China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

7M+ Thursday?

 

What kinda of increase can we expect through out the week?

Last weekend did 5 times thursday.hopefully at least that.

[BadAtGender]

So something like 320 or so after the weekend?

[POTUS 2020]

		TF4								FF7
Day	Yuan	% +/-	Last Week	% BO -OW	Total	$ Tot		Yuan	% +/-	Last Week	TF4 vs FF7	Total	$ Tot	% Cume	TF4 Mltplr	DayxM +OW	$Proj
Fri	195				195	32
Sat	223	14.4%			418	69		51	- MN
Sun	213	-4.6%			631	103		347			63.1%	398	64	-37.9%
Mon	123	-42.1%		9.07	754	124		184	-47.0%		49.5%	582	94	-24.0%	11.03	2,421	390
Tues	112	-8.9%		8.25	866	142		167	-9.2%		48.8%	749	121	-14.9%	12.12	2,416	389
Wed	95	-15.7%		6.97	961	157		137	-18.0%		44.8%	886	143	-9.3%	14.35	2,358	380
Thur	84	-11.0%		6.21	1045	171		114	-16.8%		35.4%	1000	161	-5.8%	16.10	2,228	359
Fri	87	3.4%	-55.3%	6.42	1132	186		142	24.6%		63.0%	1142	184	-0.7%	15.58	2,604	419
Sat	130	48.8%	-41.9%	9.55	1262	207		225	58.5%		73.6%	1367	220	6.6%	10.47	2,748	443
Sun	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	8.69	1379	226		184	-18.2%	-47.0%	56.1%	1551	250	10.6%	11.51	2,509	404
Mon	54	-58.33%	-56.1%	4.02	1433	235		72	-60.9%	-60.9%	33.3%	1623	262	11.4%	24.85	2,181	351
Tue	53	-1.85%	-52.8%	3.95	1486	244		63	-12.5%	-62.3%	18.9%	1686	272	11.6%	25.32	1,987	320
Wed	43	-18.87%	-54.5%	3.20	1529	251		51	-19.0%	-62.8%	18.6%	1737	280	11.7%	31.21	1,984	319
Thu	39	-9.30%	-53.7%	2.91	1568	257		45	-11.8%	-60.5%	15.4%	1782	287	11.8%	34.41	1,940	312
Fri	42	7.69%	-51.8%	3.13	1610	264
Sat	62	47.62%	-52.2%	4.62	1672	274
Sun	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	4.32	1730	284
															Average	Proj	371
		Str8 Up
TF/FF	Day	TF4	FF7	%Cume				TF4			Fri	to	Thu		FF7
F/Su	1	195	398	104.3%					Yuan	$$$	+/-	Yuan	$$$	+/-	TF v FF
S/M	2	223	184	39.4%				Wk1	1045	171		1000	161		-4.3%
S/T	3	213	167	18.8%				Wk2	524	86	-49.9%	782	126	-21.8%	49.4%
M/W	4	123	137	17.5%				Wk3	256	42	-51.1%	390	63	-50.1%	52.3%	Proj w	Ap 30
T/Th	5	112	114	15.5%				Wk4	81	13	-68.4%	300	48	-23.1%	270.4%	Proj w	M1,2.3
W/F	6	95	142	18.9%				Wk5	42	7	-48.1%	75	12	-75.0%	78.6%
Th/S	7	84	225	30.8%				Tot	1947.4	319		2547	411		30.8%
F/Su	8	87	184	37.0%
S/M	9	130	72	28.7%
S/T	10	118	63	22.2%
M/W	11	54	51	21.2%
T/Th	12	53	45	20.0%
	Total	1486	1782	19.9%
	Tot $	244	287	18.0%
Proj$	30	319	376	18.0%

                      

 

Drops were steep this week but it still out performed TF4s second summer Thursday by 15%. The weekend bump should be larger from Thursday being that it is not summer. Looking for at least 5x Thursday like last week for 37.5m and a cume of 325m+. This size of this number is doubly important as it could be mirrored next weekend during the holidays.

