China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[A Marvel Fanboy]

BRAVE update please.Meanwhile, China sucks. #badmove

Slightly less than 30M yuan ($4.7M). Run closed.

[Fullbuster]

No TDKR in China??? Damn...From the other hand it's a good thing for TASM..

[kayumanggi]

Slightly less than 30M yuan ($4.7M). Run closed.

Thanks. That was a fast run.

[fmpro]

No TDKR in China??? Damn...From the other hand it's a good thing for TASM..

Great for TASM

[John Marston]

It sucks. That TDKR Might not get released. Can TDKR even pass 600m overseas now?

[Rudolf]

It sucks. That TDKR Might not get released. Can TDKR even pass 600m overseas now?

hard to sayit is first released in SH-friendly countries - there it seems to do okelsewhere?

[Fullbuster]

Great for TASM

$100m for TASM in China

[kayumanggi]

$100m for TASM in China

That is one very important 100 M.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

China Box Office Weekly Forecast (July 27 ~ July 29)

Continental Drift Aims to End the Ice Age at China Box Office

10 years later, 100 times bigger.

By Firedeep, July 22, 15pm, 2012

Finally, after no Hollywood films released for more than one month, this weekend comes Ice Age: Continental Drift, the forth installment in the beloved animation series from 20th Century Fox and Blue Sky studios.

As we have known, the protection for local films, begun June 20, ruined the summer for both theaters and movie-goers. In the past 30 days, out of the roughly 1.1B yuan overal revenue at China box office, more than 1B gross comes from local titles. And the protection, which seen as a regulate at the film market by the government after Hollywood took away a share of two-third in the first 6 months early the year, wont end until September, leaving Fox's Continental Drift and Universal's Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, two animations, the only Hollywood releases during the 2 month protection period.

So what numbers Continental Drift can do at the box office becomes a little more interesting to watch. 4 days to go before it hits theaters, the animation has got 9743 wants to see on Mtime, the nation's biggest movie site. That is a huge number for a family animation. With huge awareness and barly no competitors for a whole month, IA4 will no doubt do seriously big business. Question: do IA4 has a shot at being the biggest animation released ever in China ? That needs it to gross more than 640M yuan, beating huge hit Kungfu Panda 2. Tough, but not possible. But if it does it, it will hold that record until KFP3.

Ice Age 5.35M yuan 2002

Ice Age 2 36.31M yuan 2006 +578%

Ice Age 3 156.9M yuan 2009 +332%

Note: IA3 was truely monster. It even outgrossed Harry Potter 6 Summer 2009 from only less than 300 3D screens.

For comparison:

KFP 186M yuan 2008

KFP2 640M yuan 2011 +244%

Universal's Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, also out July 27, on the other hand, will be totally obviated. Question: Will it pull a Brave, which did even less than 30M yuan in June ? We expect slightly better number than that.

So our final predition for the two animations:

Ice Age Continental Drift 200M yuan ($31M) total 650M yuan ($103M)

Dr. Seuss' The Lorax 18M yuan ($2.85M) total 43M yuan ($6.8M)

[Rudolf]

Do you have data to estimate how much the protection period has gained local movies and how much cinema operators lost because of it? Or is the protection period always in July?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Do you have data to estimate how much the protection period has gained local movies and how much cinema operators lost because of it? Or is the protection period always in July?

Not much data.From protection June 22 to July 20, overal box office about 1.1B yuan. And 1B of that is from local movies. Other 100M mostly is the later run of THG, Mad3. Due to the break out of Painted Skin 2, The 1.1B increased about 40% from same period of last year. Pls note: Last year the same time was also a protection "month"; There was almost no Hollywood releases between KFP2 (May 30) and TF3 (July 21). However we got see hits later like TF3, DH2 (August 4) and Smurfs (8.10) etc. Also note: screens number now (about 12,000) increased 50% from Summer 2011 (less than 8,000, end of June 2011). This August ? No other Hollywood films scheduled so far.For the past 1 year or so, generally when a big Hollywood film opens, the overal weekly box office can increase at least 60% (or double) from same week the year before. But when a local title leads a week, overal revenue will either see small increase or decrease.

[Rudolf]

I understand the reluctance of the Chinese government to hand over their total market to Hollywood. They still want to see Chinese topics to be addressed in movies. But in their place would heaviliy subsidise local movie producers for interesting projects and encourage international coproductions. Not for a Chinese villian in a SH costume film, but things like Marco Polo, Turandot, Fa -Hsien or Zheng-He. Just incorporate some caucasian movie stars and people all over the world will want to see them.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I understand the reluctance of the Chinese government to hand over their total market to Hollywood. They still want to see Chinese topics to be addressed in movies. But in their place would heaviliy subsidise local movie producers for interesting projects and encourage international coproductions. Not for a Chinese villian in a SH costume film, but things like Marco Polo, Turandot, Fa -Hsien or Zheng-He. Just incorporate some caucasian movie stars and people all over the world will want to see them.

It is all about face I suppose. There is a rule for the goverment that local movies should at least acount for 50% of the overal yearly box office. But the thing is, the Chinese movie market is becoming bigger and bigger that local movies can no longer be the leading role in this game. So there are the protection month and bad release schedules for foreign movie.In my opinion, there should not be any protection months. It is not good for theaters and people live on that. Think this: the market cake could be as big as 100B yuan and Hollywood take away 70B yuan and so what ? The Chinese films still get 30B yuan. And that is no where near what they get from an unhealthy market like it now. The breaking out of PS2 tells there are still many people want to see local movies if the movies really attract them. People will always be there if only you make them interested in your products.But the Gov. seems wont do like that. And it is nothing about cultural exports. The officers just think it is good if local films make more than foreign ones at box office. And that will be a good politic bargaining at their superiors.Speaking of corporation with foreign companies and film makers, they are already pushing on that.

[Rudolf]

The problem with a 70B:30B market distribution is that it won't stay that way. Austria had a big movie industry 80-100years ago with hundreds of movies made each year. Later Hollywood's part grew bigger. Then we became part of Germany. After 2nd world war Austrian movies had millions of admissions in Germany, France and Sowjetunion. Then it died away with about 5% market share at the moment. The best case scenario for China is Japan's or France's status.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The problem with a 70B:30B market distribution is that it won't stay that way. Austria had a big movie industry 80-100years ago with hundreds of movies made each year. Later Hollywood's part grew bigger. Then we became part of Germany. After 2nd world war Austrian movies had millions of admissions in Germany, France and Sowjetunion. Then it died away with about 5% market share at the moment. The best case scenario for China is Japan's or France's status.

I kinda agree. Chinese cultue is very different from Americans. People will always be interested in their own movies.

[iceroll]

IA4 will do 100m in China?? That seems really high, I hope we don't get let down again.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

IA4 will do 100m in China?? That seems really high, I hope we don't get let down again.

Actually 80M-ish should be the range in normal case. But considering no big releases in whole August (this could still change as Prometheus might get a release in middle August after all), I bumped it a little to outdo KFP2 ... (Scrat fan ...)Being that said, 160M yuan ($25.4M) opening and 535M yuan ($85M) totals seems more likely though.

[Fake]

I have a feeling IA4 could do well below expectations..... but I had that feeling about Titanic re-release as well, so don't pay any attention.

[Rudolf]

Concerning taste about animated movies China's seems to be nearer to Continental-Europe than America, LatinAmerica, Australia. Japan or UK.

[Tower]

Concerning taste about animated movies China's seems to be nearer to Continental-Europe than America, LatinAmerica, Australia. Japan or UK.

Pixar seems much stronger in continental Europe than in China.