China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

LiHK						TF4					MH
Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Thur	10			10	2						165			165	27
Fri	200			210	34	195			195	32	132			297	48
Sat	246	23.0%		456	72	223	14.4%		418	69	188	42.4%		485	78
Sun	225	-8.5%		681	107	213	-4.6%		631	103	184	-2.1%		669	108
Mon	91	-59.6%		772	121	123	-42.1%		754	124	110	-40.2%		779	125
Tues	75	-17.6%		847	133	112	-8.9%		866	142	103	-6.4%		882	142
Wed	90	20.0%		937	147	95	-15.7%		961	157	85	-17.5%		967	156
Thur	125	38.9%		1062	167	84	-11.0%		1045	171	83	-2.4%	-49.7%	1050	169
Fri	105	-16.0%	-47.5%	1167	183	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186	81	-2.4%	-38.6%	1131	182
Sat	88	-16.2%	-64.2%	1255	197	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207	121	49.4%	-35.6%	1252	202
Sun	72	-18.2%	-68.0%	1327	209	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226	125	3.3%	-32.1%	1377	222
Mon	65	-9.7%	-28.6%	1392	219	54	-58.3%	-56.1%	1433	235	64	-48.8%	-41.8%	1441	232
Tue	55	-15.4%	-26.7%	1447	228	53	-1.9%	-52.8%	1486	244	62	-3.1%	-39.8%	1503	242
Wed	35	-36.4%	-61.1%	1482	233	43	-18.9%	-54.5%	1529	251	57	-8.1%	-32.9%	1560	251
Thu	15	-57.1%	-88.0%	1497	235	39	-9.3%	-53.7%	1568	257	44	-22.8%	-47.0%	1604	258
Fri	14	-10.0%	-87.1%	1510.5	238	42	7.7%	-51.8%	1610	264	47	6.8%	-42.0%	1651	266
Sat	18	33.3%	-79.5%	1528.5	240	62	47.6%	-52.2%	1672	274	78	66.0%	-35.5%	1729	278
Sun	28	55.6%	-61.1%	1556.5	245	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284	72	-7.69%	-42.4%	1801	290
Mon	12	-57.1%	-81.5%	1568.5	247	26	-55.2%	-51.9%	1756	288	38	-47.2%	-40.6%	1839	296
Tue	11	-10.0%	-80.4%	1579.3	248	28	7.7%	-47.2%	1784	293	36	-5.3%	-41.9%	1875	302
Wed	10	-10.2%	-72.3%	1589	250	23	-17.9%	-46.5%	1807	296	30	-16.7%	-47.4%	1905	307
Thu	8	-17.5%	-46.7%	1597	262	18	-21.7%	-53.8%	1825	299	27	-10.0%	-38.6%	1932	311
Fri						18	0.0%	-57.1%	1843	302	28.5	5.6%	-39.4%	1961	316
Sat						24	33.3%	-61.3%	1867	306	44.4	55.8%	-43.1%	2005	323
Sun						20	-16.7%	-65.5%	1887	309	46.9	5.63%	-34.9%	2052	330
Mon						10	-50.0%	-61.5%	1897	311	23.4	-50.1%	-38.4%	2075	334
Tue						10	0.0%	-64.3%	1907	313	24.3	3.8%	-32.5%	2100	338
Wed						10	0.0%	-56.5%	1917	314	20.8	-14.4%	-30.7%	2120	341
Thu						9	-10.0%	-50.0%	1926	316	16.2	-22.1%	-40.0%	2137	344
Fri						11	22.2%	-38.9%	1937	318	18.3	13.0%	-35.8%	2155	347
Sat						11	0.0%	-54.2%	1948	319	28.7	56.8%	-35.4%	2184	351
Sun											28.9	0.70%	-38.4%	2212	356
Mon											13.9	-51.9%	-40.6%	2226	358
Tue											13.9	0.0%	-42.8%	2240	360
			Proj	1700	267				1948	319				2440	391

Falling fast and projection lowered to 1.675-1.7B if it can maintain 50-60% drops after next week.

LIT was a surprise hit and had long legs. This is standard sequel frontloadedness but overall a good performance improving 38% on the first installment. Cant sneeze at 1.7B.

[Infernus]

Firedeep did predict 85m - go back to earlier pages and you'll find the predictions. Am not just saying anything

And just as you have the right to be annoyed, I have the right to voice my opinions. And I didn't say that multiple times here on this thread. Maybe you also confused this with the Minions OS thread which I post to regularly with updates.