Edited April 23, 2015 by No Prisoners

[Pypa94]

Th actuals

44,6 yuan cume 1,790 mln yuan

[Olive]

Friday(4/24/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.Furious 7: 58M~1848M~$298.3M  #2 all time grosser

2.The Left Ear: 53.4M~53.4M~$8.6M

3.Home: 7.2M~7.2M~$1.2M

4.Ever Since We Love: 6.3M~124M~$20M

5.Sabotage:5.6M~5.6M~$0.9M

 

 

 (Current exchange rate $=6.201 Yuan). 

[#ED]

27% increase? Not bad?

50% increase Saturday?

[Quigley]

FF7 is headed for ~60% drop from last weekend, i.e. around $36M. Don't think it can reach $400M. I think all other OS markets will add up to about $35M so this weekend will be $68-74M.

[POTUS 2020]

		TF4								FF7
Day	Yuan	% +/-	Last Week	Total	$ Tot		Yuan	% +/-	Last Week	TF4 vs FF7	Total	$ Tot	% Cume
Fri	195			195	32
Sat	223	14.4%		418	69		51	- MN
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103		347			63.1%	398	64	-37.9%
Mon	123	-42.1%		754	124		185	-46.7%		50.3%	583	94	-23.9%
Tues	112	-8.9%		866	142		167	-9.7%		48.8%	750	121	-14.8%
Wed	95	-15.7%		961	157		137	-18.0%		44.8%	887	143	-9.2%
Thur	84	-11.0%		1045	171		115	-16.1%		36.6%	1002	162	-5.6%
Fri	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186		142	23.5%		63.0%	1144	185	-0.6%
Sat	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207		226	59.2%		74.4%	1370	221	6.8%
Sun	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226		185	-18.1%	-46.7%	56.9%	1555	251	10.9%
Mon	54	-58.33%	-56.1%	1433	235		73	-60.5%	-60.5%	35.2%	1628	263	11.7%
Tue	53	-1.85%	-52.8%	1486	244		64	-12.3%	-61.7%	20.8%	1692	273	12.0%
Wed	43	-18.87%	-54.5%	1529	251		52	-18.8%	-62.0%	20.9%	1744	281	12.2%
Thu	39	-9.30%	-53.7%	1568	257		45	-13.5%	-60.9%	15.4%	1789	289	12.2%
Fri	42	7.69%	-51.8%	1610	264		58	28.9%	-59.2%	38.1%	1847	298	12.8%
Sat	62	47.62%	-52.2%	1672	274	p	92	58.6%	-59.3%	48.4%	1939	313	14.1%
Sun	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284	p	75	-18.5%	-59.5%	29.3%	2014	325	14.5%

 

 

Nice bump from Thursday but still down 59% from last Friday. Its enough however to give it a chance at 400m with the May Day bump

[#ED]

Silly question. When is May Day?

[grim22]

Silly question. When is May Day?

 

May 1st. This year and next year will see lower May Day bumps as it falls on the weekend as opposed to mid-week. A mid-week holiday makes people treat it as a holiday week instead of a single day.

Edited April 24, 2015 by grim22

[Cynosure]

1st of may.

[Fake]

Very good Friday bump

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Weekend could be 58/100/80, Probably will finish around $360m. Latest projection: http://imgsrc.baidu.com/forum/pic/item/5bdc8b510fb30f2405b7be24cd95d143ad4b03b8.jpg

[POTUS 2020]

Silly question. When is May Day?

May Day is May 1 in many countries.The China holiday is May 1,2,3. Evening of April 30th bumps as well.

 

May 1st. This year and next year will see lower May Day bumps as it falls on the weekend as opposed to mid-week. A mid-week holiday makes people treat it as a holiday week instead of a single day.

