China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, GOXOG said:

u have any predict for Civil war ?

lots of predictions including mine subject to change, check out them out below and enter contest

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/21571-captain-america-cw-contest-gold-and-premium-account-awarded/

 

[Quigley]

Can someone please give monthly data either today or tomorrow and year-to-date box office gross + comparison with last year. Thanks.

[Pypa94]

57 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Can someone please give monthly data either today or tomorrow and year-to-date box office gross + comparison with last year. Thanks.

There is everything I guess

[Quigley]

Including April obviously...

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, Quigley said:

Including April obviously...

April going to be down about 900m 

3.1B-22%

 

 

Noon update May Day weekend.

It's going to be good saturday/Sunday. Holiday movie going kicking in.

Book of love and other releases looking to bump small and hold flat or better tomorrow on the holiday.

TJB maybe up 150%+ and be possibly approach 50m. 

 

An optimistic possibility

TJB 735m

S 50M

S 50M

M 35M.       870m total 

T-Th  30m  900m

By coming in a strong second it keeps 8% of shows and being 4 quadrant it coexists with CA3 like TMK did with MH & JBL and holds -40%. 

F  12m

S  29m

S  22m          963m

M-Th  18m 

FSS.   30m   Finishes strong or gets 2 week ext.

1.01B  Total.  

Edited April 30, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Olive]

TJB will lose all premium/IMAX screens to CA3 next weekend...

 

It will beat EP7 easily, but it cost way less marketing budget than that.I've heard EP7 spent more than half of Disney's yearly marketing budget.

 

[Fake]

TJB looking at a huge jump today..... well over 40M. Maybe even 45M!

 

Curious to see how close to 1B it can get.

[POTUS 2020]

29 minutes ago, Fake said:

TJB looking at a huge jump today..... well over 40M. Maybe even 45M!

 

Curious to see how close to 1B it can get.

Yeah it's pacing over 3m per hour. High 40s, a shot at 50m

We'll see how it performs without premium screens next week. I think it gets close to 1b. Maybe it gets an extention like zoo did with the lack of new competition until 27th.

Edited April 30, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Olive]

Saturday Est
Book of Love  - 121m/331M +10%
The Jungle Book - 51.2M/786M +170%

[POTUS 2020]

TJB 39% WOW hold as hoped for.

It bumps from 13% to 16% shows  tomorrow's holiday. Pre-sales slightly ahead.  Maybe 55m+ for Sunday

BoL PS down a few percent

Edited April 30, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Mrstickball]

Its unreal to think that TJB is looking at a $20m THIRD weekend in China. Just wow. 

[Jack]

Incorrect reasons, or absence of reasons, comes incorrect prediction.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Jack said:

Incorrect reasons, or absence of reasons, comes incorrect prediction.

The unknown. The holiday weekend is a wild card. 3 of the 4 releases aren't doing well, that gave TJB a better chance.

It's blowing up today. Running at 6m per hour instead of 3.5m. BOL is looking to be flat, but TJB is going to bump big. For now I say

60m locked

70m probable

80m posdible

Today could be pre-sale heavy for the afternoon/eve due to the holiday and the numbers could slow down later. Will know better by 1400

Should be close to 900m tomorrow. 930m by CA3.

in 3 days 1B has gone from impossible, to unlikely to probable

[POTUS 2020]

TJB is going to do 70m today. 40m tomorrow.

1B not quite locked yet but very likely.

The 3 new releases were flat to down slightly while TJB was up 40% from yesterday

Edited May 1, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Gavin Feng]

46 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

TJB is going to do 70m today. 40m tomorrow.

1B not quite locked yet but very likely.

￥900M was my expection.

[Olive]

Sunday Est
Book of Love  - 117m/349M -4%
The Jungle Book - 68.3M/853M +33% 

[Olive]

I seriously underestimated what TJB can make in this holiday weekend, thanks to the openers' underperformance, TJB now has a small chance to pass 1B.

Will reach 950M  when CW hits, around 980M finish seems more probable.

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Olive said:

I seriously underestimated what TJB can make in this holiday weekend, thanks to the openers' underperformance, TJB now has a small chance to pass 1B.

Will reach 950M  when CW hits, around 980M finish seems more probable.

I was thinking 900m by tomorrow.  930 thru wed. This weekend would have been 110m if it wasn't a holiday, even if it takes a 75% hit next weekend from 110m, that would bring to 960. 18m midweek then the final weekend which usually has a strong holds for popular movies like AOU and FF7 for last minute moviegoers. It'll be close. If it can hold 60% against CA3 then it has it. It may lose premium screens, but kids under 10 and most women won't be going to  CA3.

Edited May 1, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

On 4/8/2016 at 3:23 PM, No Prisoners said:

Im going to track JB and CA3 to see if we can find a multi. Ill keep each movie in one post and edit to make it more accessible. 

 

Jungle Book OD April 15, 2016

                         Maoyan PS

0000 F  4/8.    1.10m

0000 S  4/9     1.33 +20%

0000 S  4/10   1.86 +40%

0000 M 4/11   2.48 +33%

0000 T  4/12   3.67 +50%

0000 W 4/13   5.86 +67%

0000 T  4/14   9.76 +67%

0000 F  4/15 19.10 +96%     Midnight OD

0900 F  4/15 20.00 +  5%      Morning OD

 

OD Total    77.8m      PS Multi 4.1 x 00:00 PS
OW Total 325.0m

Total

OD  Multi

OW Multi

50-66% increases in the final days followed by a 100% increase on the last day is a typical trend.

 

On 4/18/2016 at 10:35 AM, No Prisoners said:

Maoyan PS multi has been all over the place lately. Going to compare to CBO.

 

CA3 OD May 6, 2016

                           Maoyan.                     CBO

                            MN        OD               MN      OD

0000 W 4/27     0.1m   0.3m

0000 T  4/28     0.8       2.4

0000 F  4/29     1.2       3.6 +50%

0000 S  4/30     1.8       6.2 +72%      2.4m     7.3m

0000 S  5/1       2.1       8.1 +31%       2.9      10.3 +41%     

0000 M 5/2       2.8.    11.9 +47%      3.7       14.2 +39%

0000 T  5/3

0000 W 5/4

0000 T  5/5

0000 F  5/6                                                       

0900 F  5/6                                                             

 

OD Total             PSxMao                    PSxCBO
OW Total 

Total

OD  Multi

OW Multi

The pace needs to pick up to 60-66% increases tomorrow to have shot at 100m+ in presales. It was a busy holiday weekend, perhaps the presales will pick up a bit.

Edited May 1, 2016 by No Prisoners

[seduh]

great hold for TJB!!!!