I know he did but that was a lone much-higher-than-avg prediction. It wasn't equal to predicting 150 for minions rather closer to probably predicting 200m for it. And if he predicted that than he'll be the one saying it flopped. Us not calling it the same for it being close to our predictions does not mean we are biased. If there are more people calling minions a flop than its because it highly disappointed a lot more people too. That's not bias.

[Mojoguy]

China doing what they do best, ignoring Pixar.

 

IO under MU.

[Olive]

China doing what they do best, ignoring Pixar.

 

IO under MU.

IO is likely finishing under UP... A major disappointment.

[Olive]

Friday Est

Goodbye Mr. Loser:57.6M/708M

LiHK: 13M/15.16M

Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 11M/601M

Saving Mr Wu: 6.6M/152M

Inside out  3.1m/55.2m

Minions 0.2M/432.5M

[POTUS 2020]

Presales up 30%+ across the board today

 

IO looking to bump up to 8-10m. 100m/$15m looking out of reach

LiHK to 18-20m

 

GBL holding nearly flat yesterday, should get over 80m w presales up 50%.

Tomorrow will be interesting to see if it makes a new daily high. Definitely possible, its up to 35% of shows, doubled from last saturday

[Gabriel Sales]

I am sad to know that Inside Out is not doing good numbers in China actually did not imagine that the Chinese market was so unpredictable, how can a people ridiculous movies like "Transformers" and snub fantastic animations as 'Inside Out'!

Edited October 10, 2015 by Gabriel Sales

[Mojoguy]

IO is likely finishing under UP... A major disappointment.

Finding Dory is doomed in China. DOOMED!

[sgchn40]

I am sad to know that Inside Out is not doing good numbers in China actually did not imagine that the Chinese market was so unpredictable, how can a people ridiculous movies like "Transformers" and snub fantastic animations as 'Inside Out'!

Many Chinese watch Transformers cartoon as a kid. There is a Chinese subplot.

IO has no fast cars and is too adult.

[MinaTakla]

If Dory doesn't make any money in China...can it still beat Frozen WW?

I think Japan is the key to this. Possibly yes.

[KP1025]

I think Dory will do fine in China. Unlike IO's human-centered and more mature plot, Dory will have plenty of comedy and talking animal characters. It should definitely be better received among young children and families, even if they lack the brand awareness. 

[Infernus]

Finding Dory is doomed in China. DOOMED!

 

Why? Did IO fail to become a hit because it was Pixar's? I don't think so. It just wasn't suited to their taste.. Why then would that mean doom for completely unrelated, but for the same studio, future movies? If it suits their taste or more simply - if they just like it, it will become a hit, else not. It completely depends on that film itself and not on how other films perform except, of course, in sequel and universe-sharing cases. And so I'd take the occasion to ask a more relevant question - how much did Finding Nemo make in China?

[peludo]

Nemo did $4m in 2003, behind HP2 (6.4) and over POTC (2.7) and The Two Towers (2.5). Quite good IMO

[Infernus]

Nemo did $4m in 2003, behind HP2 (6.4) and over POTC (2.7) and The Two Towers (2.5). Quite good IMO

Er...on mathematically adjusting it to the box-office wise market growth since 2003, that actually translates to 190.5m in 2016 ... Not that I am saying it would grow exactly that way (but then others have, so why not?) but that does increase hopes, I guess.

Edited October 10, 2015 by Infernus

[Olive]

Saturday Est

Goodbye Mr. Loser:84.4M/793M

LiHK: 18.5M/1536M

Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 16.3M/628M

Saving Mr Wu: 8.4M/160M

Inside out  7.0m/62.3m

Minions 0.4M/434M

[sgchn40]

Saturday Est

Goodbye Mr. Loser:84.4M/793M

LiHK: 18.5M/1536M

Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 16.3M/628M

Saving Mr Wu: 8.4M/160M

Inside out 7.0m/62.3m

Minions 0.4M/434M

So GML gross is 4 times that of LiHK and more than the rest of the top 5 combined for two consecutive days... Incredible!

[terrestrial]

I don't like how people start bashing an entire country just because their preferred movies don't do so well over there. Not everyone is obliged to have the same taste in movies as you.

 

Agree.

What people also too often seem to forget:

what is funny, what is considered 'correct' behaviour with a family, friends school, work.... differs from culture to culture, how to behave bewteen genders, human rights,... thousands of differences, that can influence how citiy people, countryside people.... preceive a story

Also translation can be good or bad and so on

 

That certain movies end so high on the top worldwide list is also because certain movies get a higher possibility to get shown in many countries and non US... local movies often only in one country or a region = IMHO a more in depth look into BO details per country is needed for a real impression of the tastes per resion/country/...