Friday and Saturday are workdays so the bump still happens in a big way compared to a regular weekend, but yes , Monday thru Wednesday would be a bigger boost, 

 

			April	30	-	May	3 Bump
	Classmate							CA2
April	Yuan	May	Yuan	Pre/wk	April	Yuan	Prev/wk	May	Yuan	Prev/wk
		W A30	29		Wed	7.0		W A30	5.5	-14%
Thu		Thu M1	51		Thu	7.0	-45%	Th M1	11	57%
Fri	22.0	Fri M2	46	109%	Fri	5.8	-51%	Fri M2	13	124%
Sat	39.3	Sat M3	32	-19%	Sat	10.4	53%	Sat M3	8	-23%
Sun	36.5	Sun	13	-64%	Sun	9.0	-53%	Sun	closed
Mon	21.4				Mon	4.7	-47%
Tue	18.7				Tue	2.8	-61%
Fri-Sat	61	Fri-Sat	78	27.2%	W-Sat	30.2		W-Sat	38	24.2%
Fri-Mon	119.2	W-Sat	158	32.6%
				May	Day
		CM		Week -	Week			CA2
	F-M	W-Sa	Increase				W-Sa	W-Sa	Increase
	119.2	158	32.6%				30.2	37.5	24.2%
$	19.5	25.9	32.6%			$	5.0	6.1	24.2%
		FF7	???					FF7	???
	Th-Su	Th-Su	Increase				Th-Su	Th-Su	Increase
	270	358	32.6%				270	335	24.2%
	44.3	58.7	32.6%				44.3	55.0	24.2%

    

Class mates was a hit and managed beat its opening 4 days by 32% on the 30th to the 3rd.

CA2 was at the end of its run, the numbers are small and the same effect happened

Other movies fell but they were not hits.

Should FF7 get a bump it could be as high as 390+ by Sunday with 8 days to go

Edited April 24, 2015 by No Prisoners

[A Marvel Fanboy]

390m+ by next Sunday (5.3), really ?? I love the table you make but I think you need to chill down a little tiny bit..... you do know Helios and Silent Separation open next Thursday, right ....

[POTUS 2020]

390m+ by next Sunday (5.3), really ?? I love the table you make but I think you need to chill down a little tiny bit..... you do know Helios and Silent Separation open next Thursday, right ....

Its a best case scenario based on an observation of historical data presented as a possibility. As in "should it bump it could be"...

 

I will not chill down.

 

You need to chill up

 

It was obvious to me since day 1 it would get deep into the 300's when you were talking 270.  You're not omniscient. Stop pretending to be so.

[POTUS 2020]

Weekend could be 58/100/80, Probably will finish around $360m. Latest projection: http://imgsrc.baidu.com/forum/pic/item/5bdc8b510fb30f2405b7be24cd95d143ad4b03b8.jpg

 

75% drop? Really? Did you get this out of the Chinese BO Handbook; "all movies must drop 75% in week 4". Did you take into account that its biggest movie of all time? or that its a holiday weekend and holdovers can perform well? Or did you put the same amount of thought into this as Forrest Gump put into Shrimpin'.

 

OK Ill go with 335Y Thursday thru Sunday, not my actual prediction, just best case scenario, to your  88Y just to show how wrong you are, lol. over under 211,5  we'll see next week.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Your $390m by next Sunday best case scenario is a pipe dream (best scenario should be $365m by May 3, even without those openers next week. but what do I know )

Yes I did predict $270m even after that OD, apparently I was too conservative and pessimistic. however did you say $200m more after last Sunday's cume of $251m. Is F7 still making to your $450m ? As a poor predictor, I just can't tell at all.

Clearly you know CBO better than me and probably anyone else, because you are the know-them-all box officer master .... No Prisoners. What a lame BO predictor I am, competely unaware of the fact that it's a holiday weekend or how should holdovers performers or the movies coming out. I admit that I simply know very little about CBO.

So I should, and will, just quit predicting. In fact, I have already been posting very little on the forums in the past year, realizing how incompetent my bo knownledge is and how many execellent bo watchers are out there. After all, the world doesnot need a failed predictor.

[POTUS 2020]

Yes I did predict $270m even after that OD, apparently I was too conservative and pessimistic. however did you say $200m more after last Sunday's cume of $251m. Is F7 still making to your $450m ? As a poor predictor, I just can't tell at all.

 

I raised a question not a statement, learn the difference.

[Plain Old Tele]

Moderation:

 

Settle down, you guys. It's possible to disagree without throwing shade at each other.