China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

On Friday, April 08, 2016 at 3:23 PM, No Prisoners said:

Im going to track JB and CA3 to see if we can find a multi. Ill keep each movie in one post and edit to make it more accessible. 

 

Jungle Book OD April 15, 2016

                         Maoyan PS

0000 F  4/8.    1.10m

0000 S  4/9     1.33 +20%

0000 S  4/10   1.86 +40%

0000 M 4/11   2.48 +33%

0000 T  4/12   3.67 +50%

0000 W 4/13   5.86 +67%

0000 T  4/14   9.76 +67%

0000 F  4/15 19.10 +96%     Midnight OD

0900 F  4/15 20.00 +  5%      Morning OD

 

OD Total    77.8m      PS Multi 4.1 x 00:00 PS
OW Total 325.0m

Total

OD  Multi

OW Multi

50-66% increases in the final days followed by a 100% increase on the last day is a typical trend.

 

On Monday, April 18, 2016 at 10:35 AM, No Prisoners said:

Maoyan PS multi has been all over the place lately. Going to compare to CBO.

 

CA3 OD May 6, 2016

                           Maoyan.                     CBO

                            MN        OD               MN      OD

0000 W 4/27     0.1m   0.3m

0000 T  4/28     0.8       2.4

0000 F  4/29     1.2       3.6 +50%

0000 S  4/30     1.8       6.2 +72%      2.4m     7.3m

0000 S  5/1       2.1       8.1 +31%       2.9      10.3 +41%     

0000 M 5/2       2.8.    11.9 +47%      3.7       14.2 +39%

0000 T  5/3       3.5     16.3 +37%      4.4       18.5 +31%

0000 W 5/4       4.8     25.4 +56%      5.1       31.1 +68%

0000 T  5/5       6.4     37.9 +50%      5.2       41.4 +33%

0000 F  5/6      18.1    65.8 +75%    13.3       58.9 +44%           

0900 F  5/6                                                             

 

OD Total             PSxMao                    PSxCBO
OW Total 

Total

OD  Multi

OW Multi

Likely to do 2.5- 3x 65.8m. However this year a couple of movies have been 2.2x and TJB was 4x. SW7 tallied PS  until 2am in a last minute rush and had 73m to start the day. 

Could be 150m to 225m. No matter, it's all about WoM . Zoo made only 24m it's first day and wound up with 1.5B.  SW7 made 193m OD and made only 825m.

Flat to up 15% on Saturday- doomed 

Up 30%+ and it could be a runner that Kenya could be proud of.

Edited May 5, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Agafin]

SW7, KFP3, BVS and perhaps CW. It seems like every hyped tentpole is getting overestimated here lately. Movies with no hype like JB or Zoo are the ones to do gangbusters now.

[Mrstickball]

I'd wait to see reviews more than anything. Zoo and TJB had good review scores from Chinese filmgoers. SW7 and BVS got slaughtered in WOM. KFP3 was a victim of its studio's own stupidity on release date. 

[moviesRus]

I'm still confused why TFA got such terrible WOM in China. Even if China isn't big on Star Wars, the plot and spectacle are pretty in line with what China likes.

[snitch]

1 hour ago, Agafin said:

SW7, KFP3, BVS and perhaps CW. It seems like every hyped tentpole is getting overestimated here lately. Movies with no hype like JB or Zoo are the ones to do gangbusters now.

 

What is the situations with Warcraft? Has the marketing stared for it in China?

[POTUS 2020]

12 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

I'm still confused why TFA got such terrible WOM in China. Even if China isn't big on Star Wars, the plot and spectacle are pretty in line with what China likes.

Two reasons I heard and are conflicting.

They didn't grow up with star wars and we're unfamiliar with it unlike transformers

the other was they don't like remakes.

Of course if you don't know the franchise then it's not a remake if you didn't see the first one.

Oh, and light Saber fighting is sub par to Chinese sword play

 

Anyone know the early WoM on this yet?

Edited May 5, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Olive]

17 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

I'm still confused why TFA got such terrible WOM in China. Even if China isn't big on Star Wars, the plot and spectacle are pretty in line with what China likes.

We have seen too many sword fightings in Wuxia movies, lightsabre fights look lame and stupid to many people.

[moviesRus]

2 minutes ago, Olive said:

We have seen too many sword fightings in Wuxia movies, lightsabre fights look lame and stupid to many people.

 

Is Game of Thrones super boring to people there too? lol

[Olive]

Just now, moviesRus said:

 

Is Game of Thrones super boring to people there too? lol

No, very popular and it's one of best-reviewed TV series.

[moviesRus]

2 minutes ago, Olive said:

No, very popular and it's one of best-reviewed TV series.

 

But I mean aren't those sword fights very slow and dull in comparison too?

[Olive]

Just now, moviesRus said:

 

But I mean aren't those sword fights very slow and dull in comparison too?

