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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

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It's currently the 21st highest grossing film of all time in China after 2 weeks of release. Which is incredible.

 

I think it'll beat KFP3 for the 13th highest grossing film, and it can overtake MI4, for #12. Is there any shot that PR can overtake Let The Bullets Fly 674M to become #10?

The highest PR can go is overtaking KFP3 ... forget MI4 ...

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Weekly (8.5~8.11):

 

1. PR ---- 206M ---- 486M

2. TT2 ---- 164M ---- 164M

3. FF6 ---- 50M ---- 390M

4. ONS ---- 43M ---- 43M

5. ILW2 ---- 22M ---- 64M

Sunday PR went up to nearly 33M. So:

 

 

Weekly (8.5~8.11):

 

1. PR ---- 209M ---- 489M $78.8M

2. TT2 ---- 164M ---- 164M 

3. FF6 ---- 50M ---- 390M $62.9M

4. ONS ---- 45M ---- 45M

5. ILW2 ---- 22M ---- 64M

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Sunday PR went up to nearly 33M. So:

 

 

Weekly (8.5~8.11):

 

1. PR ---- 209M ---- 489M $78.8M

2. TT2 ---- 164M ---- 164M 

3. FF6 ---- 50M ---- 390M $62.9M

4. ONS ---- 45M ---- 45M

5. ILW2 ---- 22M ---- 64M

Great! Now maybe it won't lose too many screenings since it is doing the best business. :)

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Monday looks like TT2 19~20M (only down 33% from Sunday), PR 15~16M, ONS 10~11M (strong hold too).

 

As expected TT2 does better weekdays. PR totaled over the 500M mark.

Would you feel confident in saying $100M is a lock for PR?

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No .... 600M $97m is very likely though.

 

It only has three more weeks run, including this week. And always the last week does little for movies.

 

The best scenario in theory: 280 + 209 + 100 (-52%) + 50 (-50%) + 25 (-50%) =665M $107M . Not happening.

 

The realistic scenario: 280 + 209 + 90 (-57%) + 35 (-62%) + 10 (-72%) =625M $100M. Tough but not impossible.

 

What to be noticed is that JP3D and MU will be released on Aug 20 (next Tuesday) and Aug 23 (next Friday) respectively. And once the two movies release, PR will have its true and powerful competitor, as they are all big Hollywood movies. PR will lose its advantages among theater managers. Movies drop very hard, usually around 70% and 90%, in last two weeks of run. So $100M is no lock.

 

Check FF6: it did great in first 5 days with normal daily changes. But once another Hollywood blockbuster, PR, got released, FF6 dropped 70% on 2nd Fri-Sunday (180M to 54M); then another 69% weekly drop on third week (160m to 50m). Its 4th week will be lucky to do even 10M (-80%). And a 5th week doesnot even matter at all.

Edited by firedeep
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