 

Or what kind of movies ere shown shortly before, is the market even still 'hungry' for movie xy?

 

And how watch the majority a movie, per computer or on the big screen? For what kind of movies a big screen is considerd 'still worth ir to go to'?

 

Did another country even get to see the same version? Got scenes adeed or cut?

 

and so on....

Edited October 10, 2015 by terrestrial

[POTUS 2020]

GBL tracking to have its highest daily gross to 120m+. Will depend how strong the evening is.

The rest of the top 5 is looking at 20-30% bumps. LiHK will be down 66% w/o/w for the second week in a row.

IO 9-10m.

[Lihongkim]

GBL tracking to have its highest daily gross to 120m+. Will depend how strong the evening is.

The rest of the top 5 is looking at 20-30% bumps. LiHK will be down 66% w/o/w for the second week in a row.

IO 9-10m.

Really great GML!!!

Will it pass LiHK? I wish (-:

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Local movies are doing great. GML looks to be very close to LiHK !

 

Box office share of local films this year looks to settle in the 65%+ range, the best share ever. But Hollywood should be happy that they are being beaten by local movies in China. Bescause of so, maybe they can get more films imported, starting 2017.

 

There have been a handful of quality homegrown films this year: Jian bing Man, Moneky King, Monster Hunt, Mr. Tumor, and now GML, all became big hits. LiHK had its problems but was definitely above average, even in Hollywood's comedy standards, (its box office dropped quck because GML stole its thunder). Even Macao 2 was a guilty pleaser, bad but very entertaining. 

 

On the smaller ones, The Dead End, 12 Citizens, and upcoming The Coffin in the Mountain (10.16), etc. all receiving stellar reviews. Saving Mr Wu didn't really become a hit but as a crime drama, it's hardly doing any bad. 

 

I think there is a clear trend here: more quality local films are coming out than ever, likely at an increasing rate. This is destined to happen, with the market getting bigger, better and more invests.

 

Even in the animation field, besides TMK, Little Door Guardians (2016), Crazy Nian (2016) and Da Hai (2016) all look to be quality hits to come. The days of Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf are over.

 

I think the market has reached this stage: 

 

after all these years, many Chinese audience are finally getting tired of those apocalyptic, save-the-world popcorn movies Hollywood produce, except those unique high concept univsersal movies like Avengers, Jurassic World and Fast Furious——but the number of such movies each year can be counted by one or two hands. Meanwhile, they are not ready for those Hollywood Oscar movies (these movies are hardly getting imported into China but you can guess the outturns even if they are imported). In fact, will they ever be ready for those dramas and biopics about the problems of minority persons from the First World ? their level of life, their mood, their interests are not there, yet. GML is about a troubled middle aged man who finds the right definiation of being successful. It's a low theme, relatively, but that's why it connects with general Chinese audience. Romances, Breakups (as Breakup Buddies, Breakup Buddies portrayed), troubled marriages ( Breakup Buddies, LiHK), stressful life and work portrayed in the form of comedies ... are what resonate better with them, not brilliant ideas of changing the world in biopics like The Imitation Game and Jobs (even though they all know about Steve Jobs), homoerotism, trangender or cross-cultural transitions. Let's be real, even in North America, such dramas can rarely compete with Avengers or Star Wars.

 

At the same time, they kind of find the replacement: homegrown contents with increasing quality.

 

Since the beginning of the year, there are always some local contents in the market that keep people intersted in, keep them talking about. This is what is happenning in my opinion. (The market regulation is always there. Why this year the share of foreign movies is falling so hard ?) Take me for example, for the past decade, I tried to avoid as many local films as I could. I knew they were terrible. I ended up watching about two thousand foreign movies (hardly anything for a movie buffy). But since last year, I have been open to check out more and more local movies. I didn't know when this exactly began but it is indeed happenning. And it is definitely not just me.

 

 

My view stands that without SARFT's censorship which is simply killing the creations (China's film censorship is different to any other country, any time of any other country, but that is another topic), China's homegrown films would be much better, probably as good as Hollywood movies, in one decade. Of course, with the absence of the censorship (which would mean basically no regulation), Hollywood could also get full access to China's film market. No censorship, no regulation, just a grading system, homegrown contents would still beat imported contents. So it's safe to say that SARFT's censorship is both a good thing and a bad thing to both China and Hollywood. But overall, it is absolutly a bad thing for the market itself.

 

Here is great article about this trend:

hollywoods-grip-on-chinas-movie-audience-is-fading-fast

Edited October 11, 2015 by firedeep