China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[IronJimbo]

What are we estimating Warcraft to make?

[Rentaro1989]

27 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

What are we estimating Warcraft to make?

I  predict a number between 430-470 mil

[POTUS 2020]

20 hours ago, picores said:

If it's indeed at 450m by Tuesday...could it crack 100m USD in the end or is it too much to ask?

 Actual came in at 110m. It's on course for 140-145m today. 30%~ increase  which is decent.

105m Sun

32m  Mon

25m Tues 

425m WC open MN

But it may be able to hold ok if WC stays within the demo and it is looking like that is the case...

17 hours ago, zackzack said:

Warcraft presale still going insane or..not?

It is not picking up the pace. Less than 15% increase per day now but growimg steady at 5m. I am really thinking we aren't going to see what we were thinking. PS could finish under 125m at the projected rate when comparing to CA3 and XMAs daily increases. The PS multi could be low, 2-2.5x. Possibly an OD in the mid 200s

10 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

What are we estimating Warcraft to make?

Bad legs will result in sub 1.3b/ $200m total as it doesn't look like the GA is jumping on board with the PS.

[POTUS 2020]

On Saturday, May 28, 2016 at 8:08 PM, No Prisoners said:

 

                         CA3.                    XMA                  WC                  

Days out    MN        OD               OD               MN      OD

0000 13                                                                         15m

0000 12                                                                         16

0000  11                                                                        17

0000  10                                                                        18

0000.   9     0.1m   0.3m              0.0m          18         20

0000    8     0.8       2.4                 2.3              19         23+15%

0000    7     1.2       3.6 +50%      3.2 +39%    20        27 +18%

0000    6     1.8       6.2 +72%      4.2 +31%    21.9     31.5 +17%

0000    5     2.1       8.1 +31%      4.9 +16%    23.5     35.9 +14%

0000    4     2.8.    11.9 +47%      6.2 +27%    24.8    40.8 +14%

0000    3     3.5     16.3 +37%      9.0 +45%

0000    2     4.8     25.4 +56%    11.1 +23%

0000    1     6.4     37.9 +50%    17.8 +60%

0000  OD  18.1     65.8 +75%    31.6 +78%

                                                    

CA3 OD Fri 5/6

OD Total  181m           PSxMao   2.75        
OW Total 625m           Total

OD  Multi.                      OW Multi

2.75 PS multi is in line with the norm for tentpoles

 

XMA OD Fri 6/3

OD Total   110m           PSxMao   3.48
OW Total.                      Total

OD  Multi.                      OW Multi

 

WC OD Wed 6/8

OD Total                        PSxMao  
OW Total                       Total

OD  Multi.                      OW Multi

 

WC is on pace to 5m more today for 46m total. If it were to add 33% like CA3 on sun and mon, 2 and 1 days out, then 75% on Tuesday it comes to 140m. IF. That's why I'm thinking lower than 125m PS.

Gun to my head. 

50m MN

225m OD

1.1B total

Could be much higher, we'll see, but it could also be much lower...

 

XMA was looking bleak, then PS picked up on the final 2 days and the PS multi came in much higher than CA3.  It was also looking bleak for XMAs legs, but WC may not crush them as badly. 

 

Edited June 4, 2016 by No Prisoners

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

 Actual came in at 110m. It's on course for 140-145m today. 30%~ increase  which is decent.

105m Sun

32m  Mon

25m Tues 

425m WC open MN

But it may be able to hold ok if WC stays within the demo and it is looking like that is the case...

It is not picking up the pace. Less than 15% increase per day now but growimg steady at 5m. I am really thinking we aren't going to see what we were thinking. PS could finish under 125m at the projected rate when comparing to CA3 and XMAs daily increases. The PS multi could be low, 2-2.5x. Possibly an OD in the mid 200s

Bad legs will result in sub 1.3b/ $200m total as it doesn't look like the GA is jumping on board with the PS.

 

I think the monday drop will be better. I am thinking 60%. its not a kids flick.

[POTUS 2020]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I think the monday drop will be better. I am thinking 60%. its not a kids flick.

Kids is 75-80%

SH has been 67-72% depending on wom spillover and/or the age it skews.  CA3 was 67%, BVS was 70%. 

I threw in 70% to be conservative. 60% would be a big hold.

[Blackout]

how's XMA doing today?

[Olive]

Saturday Est
X-A 152M/272m
Alice 19.5m/309m
Angry B 17.5m/456m
CW 1.65m/1245m

[XMenSaga]

is it possible to see China updates also in $?

Im having a hard time finding that post that actually puts a clean number, lol. Could anyone post the Friday & saturday numbers of X-Men? 

Edited June 4, 2016 by XMenSaga

[Olive]

Exchange rate varies from 6.4-6.6 in recent months, I don't know studio report $ numbers based on which ER.

[seduh]

great opening for XMA, it's a pitty it had such a bad release date (it made more on it's first satuday than in USA). ALso, It already made more than DOFP on it's OW. Iw will end doing $56 OW for a $90-100 final

[picores]

Very good numbers for X-Men after all the doom and gloom...

[Olive]

X-men Has decent WOM from GA, better than CW and and way better than BVS

[POTUS 2020]

32 minutes ago, picores said:

Very good numbers for X-Men after all the doom and gloom...

Yup, nice to have a surprise to the upside for a change. Really wasn't looking good 3 days out. Now wed storm has been downgraded from a Cat 5 to a Cat 2 and could be downgraded to a tropical storm by monday. XMA may have some legs, 660m/ $100m+ possible.

[Finnick]

450M OS seems locked now with China good numbers. If the WW cum will be more than 600M, thats not bad after all even it is a huge setback from DOFP numbers.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, XMenSaga said:

is it possible to see China updates also in $?

Im having a hard time finding that post that actually puts a clean number, lol. Could anyone post the Friday & saturday numbers of X-Men? 

Its been in the mid 6.50s per $  recently. 

Was 6.57 Friday. I assume studios use the most recent XR for accounting.

¥7.6m/  $1.56m. MN

¥110m/ $16.74m

¥150m/ $22.83m

¥110m/ $16.74m sun est

¥378m/ $55.5m weekend +53% over ¥246m DoFP OW. 

Edited June 4, 2016 by No Prisoners

[ttr]

Saturday Est

X-A 152M/272m

Alice 19.5m/309m

Angry B 17.5m/456m

CW 1.65m/1245m

Very happy with the AB total. Also Alice is doing fine when compared to its success every where else. My two cents...[emoji53]

[XMenSaga]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

Its been in the mid 6.50s per $  recently. 

Was 6.57 Friday. I assume studios use the most recent XR for accounting.

¥7.6m/  $1.56m. MN

¥110m/ $16.74m

¥150m/ $22.83m

¥110m/ $16.74m sun est

¥378m/ $55.5m weekend +53% over ¥246m DoFP OW. 

 

thanks. hopefully the final number its closer to 60m than 55m. 

[Olive]

Sunday Est
X-A 114M/383m[OW=$58.2m]
Alice 15.3m/323m
Angry B 15.1m/470m
CW 1.3m/1246m [ End of run with $191.2M]
 

[superweirdo87]

Thanks Olive!