China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Gavin Feng]

A high profile prediction of Cap 3.

[Pypa94]

16 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

A high profile prediction of Cap 3.

Awesomeness and incredibleness if that really happens xd fingers crossed! 400 mln and beating FF7 is too beautiful to believe but I do believe in that! ;D

Edited May 2, 2016 by Pypa94

[jiangsen]

1 hour ago, Pypa94 said:

Awesomeness and incredibleness if that really happens xd fingers crossed! 400 mln and beating FF7 is too beautiful to believe but I do believe in that! ;D

 

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

A high profile prediction of Cap 3.

Your Friday to Saturday bumps are way too optimistic in my opinion. The doubling from Fri-Sat happens mostly with films targeted to kids. $300M-$350M more likely.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, jiangsen said:

 

Your Friday to Saturday bumps are way too optimistic in my opinion. The doubling from Fri-Sat happens mostly with films targeted to kids. $300M-$350M more likely.

Actually Aou and spidey had 75-100% sat bumps. Kids movies can do 150-200% bumps

 

TJB on course for 50m today down 28%

BoL heading to 65m down 46%.

That bodes well for TJB to keep more shows on Friday 

Edited May 2, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Fake]

I am expecting something around 2B ($300M) for CW..... beating FF would be very tough.

[Lihongkim]

2 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Actually Aou and spidey had 75-100% sat bumps. Kids movies can do 150-200% bumps

 

TJB on course for 50m today down 28%

BoL heading to 65m down 46%.

That bodes well for TJB to keep more shows on Friday 

Nope, Should be 80-100. It's very good number for a romantic film. 

Edited May 2, 2016 by Lihongkim

[Aristis]

4 hours ago, jiangsen said:

 

Your Friday to Saturday bumps are way too optimistic in my opinion. The doubling from Fri-Sat happens mostly with films targeted to kids. $300M-$350M more likely.

I think (especially Marvel-) Superhero-Movies are considered family movies.

[POTUS 2020]

On 4/3/2016 at 3:42 PM, firedeep said:

LOL why don't you just define 100% decrease as "real" drop. 

 

2016 wont be down 20%, neither will Apr. Your predict of sub 20% (increase or decrease) will fail.

 

 

 

On 4/30/2016 at 8:52 PM, jiangsen said:

April 2015 - 4.09B RMB

April 2016 - 3.11B RMB (- 24%)

 

Biggest YOY monthly drop in recent history

 

On 4/3/2016 at 8:14 PM, firedeep said:

if a person are so down on China's economy and its box office, why bother keep tracking it, posting socalled insights and predictions all day, which most of the time are negative, and laughablely off.

 

I am annoyed. got put someone on agnore list.

Down 24%. 

 

TJB going to make it over 50 today

Panda was able to make 25m with 6% of shows during holiday time with 500m in competition. 

TMK  was able to make 70m with 14% against 350m of competition on a July saturday.

Neither had premium screens.

It's possible that TJB could make 30m+ this sat with 8% screens. 20m is very doable.

With today's amazing hold, I think 40m is the low end for the weekend. 50m+ possible

1B locked for the run. Could happen by sun or monday. 1.020B total.  1.060B  if it gets an extention.

 

Edited May 2, 2016 by No Prisoners

[GOXOG]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

 

 

Down 24%. 

 

TJB going to make it over 50 today

Panda was able to make 25m with 6% of shows during holiday time with 500m in competition. 

TMK  was able to make 70m with 14% against 350m of competition on a July saturday.

Neither had premium screens.

It's possible that TJB could make 30m+ this sat with 8% screens. 20m is very doable.

With today's amazing hold, I think 40m is the low end for the weekend. 50m+ possible

1B locked for the run. Could happen by sun or monday. 1.020B total.  1.060B  if it gets an extention.

 

it's hard for people to accept they are wrong.

personally i found your data is mostly correct and useful

[POTUS 2020]

47 minutes ago, GOXOG said:

it's hard for people to accept they are wrong.

personally i found your data is mostly correct and useful

I appreciate that.

 

 I know I am wrong as well at times and have no problem admitng it or explain why. .Metrics can go off a bit. Especially with CBO.  I was a trader, realizing a mistake and making adjustments is key to survival. 

I am long oil and silver but about to get out $48 a $18.50. Short AAPL and FB. Lets see how that works out. I follow BO to keep my mind sharp on the weekends.

 

 

[Quigley]

What about predictions for May? Are there any chances of it making 5B yuan?

[Lihongkim]

23 minutes ago, Quigley said:

What about predictions for May? Are there any chances of it making 5B yuan?

who dare to make prediction, see above quote. 

[fastclock]

A lookback at Zootopia's run in China vs. the still on-going run in the US. Except for the beginning where WOM was building up and the faster drop-off of the 6-week run, the chart looks very similar for both of them.

 

[Olive]

Monday Est
Book of Love  - 90m/444M  
The Jungle Book - 47.3M/903M 

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, Quigley said:

What about predictions for May? Are there any chances of it making 5B yuan?

Doubtful. It took summer weekdays, 3 big movies to coexist and a number of other releases to make 5.5B  last July.

May will be over 650m when CA3 opens. BOL, TJB and other hold overs may add 400m more. Even if CA3 did 2B, I don't see anything else that could do 1B in may. There aren't any large local films to be released in the wake of CA3. Angry birds and divergent(meh) are due out on the 20th and will have 2 weekends before the month ends.. 

I would say 4B possible, but not much more, if CA3 performs well.

Last year, AOU was nearly 1/2 of may with 1.445B. 

 

[Pypa94]

7 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Doubtful. It took summer weekdays, 3 big movies to coexist and a number of other releases to make 5.5B  last July.

May will be over 650m when CA3 opens. BOL, TJB and other hold overs may add 400m more. Even if CA3 did 2B, I don't see anything else that could do 1B in may. There aren't any large local films to be released in the wake of CA3. Angry birds and divergent(meh) are due out on the 20th and will have 2 weekends before the month ends.. 

I would say 4B possible, but not much more, if CA3 performs well.

Last year, AOU was nearly 1/2 of may with 1.445B. 

 

Maybe X-Men breaks out?

Edited May 3, 2016 by Pypa94

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Pypa94 said:

Maybe X-Mex breaks out?

I didn't see it in the release thread. I assumed it would be june. If that and or Alice open the last weekend of May then they could take take it deeper into the 4Bs with everything else going well.

[Pypa94]

3 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

I didn't see it in the release thread. I assumed it would be june. If that and or Alice open the last weekend of May then they could take take it deeper into the 4Bs with everything else going well.

On 25.04.2016 at 5:06 AM, Olive said:

It seems that Alice 2, X-men and TMNT will all open day and date with DOM, so don't expect any late legs for CA3 even it has good WOM.

CA3 -5.6

Alice 2/X-men -5.27

TMNT2 - 6.3

Huge competition on fourth weekend of CA3, Both Alice 2 and Apocalypse are 1B contenders.

Well ,AOU made 95% of its gross in first three weeks, so don't be so worried at least CA3 has a better release date than the other 3 movies mentioned.

 

I don't know it's official yet or not but Olive posted that couple days ago

[Lihongkim]

No big local movie releases in May. The whole month depends on imports, CA3, Alice 2, (If)X-Men...

Hit local movie maybe start from June. 9

 

[Olive]