jul Jian Bing Man 煎饼侠

July Hustle 迷城

July The House That Never Dies 2 京城81号2

July Death Duel 三少爷的剑

13-Aug Go away Mr. tumour 滚蛋吧！肿瘤君

20-Aug Bride Wars 新娘大作战

August Mission Impossible 5 碟中谍5

Part of summer's schedule. JW is not dated yet.

[Emirazza]

Tomorrowland May 22

Can't see TA2 over 250M now.

Its all Disney. Why didn't they push it further? Its just 10 days after AoU's release?

[druv10]

Tomorrowland May 22

Can't see TA2 over 250M now.

 

250M is great for TA2 but why such a big discrepancy between your prediction of TA2 vs Firedeep's?

[druv10]

Its all Disney. Why didn't they push it further? Its just 10 days after AoU's release?

 

 

SARFT likes to screw around with Hollywood releases including FF7's Sunday being it's OD. I'm pretty sure after the record breaking performance by FF7, they don't want TA2 to do the same. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

F7 projected total 2.2~2.3B Similar movie quality, similar schedule condition. TA2 might skew slightly younger demo but its wanttosee across all ticketbuying sites is remarkably more than that of F7 through the same timepoint. So it shouldn't fall too far off. That's just my consideration.

[keysersoze123]

Furious 7 got 70% or more screens. Can AOU get the same. I thought there are couple of local films which would still keep some screens.

[POTUS 2020]

Does F7 still have an outside chance of 400?

 

If it can hold above 40m this weekend for a 330m+ total, the May holiday could give it a chance. Here is last years numbers:

 

			April	30	to	May	3 Bump
	Classmate								CA2
April	Yuan	May	Yuan	Pre/wk		April	Yuan	Prev/wk	May	Yuan	Prev/wk
		W A30	29			Wed	7.0		W A30	5.5	-14%
Thu		Thu M1	51			Thu	7.0	-45%	Th M1	11	57%
Fri	22.0	Fri M2	46	109%		Fri	5.8	-51%	Fri M2	13	124%
Sat	39.3	Sat M3	32	-19%		Sat	10.4	53%	Sat M3	8	-23%
Sun	36.5	Sun	13	-64%		Sun	9.0	-53%	Sun	closed
Mon	21.4					Mon	4.7	-47%
Tue	18.7					Tue	2.8	-61%
Fri-Sat	61	Fri-Sat	78	27.2%		W-Sat	30.2		W-Sat	38	24.2%
Multiply	8.3	x Tues=	W-Sat			Multiply	13.5	xTues=	W-Sat

 

There is a 4 day bump for the holidays, Apr 30th is the night before it starts and sees an increase. CA2, dealing with a smaller number here, bumped 24% wed to sat.  Classmate which opened the Friday before saw a similar increase for Friday and Saturday. this pattern could bring in $50m, Another way to look at it is the 4/29 multiple. The multiple times Tues the 29th was huge last year. 8 CM and 13 for CA2. If FF7 could come in at 30mY on Wed the 29th then it could be worth 250mY-360mY, $40-60m, if it could follow suit and bring it close enough to 400m for the final week to have a chance.

Edited April 21, 2015 by No Prisoners

[Asyulus]

I hope Furious 7 stops at $400.000001M , that would be amazing

[Olive]

Tuesday(4/21/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.Furious 7: 63M~1687M~$272M  #2 all time grosser

2.Ever Since We Love: 11.4M~95.3M~$15.4M

3.Wolf Warriors: 5.7M~501M~$80.8M

4.Mortdecai: 2.1M~17.2M~$2.8M

5.The Queens:0.8M~13.5M~$2.2M

 

 

 (Current exchange rate $=6.208 Yuan). 

[#ED]

10M Tuesday? Not bad.