Other aspects are strong though, personally not a fan.

[ttr]

We have seen too many sword fightings in Wuxia movies, lightsabre fights look lame and stupid to many people.

You think that Rogue One will have that disadvantage? I mean, might be that there won't be any lightsabrefights...

[jiangsen]

26 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Two reasons I heard and are conflicting.

They didn't grow up with star wars and we're unfamiliar with it unlike transformers

the other was they don't like remakes.

Of course if you don't know the franchise then it's not a remake if you didn't see the first one.

Oh, and light Saber fighting is sub par to Chinese sword play

 

Anyone know the early WoM on this yet?

8.4 currently on Douban but assume that's mostly the diehard fans coming back from midnight screenings. https://movie.douban.com/subject/25820460/?from=showing. Let's see if it dips.

 

Ultron is 7.1...doubt it'll fall that low.

[Mrstickball]

Ironically, its jumped to 8.5 in the past hour with 5,463 reviews. 

[Lordmandeep]

I think it will have decent legs in China rather then a huge record start.

[fmpro]

42 minutes ago, Mrstickball said:

Ironically, its jumped to 8.5 in the past hour with 5,463 reviews. 

 

Thats actully pretty good for a CB movie i think. Lets hope it stays up there

[fmpro]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I think it will have decent legs in China rather then a huge record start.

 

I want both 

[Lordmandeep]

As long it Crosses 200 million us I be happy 

[Olive]

OD showtimes close to 90k, widest for a foreign release I think.

It could hit 10K with easy if runtime being shorter.

[POTUS 2020]

	TF4						AOU					CA3
Day	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Comp TF4	Comp AOU
Tues						212			212	34							-34.3
Wed						123	-42.1%		335	54							-54.1
Thur						91	-26.0%		426	69							-68.8
Fri	195			195	32	127	40.0%		554	89	200			200	31	-1.2	-58.6
Sat	223	14.4%		418	69	236	85.2%		790	127				200	31	-37.8	-96.6
Sun	213	-4.6%		631	103	165	-29.9%		955	154				200	31	-72.6	-123.3
Mon	123	-42.1%		754	124	45	-72.6%		1001	161				200	31	-92.8	-130.6
Tues	112	-8.9%		866	142	41	-9.7%	-80.7%	1042	168				200	31	-111.2	-137.2
Wed	95	-15.7%		961	157	50	22.0%	-59.3%	1092	176				200	31	-126.7	-145.3
Thur	84	-11.0%		1045	171	31	-38.0%	-65.9%	1123	181				200	31	-140.5	-150.3
Fri	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186	42	35.5%	-67.0%	1165	188				200	31	-154.8	-157.1
Sat	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207	78	85.7%	-66.9%	1243	200				200	31	-176.0	-169.7
Sun	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226	59	-24.4%	-64.3%	1302	210				200	31	-195.4	-179.2
Mon	54	-58.3%	-56.1%	1433	235	15.8	-73.2%	-65.2%	1317	212				200	31	-204.2	-181.7
Tue	53	-1.9%	-52.8%	1486	244	10.8	-31.6%	-73.7%	1328	214				200	31	-212.9	-183.5
Wed	43	-18.9%	-54.5%	1529	251	9.5	-12.0%	-81.0%	1338	216				200	31	-220.0	-185.0
Thu	39	-9.3%	-53.7%	1568	257	8.4	-11.6%	-72.9%	1346	217				200	31	-226.3	-186.3
Fri	42	7.7%	-51.8%	1610	264	11.9	41.7%	-71.7%	1358	219				200	31	-233.2	-188.3
Sat	62	47.6%	-52.2%	1672	274	26.0	118.5%	-66.7%	1384	223				200	31	-243.4	-192.5
Sun	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284	24.0	-7.7%	-59.3%	1408	227				200	31	-252.9	-196.3
Mon	26	-55.2%	-51.9%	1756	288	25.0	4.2%	58.2%	1433	231				200	31	-257.2	-200.4
Tue	28	7.7%	-47.2%	1784	293	4.0	-84.0%	-63.0%	1437	232				200	31	-261.8	-201.0
Wed	23	-17.9%	-46.5%	1807	296	3.5	-12.5%	-63.2%	1441	232				200	31	-265.5	-201.6
Thu	18	-21.7%	-53.8%	1825	299	3.0	-14.3%	-64.3%	1444	233				200	31	-268.5	-202.1
				1900	319				1450	236

TF4 opened on a summer Friday, had summer weekdays fro a boost and held very good at a 50% WoW average

AoU is more comparable. A Tuesday open deflated the weekend by at least 25%. WoM was mixed and less than average holds.

I threw in 200m including midnights for now.  could be 185m, +/- 10%. will know better at 1400

 

CA3 is at 5% currency disadvantage to AoU